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Then vs. Now · File No. 261111-900

Donalds said more oil flows through Hormuz than before the war. Shipping data says no

Florida's Republican governor-elect told NBC that more oil moves through the Strait of Hormuz now than before the Iran war. PolitiFact rated the claim Mostly False. Several ship trackers show that oil traffic through the strait is still below prewar levels, even though gas prices are now falling.

By the Receipts Desk · · 4 min read

Every quote in this story (4) was matched word for word against its source. How we work

My clippings
Byron Donalds
Byron Donalds. Photo: United States Congress, Public domain

On Sunday, Nov. 8, Florida Gov.-elect Byron Donalds, a Republican, went on NBC's Meet the Press to explain why gas prices have climbed. He blamed higher insurance costs for tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow sea lane leaving the Persian Gulf. Then he added that "there's more oil going through the strait today than there was pre-war." 2

On Wednesday, the fact-checking site PolitiFact rated that claim Mostly False 1. It found that oil leaving the wider Persian Gulf region had matched or beaten prewar levels on some days. But the amount moving through the strait itself is still lower than it was before the Iran war began 1.

On tapeNBC News · Nov 8
Nov. 8: Gov.-elect Byron Donalds interviewed on NBC's Meet the Press about his victory and Republicans' performance.Video: NBC News on YouTube, “Byron Donalds says GOP needs to take responsibility for the economy to regain trust: Full interview”. It plays from YouTube when you press play.
Byron Donalds
even though there's more oil going through the strait today than there was pre-war.
Byron Donalds, Florida governor-elect, R-Fla.2

What the ship trackers show

Companies that track tankers by satellite do not all count the same way, and their prewar baselines differ. On one point, though, they mostly agree: traffic through the strait has not fully come back. Kpler, a data firm, found that flows through Hormuz averaged 10.5 million barrels a day from early October, compared with a prewar average of 13.5 million, according to a Reuters analysis published Wednesday 3.

Kpler also counted oil sent by pipelines and other routes that skip the strait. With those included, average Gulf crude exports since early October were 16.7 million barrels a day. That is just short of the prewar level of 17 million 3. In other words, the region is getting close, but it is not ahead, and only part of that oil passes through Hormuz.

From Channel GOPJeffries backs impeaching Hegseth over Iran warHakeem Jeffries · 348 plays · captioned, with the source named

Other counts show a similar picture. For the week ending Oct. 18, Kpler put Hormuz traffic at about 14 million barrels a day, or 82% of prewar levels, PolitiFact reported 1. Tanker Trackers, another monitoring service, found that Middle East crude exports averaged about 18.7 million barrels a day in the week ending Nov. 5. Of that, 13.1 million went through Hormuz, below prewar levels 1.

The trend was also heading down. Vortexa, a third tracker, said Gulf exports of crude oil and refined fuels fell to about 17.1 million barrels a day in October, from 18.9 million in September. That was about three-quarters of prewar levels 4. Refined fuels like diesel were running at just over half of normal 4. Donalds did not respond when PolitiFact asked for comment 1.

Then: the administration's own victory lap

Donalds is not the first Republican to claim the problem was solved. On Aug. 11, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said that thanks to the U.S. military and Gulf allies, "total oil flows are currently averaging approximately 15 million barrels per day." 5 He also said that more than 20 million barrels left the Gulf on a single Sunday, Aug. 9, which was above the prewar norm 5.

The maritime news site gCaptain pointed out that the 15 million figure was about 5 million barrels a day below the International Energy Agency's estimate of 19.87 million barrels a day through Hormuz in 2025 5. A record day is not the same as a recovery.

Ten days later, Donalds was running for governor and was asked about prices at the pump. "Do I want to see $4 gas? No, I do not. I don't want anybody to have to pay that," he told WLRN, South Florida's public radio station 6.

Byron Donalds
Do I want to see $4 gas? No, I do not. I don't want anybody to have to pay that,
Byron Donalds, then-Republican candidate for Florida governor, R-Fla.6

Now: a safer story than the facts support

Months later, gas is still near that line. AAA, the auto club, reported a national average of $4.10 for regular gas on Nov. 5. That was down about 26 cents from a month earlier but about $1.02 higher than a year before 7. AAA said pump prices "remain the highest they've ever been during this time of year." 7

The strait is still dangerous. The International Maritime Organization, the United Nations shipping agency, logged 131 confirmed incidents near Hormuz from Feb. 28 through Nov. 9. Thirty-five of them came in October, the most of any month in the conflict 3. Freight and insurance costs are still about 10 times prewar levels, Reuters reported 3.

Experts told PolitiFact the traffic that has come back is driven by money, not by safer waters. Tanker charter rates have reportedly reached about $1 million a day 1. Clark Williams-Derry, an analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, described the wartime shipping situation bluntly.

It's the exact opposite of a success story,
Clark Williams-Derry, analyst, Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis1

That matters because saying more oil is moving than before the war suggests the supply problem is over. If that were true, the only thing still keeping prices high would be insurance companies. The data show something different: less oil through the strait, fewer refined fuels, and record attacks on ships. Those are war costs, and drivers are paying them.

What Democrats are saying

On the same NBC program, Kansas Sen.-elect Adam Hamilton, a Democrat, said voters had told him, "Please help us with the cost of living." 2 He made clear where he would start.

I am very interested in ending the war in Iran as quickly as possible.
Adam Hamilton, U.S. senator-elect, D-Kan.2

Donalds himself told NBC that once the conflict ends, "we'll see those gas prices come down very, very rapidly." 2 Oil markets may already be betting on that. Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell below $90 a barrel this week for the first time since late August, after peaking at $118 on Oct. 30 3. The pattern is this: prices fall when the war looks closer to ending, not because the oil is already flowing freely.

The Record

  1. Energy Secretary Chris Wright says total Gulf oil flows average about 15 million barrels a day and that more than 20 million barrels left the Gulf on Aug. 9 5
  2. Donalds tells WLRN he does not want to see $4 gas 6
  3. Brent crude peaks at $118 a barrel 3
  4. On NBC's Meet the Press, Donalds says more oil goes through the strait than before the war 2
  5. PolitiFact rates Donalds' Hormuz claim Mostly False 1
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Sources

  1. PolitiFact, “Is more oil going through Hormuz than before the Iran war, as Byron Donalds said? No.” (2026-11-11). politifact.com/factchecks/2026/nov/11/byron-donalds/florida-
  2. NBC News, “Meet the Press transcript, November 8, 2026” (2026-11-08). nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/transcripts/meet-press-november-8
  3. Reuters (via Cyprus Mail), “Gulf oil faces costly new reality as Iran war drags on” (2026-11-11). cyprus-mail.com/2026/11/11/gulf-oil-faces-costly-new-reality
  4. Reuters (via 93.3 The Drive), “Gulf oil flows dip in October from post-Iran war high, data shows” (2026-11-03). 933thedrive.com/2026/11/03/gulf-oil-flows-dip-in-october-fro
  5. gCaptain, “Trump administration says Gulf oil flows recover to 15 million barrels a day” (2026-08-11). gcaptain.com/trump-administration-says-gulf-oil-flows-recove
  6. WLRN, “Byron Donalds promotes his economic plans for Florida, defends Trump's record” (2026-08-21). wlrn.org/government-politics/2026-08-21/byron-donalds-promot
  7. AAA, “Today's AAA National Average” (2026-11-05). gasprices.aaa.com/?p=5262

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