Wednesday, October 21, 2026 Vol. I · No. 22 · Late Edition Print size
Election Day 13 days to Nov. 3 Make your plan → The GOP Files Receipts on the Republican-run Washington · Sourced · Dated · On the record On Instagram 92K plays and counting @thegopfiles →
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Election Day, Nov. 3

Candidates to Watch

Democrats running to take back Congress and the statehouses, and the rising stars already in office. Closest races first. Pin one on.

The closest races

  1. U.S. Senate — Alaska Mary Peltola vs. Dan Sullivan Toss-up Peltola 48.2% 42.6% Sullivan Give
  2. U.S. Senate — Iowa Josh Turek vs. Ashley Hinson Toss-up Turek 48% 45% Hinson Give
  3. U.S. Senate — Maine Troy Jackson vs. Susan Collins Toss-up Jackson 49% 47% Collins Give
  4. U.S. Senate — Michigan Abdul El-Sayed vs. Mike Rogers Toss-up El-Sayed 50% 48% Rogers Give
  5. U.S. Senate — Texas James Talarico vs. Ken Paxton Toss-up Talarico 47% 45% Paxton Give
  6. U.S. Senate — Ohio (special) Sherrod Brown vs. Jon Husted Toss-up Brown 48% 44% Husted Give
  7. Governor — Georgia Keisha Lance Bottoms vs. Rick Jackson Toss-up Bottoms 45% 46% Jackson Give
  8. Governor — Nevada Aaron Ford vs. Joe Lombardo Toss-up Ford 40% 42% Lombardo Give
  9. Governor — Ohio Amy Acton vs. Vivek Ramaswamy Toss-up Acton 50% 43% Ramaswamy Give
  10. Governor — Wisconsin David Crowley vs. Tom Tiffany Toss-up Crowley 46% 42% Tiffany Give
  11. U.S. House — Arizona's 6th District JoAnna Mendoza vs. Juan Ciscomani Toss-up Mendoza 47% 45% Ciscomani Give
  12. U.S. House — Colorado's 8th District Manny Rutinel vs. Gabe Evans Toss-up Rutinel 46% 48% Evans Give
  13. U.S. House — Michigan's 7th District William Lawrence vs. Tom Barrett Toss-up Lawrence 49% 47% Barrett Give
  14. U.S. House — New York's 17th District Cait Conley vs. Mike Lawler Toss-up Conley 48% 46% Lawler Give
  15. U.S. House — Ohio's 7th District Brian Poindexter vs. Max Miller Toss-up Poindexter 47% 33% Miller Give
  16. U.S. House — Pennsylvania's 8th District Paige Cognetti vs. Rob Bresnahan Toss-up Cognetti 47% 45% Bresnahan Give
  17. U.S. House — Texas's 15th District Bobby Pulido vs. Monica De La Cruz Toss-up Pulido 51% 44% De La Cruz Give
  18. U.S. House — Virginia's 1st District Shannon Taylor vs. Rob Wittman Toss-up Taylor 50% 46% Wittman Give
  19. U.S. House — Virginia's 2nd District Elaine Luria vs. Jen Kiggans Toss-up Luria 46% 43% Kiggans Give
  20. U.S. Senate — Minnesota Peggy Flanagan vs. Michele Tafoya Lean D Flanagan 45% 42% Tafoya Give
  21. U.S. Senate — New Hampshire Chris Pappas vs. John E. Sununu Lean D Pappas 50% 43% Sununu Give
  22. Governor — Iowa Rob Sand vs. Zach Lahn Lean D Sand 50% 45% Lahn Give
  23. Governor — Michigan Jocelyn Benson vs. John James Lean D Benson 50% 40% James Give
  24. Governor — Arizona Katie Hobbs vs. Andy Biggs Lean D Hobbs 47% 34% Biggs Give
  25. U.S. House — Arizona's 1st District Amish Shah vs. Jay Feely Lean D Shah 44% 41% Feely Give
  26. U.S. House — Iowa's 1st District Christina Bohannan vs. Mariannette Miller-Meeks Lean D Bohannan 40% 35% Miller-Meeks Give
  27. U.S. House — Iowa's 3rd District Sarah Trone Garriott vs. Zach Nunn Lean D Give
  28. U.S. House — New Jersey's 7th District Rebecca Bennett vs. Tom Kean Jr. Lean D Bennett 47% 42% Kean Give
  29. U.S. House — Pennsylvania's 7th District Bob Brooks vs. Ryan Mackenzie Lean D Brooks 45% 40% Mackenzie Give
  30. U.S. House — Pennsylvania's 10th District Janelle Stelson vs. Scott Perry Lean D Stelson 49% 46% Perry Give
  31. U.S. House — Wisconsin's 3rd District Rebecca Cooke vs. Derrick Van Orden Lean D Give

Ratings from the nonpartisan forecasters named on each candidate's page. Polls are single snapshots, not predictions.

U.S. Senate

Governor

U.S. House

JoAnna Mendoza U.S. House — Arizona's 6th District Toss-up First run Manny Rutinel U.S. House — Colorado's 8th District Toss-up First run William Lawrence U.S. House — Michigan's 7th District Toss-up First run Cait Conley U.S. House — New York's 17th District Toss-up First run Brian Poindexter U.S. House — Ohio's 7th District Toss-up First run Paige Cognetti U.S. House — Pennsylvania's 8th District Toss-up First run Bobby Pulido U.S. House — Texas's 15th District Toss-up First run Shannon Taylor U.S. House — Virginia's 1st District Toss-up First run Elaine Luria U.S. House — Virginia's 2nd District Toss-up Amish Shah U.S. House — Arizona's 1st District Lean D First run Christina Bohannan U.S. House — Iowa's 1st District Lean D First run Sarah Trone Garriott U.S. House — Iowa's 3rd District Lean D First run Rebecca Bennett U.S. House — New Jersey's 7th District Lean D First run Bob Brooks U.S. House — Pennsylvania's 7th District Lean D First run Janelle Stelson U.S. House — Pennsylvania's 10th District Lean D First run Rebecca Cooke U.S. House — Wisconsin's 3rd District Lean D First run Denise Powell U.S. House — Nebraska's 2nd District Likely D First run Randy Villegas U.S. House — California's 22nd District First run

Rising stars in office

Profiles are compiled from public reporting, linked on each page. Inclusion is editorial, not an endorsement by any campaign, and nobody paid to be here.