The Trump administration carried out about 980,000 deportations in the first 18 months of President Donald Trump's second term, according to an analysis released Thursday by the Migration Policy Institute (MPI), a think tank that studies immigration 17. The count covers Jan. 20, 2025, through July 31, 2026 2.
The report's most striking finding concerns who is being removed. Only about 20% of those deportations involved people with a criminal conviction 2. Among people deported after living in the United States for at least two years, 71% had no conviction. Among those who had been here at least 10 years, 61% had none 2.
The Associated Press noted that these findings come even though the administration says it is targeting the "worst of the worst" 1. Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin used that phrase in a June interview with Breitbart, in which he said deportations in 2026 would top 2025 4.
We're on a path this year, 2026, to well surpass the deportations we did in 2025
Up from Biden's years, but short of the promise
The administration promised 1 million deportations a year and has not reached that number 12. MPI estimates about 620,000 deportations in fiscal year 2025, the federal government's budget year. It projects about 660,000 for fiscal 2026, which is 26% above the average yearly pace under President Joe Biden 2. Both figures are far below the roughly 1.86 million deportations recorded in fiscal 2000 under President Bill Clinton 12.
Of the 980,000 total, about 580,000 were formal removals. The rest were other forced returns 7. Another 170,000 people took "voluntary departure" after January 2025, which the report calls a record high 1. Advocates told the AP that some people agree to leave mainly to get out of detention by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) 1.
Most deportations still start at the border. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) stopped and turned back about 340,000 people there. About 340,000 more were arrested at the border and later deported by ICE, and about 300,000 were arrested inside the country 2.
The arrests inside the country are where the growth is. Those cases made up 28% of deportations in 2025, 34% in the first half of 2026 and 39% by July 2026 2. Deportations of people arrested inside the country rose from about 8,000 a month in the first three months of the term to about 19,000 a month from May to July 2026 2.
Dueling numbers, and a data blackout
The government's own figures are much larger. On Tuesday, the White House released a document listing what it calls its immigration achievements, including a claim that 1.2 million migrants have been deported or removed during Trump's second term 1. The administration also says more than 3 million unauthorized immigrants have left since January 2025, including about 2.2 million who left on their own 2. According to the AP, nobody had explained the gap between the government's numbers and MPI's by the time its story was published 1.
Checking the claims is hard because the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) stopped regularly publishing these figures in January 2025 1. A White House spokesperson referred questions to DHS 3.
The report was written by Marc Rosenblum, who led DHS's Office of Homeland Security Statistics until he resigned in July. When he left, he criticized what he called the administration's "war on immigrants" and "war on facts" 2. MPI estimates that 790,000 to 1.9 million immigrants who had lived here at least a year left through deportation or self-departure during the 18 months it studied 2. Counting newer arrivals and people turned away at the border, the range is 1.3 million to 2.4 million 3.
It's highly unlikely that 3 million total foreign-born [people] departed the United States in the first 18 months
Rosenblum also said, "Most of the numbers are not at all-time highs" 3. Neal Cornett, director of state litigation at the Oversight Project, said he has "no reason to believe it until they release the actual data" when asked about the 3 million figure 3.
Democrats point to deaths and due process
Democrats are focusing on what happens to people while they are held. On Oct. 17, Emiliano Andrade-Covarrubias, a Mexican national who had long been a lawful permanent resident (a green card holder), was found unresponsive at the Rio Grande Processing Center in Laredo, Texas 5. Sen. Alex Padilla, a California Democrat, said his was the 60th death reported in Trump's second term 5. ICE said he received proper medical care while in custody 5.
There have been 27 deaths in ICE custody this year alone.
On Sept. 25, Padilla and Sen. Dick Durbin, an Illinois Democrat, introduced the Immigration Warrant Reform Act 6. It would allow immigration arrests without a warrant only when a person poses an immediate risk and is likely to flee. Anyone arrested without a warrant would get a bond hearing within 24 hours 6. "Every person in America has civil rights," Padilla said 6.
What the numbers tell us
The pattern is clear. The deportation system is growing fastest inside the country, among people who have built lives here, and most of the people it removes have never been convicted of a crime 2. About 15% of ICE deportations, not counting people turned back at the border, involved people who had lived in the U.S. for at least 10 years 2.
That matters because voters are being asked to judge a policy whose basic numbers the government no longer publishes on a regular schedule 1. Republicans control the House, the Senate and the White House. Whether Congress demands that data, or acts on bills like the one from Durbin and Padilla, may depend on who wins on Nov. 3.
The Record
- Trump's second term begins. The Migration Policy Institute's deportation count starts on this date 2.
- Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin tells Breitbart that 2026 deportations will well surpass 2025 4.
- MPI's count ends, at about 980,000 deportations in 18 months; about 20% involved people with criminal convictions 2.
- The White House claims 1.2 million deportations or removals. Sen. Alex Padilla reports the 60th death in ICE custody of Trump's second term 15.
- MPI releases its report finding that deportations are rising but falling short of the 1 million-a-year goal 1.
Sources
- AP (via El Paso Matters), “Deportations climb under Trump but fall short of White House target, a new report finds” (2026-10-22). elpasomatters.org/2026/10/22/deportations-climb-under-trump-
- Newsweek, “Nearly 1 Million Deported from US Under Trump 2.0: Analysis” (2026-10-22). newsweek.com/nearly-1-million-deported-from-us-under-trump-2
- The Washington Sun, “Former DHS Data Chief: White House's Tally of Immigrants Leaving Is 'Highly Unlikely'” (2026-10-22). washingtonsun.com/immigration/former-data-tally-immigrants
- The National News Desk (KMPH), “Secretary Mullin says 2026 deportations will surpass 2025 numbers” (2026-06-29). kmph.com/news/nation-world/secretary-mullin-says-deportation
- International Business Times UK, “Mexico Demands Full Probe Into Mexican's Death in ICE Custody; US Senator Blasts Agency as 'Out of Control'” (2026-10-22). ibtimes.co.uk/mexico-investigation-mexican-national-death-ic
- Office of Sen. Dick Durbin, “Durbin, Padilla Introduce New Legislation To Prevent Unlawful Immigration Arrests & Detentions” (2026-09-25). durbin.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/durbin-padilla-int
- The Rio Times, “Think Tank Counts 980,000 US Deportations to July 2026” (2026-10-22). riotimesonline.com/us-deportations-near-1-million-latin-amer
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