What the public pays: the national debt, tariffs, health premiums and food aid

Starting line: national debt stands at $36.2 trillion on the last reading before the inauguration

$36.21TThe public

Treasury's daily 'Debt to the Penny' record put total public debt outstanding at $36,206,593,315,575 on January 17, 2025, the last business day before Donald Trump was sworn in for his second term. Every later milestone in this chapter is measured against that number.

Source: U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data (Debt to the Penny API)

One Big Beautiful Bill Act signed; CBO: +$3.4 trillion in deficits, 10 million more uninsured

$3.4TThe public

The President signed the tax-and-spending law on July 4, 2025. The Congressional Budget Office's final estimate of the enacted law found it would raise deficits by $3.4 trillion over 2025-2034 (revenues down $4.5 trillion, spending down $1.1 trillion) and increase the number of uninsured Americans by 10 million in 2034, mostly through Medicaid and ACA marketplace changes.

The response: The White House Council of Economic Advisers said the bill would 'slash deficits' through growth, cutting the 2034 deficit to 3.2% of GDP and reducing deficits by $4.5 trillion against a current-policy baseline (whitehouse.gov, June 30, 2025). Speaker Mike Johnson: 'We're not buying the CBO estimates.'

Source: HealthExec (quoting CBO), White House, CBS News

CBO: the new law takes 3.1% of income from the poorest tenth, gives the richest tenth $13,600 a year

$13,600The public

In a letter dated August 11, 2025, CBO estimated the enacted law would cut household resources for the lowest-income tenth of Americans by about 3.1% of income (about $1,200 a year), while the top tenth gains about $13,600 a year, mainly because Medicaid and SNAP cuts fall on the bottom and tax cuts flow to the top. Yale's Budget Lab, adding the 2025 tariffs, put the bottom tenth's loss at about $2,700 a year and the top tenth's gain at nearly $8,000.

The response: The administration has argued tariffs and growth will offset the law's cost; CBO's distributional analysis does not include tariffs (Yale Budget Lab notes the administration 'repeatedly claimed' tariffs should be understood as a fiscal offset).

Source: Thomson Reuters Tax & Accounting, Yale Budget Lab

The other side of the ledger: New Yorker tallies $3.4 billion in presidency-linked family income

$3.4BThe family

The New Yorker's David Kirkpatrick estimated that Trump and his family had taken in about $3.4 billion tied to his two presidencies: $2.37 billion from cryptocurrency, $339.6 million from financial ventures, $270.8 million from hospitality, $116 million from media and $277.7 million from other sources. The figure is an estimate; the Trump Organization does not publish full accounts.

The response: White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told The Independent the claim that Trump profited from office was 'absolutely absurd' and said he had lost hundreds of millions of dollars by serving.

Source: The Independent (via AOL)

Government shuts down for 43 days over expiring ACA subsidies; 750,000 furloughed

$11BThe public

Funding lapsed on October 1, 2025 and was not restored until the President signed P.L. 119-37 on November 12, 2025, a record six-week shutdown. Democrats had demanded an extension of the enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies and a rollback of parts of the July law; Republicans refused. The White House's own shutdown page counted about 750,000 federal employees furloughed, with troops, air traffic controllers and Coast Guard members working unpaid. CBO estimated a permanent loss of about $11 billion in GDP.

The response: The White House's 'Government Shutdown Clock' page blamed Senate Democrats for rejecting a 'clean' continuing resolution and said they sought '$1.5 trillion in new spending.'

Source: Congressional Research Service, White House, HuffPost

East Wing of the White House demolished for a ballroom Trump said would not touch the building

$400MThe President

Demolition crews began tearing down the East Wing on October 20, 2025 for a planned 90,000-square-foot ballroom, then priced at $250 million. In July 2025 Trump had said the ballroom 'won't interfere with the current building' and would be 'near it but not touching it.' By April 2026 the estimate had reached $400 million, and the President's FY2027 budget listed $377 million for White House repairs this year plus $174 million more next year, an 866% jump from the $39 million spent in FY2025.

The response: Trump: the project comes 'with zero cost to the American Taxpayer!' An OMB official told Fortune 'the money mostly comes from donors'; a White House spokesman told FactCheck.org 'The Ballroom will still be paid for with the private funds raised.'

Source: CBS News, Fortune, FactCheck.org

Who pays the tariffs: Kiel study finds Americans bear 96%; NY Fed finds 86-94%

The public

The Kiel Institute analyzed more than 25 million shipment records and found foreign exporters absorbed only about 4% of the 2025 tariffs, with 96% passed to U.S. buyers. A New York Fed study found U.S. firms and consumers bore about 94% of the cost in the first eight months of 2025 and 86% by November. Dallas Fed researchers later found 'full pass-through' to consumer prices, adding about 0.8 points to core inflation.

The response: NEC Director Kevin Hassett called the New York Fed paper 'an embarrassment' and 'the worst paper I've ever seen in the history of the Federal Reserve System,' saying 'incomes are up way more than the cost of living.'

Source: Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Yahoo Finance, Fortune, Peterson Institute for International Economics

ACA subsidies expire: premiums for subsidized enrollees up 114%; sign-ups fall for the first time since 2020

The public

The enhanced ACA premium tax credits lapsed on January 1, 2026 after Congress did not extend them. KFF estimated out-of-pocket premiums rose 114% on average for subsidized enrollees who kept the same plan, and 2026 sign-ups were down by more than a million. By July KFF reported paid-up enrollment fell from 21.8 million to 19.2 million (down 12%), average premium payments rose 58% as people traded down to cheaper plans, and average deductibles rose 37% to $3,786. A KFF poll found 9% of 2025 enrollees were uninsured by March.

The response: The White House shutdown page said Democrats' demand for the subsidies amounted to '$400 billion over a decade for Obamacare subsidies' and was a condition Republicans rejected.

Source: KFF, KFF, CNBC, CNBC

Supreme Court rules 6-3 that the IEEPA tariffs were illegal; $166 billion was collected

$166BThe public

In Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump, Chief Justice Roberts wrote for the Court that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act 'does not authorize the President to impose tariffs'; Justices Thomas, Alito and Kavanaugh dissented. The opinion said nothing about how to refund the roughly $166 billion collected from more than 330,000 importers; Justice Kavanaugh warned the refund process 'is likely to be a mess' and that importers 'may have already passed on costs to consumers.' Within days the President imposed replacement tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974.

The response: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said tariff revenue 'will be little changed' after the ruling because of Section 122; Trump announced a new 10% global tariff, later raised to 15% (CNBC).

Source: Supreme Court of the United States, Congressional Research Service, Skadden

Taxpayer tab for Trump's golf passes $100 million, on pace for $300 million

$101.2MThe President

HuffPost, applying the per-trip costs in a 2019 GAO audit (about $3.4 million per Mar-a-Lago trip, $1.1 million per Bedminster trip, $9.7 million for the 2025 Scotland course-opening trip), counted at least $101.2 million in travel and security spending on golf since the inauguration, with 110 days at his own courses, and projected $300 million by the end of the term. GAO's audit covered aircraft, boats and per-diem costs and excluded salaries.

The response: The White House now lists golf outings as 'executive time'; asked about it, an unsigned statement said 'Executive time refers to executive time.'

Source: HuffPost, GAO

Medicaid work-requirement rule issued: CMS expects 2.3 million to lose coverage in 2027

$2.3MThe public

CMS issued the interim final rule for the law's Medicaid work requirement: 80 hours a month of work, school or volunteering for expansion adults 19-64, starting January 1, 2027. CMS itself projects 2.3 million people lose Medicaid in 2027, rising to as many as 3.3 million; CBO expects more than 5 million to become uninsured. The Urban Institute put combined losses from work rules and more frequent eligibility checks at 4.9 to 10.1 million in 2028.

The response: CMS said the rule includes a broad 'medically frail' exemption, self-attestation and a 30-day cure period; Agriculture Secretary Rollins and Republican leaders describe work requirements as 'a hand up, not a handout.'

Source: Healthcare Dive, Robert Wood Johnson Foundation / Urban Institute

Trump's own filing: $1.2 billion in crypto income in 2025; Forbes puts net worth at $6 billion, up from $2.3 billion in 2024

$1.2BThe President

The President's 927-page annual financial disclosure to the Office of Government Ethics, obtained by the Associated Press, showed about $1.2 billion in 2025 income from crypto businesses: more than $500 million from World Liberty Financial and more than $600 million from CIC Digital's meme-coin sales. AP cited Forbes' estimate that his net worth had risen to $6 billion from $2.3 billion in 2024. Forbes' profile on November 1, 2026 lists $6.5 billion and calls this 'the most lucrative presidency in American history,' largely from crypto.

The response: The White House has said the President's businesses are run by his children and that he has lost money by serving (Leavitt to The Independent, Aug. 2025).

Source: Associated Press (via FOX6), Forbes

Tariff refunds flow to importers who sued, not to shoppers who paid higher prices

$122BThe public

The Court of International Trade's March 4 order directed Customs to refund roughly $165 billion in IEEPA duties through a new system called CAPE; refunds go to the importer of record, not consumers. A July 15 order limited refunds on finally liquidated entries to the roughly 3,700 importers who sued, and the government appealed to the Federal Circuit. By September, CBP had certified about $122 billion including interest for payment; Phase 3 opened October 6, 2026.

The response: The government argued non-litigants are not owed refunds on finally liquidated entries and appealed that part of the order (Holland & Knight).

Source: Holland & Knight, C.H. Robinson, Skadden

National debt hits $40 trillion; interest costs exceed the entire defense budget

$40TThe public

Treasury data showed gross debt topping $40 trillion on August 18, 2026, less than five months after $39 trillion and about $3.8 trillion above the inauguration-eve level. Interest on the debt had cost nearly $1.2 trillion so far in the fiscal year, more than the Pentagon spends; CRFB's Maya MacGuineas noted the debt has doubled in ten years.

Source: CNBC, Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget

Yale Budget Lab: tariffs still cost households about $1,100 a year even after the Supreme Court ruling

$1,100The public

Yale's tariff tracker put the average statutory tariff rate at 11.0% after Section 122 tariffs expired on July 24 and were replaced by Section 301 tariffs, rising to 11.8% by year-end under scheduled increases; it estimates a 0.7% consumer-price effect, about $1,100 a year per household, and $1.9 trillion in revenue over ten years. In 2025 the Lab had estimated the pre-ruling regime at a 17.9% rate costing about $2,400 per household; its one-year review found actual 2025 price effects of 0.5-1%.

The response: Trump, announcing new tariffs on Canada the same week: 'WE DON'T NEED CANADA, THEY NEED US!' The administration maintains that foreign countries pay tariffs and that they amount to a tax cut for Americans.

Source: Yale Budget Lab, ABC News, Yale Budget Lab

About 5 million people have lost SNAP since the law passed; states now pay 75% of administration

$5MThe public

CBPP estimated roughly 5 million Americans, including more than 1.5 million children, had lost SNAP since July 2025 as work rules expanded to adults 55-64 and to parents of children 14 and older. On October 1, 2026 the federal share of SNAP administrative costs fell from 50% to 25%, shifting the rest to states; from FY2028 states with high error rates must also pay up to 15% of benefits. SNAP serves more than 40 million people a month.

The response: Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins: work requirements 'should be a hand up, not a handout.' The White House did not respond to ABC's request for comment.

Source: ABC News, NBC Washington

FY2026 books close: $2.0 trillion deficit, interest up 11%, tariff refunds wipe out $145 billion

$2TThe public

CBO's September Monthly Budget Review put the FY2026 deficit at $2.0 trillion, $218 billion more than FY2025, with net interest up $115 billion (11%). Treasury's Monthly Statement shows customs duties of $317.8 billion gross but $144.6 billion refunded, leaving $173.2 billion net, below FY2025's $194.9 billion; about $130 billion of the $166 billion in illegal IEEPA tariffs had been refunded to businesses by September.

The response: The administration has said tariff revenue would remain strong under replacement authorities (Bessent, Feb. 2026).

Source: American Action Forum (summarizing CBO), U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data (Monthly Treasury Statement API)

Latest reading: $40.59 trillion, up $4.39 trillion since the inauguration

$40.59TThe public

Treasury's Debt to the Penny for October 29, 2026 shows total public debt of $40,593,637,262,883, an increase of about $4.39 trillion (12%) from the $36.21 trillion recorded on January 17, 2025, or roughly $6.9 billion a day. Forbes' real-time estimate of the President's own net worth on November 1, 2026 was $6.5 billion.

Source: U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data (Debt to the Penny API), U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data, Forbes