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Health Care · Report · File No. 261111-454

Alsobrooks and Wyden press HHS on prediction markets tied to drug trials and approvals

Two Democratic senators asked Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. what his department has done about sites that let people bet on clinical trial results and FDA decisions. They warn the bets could distort research on drugs Americans rely on.

By the Kitchen-Table Desk · · 2 min read

Every quote in this story (1) was matched word for word against its source. How we work

My clippings
Ron Wyden
Ron Wyden. Photo: U.S. Senate Photographic Studio, Public domain

Sens. Angela Alsobrooks, D-Md., and Ron Wyden, D-Ore., sent a letter Wednesday to Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. about betting markets tied to drug research. They asked what HHS has done to limit the risks, according to a letter CNBC obtained first 1.

The markets, called event contracts, let people wager on two things. One is the results of clinical trials. The other is whether the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approves a drug 1.

What the senators say is at stake

The senators wrote that letting people bet on trials and drugs "undermines the scientific process." They also said it "creates perverse incentives for researchers" and "harms trial participants" 1.

Allowing individuals to bet on the success of these trials and drugs undermines the scientific process, creates perverse incentives for researchers, harms trial participants, and could lead to dangerous medical outcomes for untold numbers of Americans
Angela Alsobrooks and Ron Wyden, U.S. senators, D-Maryland and D-Oregon1

They repeated concerns from some health professionals that the markets could change how patients think about joining a trial. They also raised the risk of insider trading by researchers and regulators who may see nonpublic information 1.

What they want from HHS

The senators asked for all internal communication about staff taking part in prediction markets tied to matters HHS oversees. They also asked for communication between the department and the platforms. They want records of contact with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which regulates event contracts, and any internal analyses of the markets' impact 1.

They said HHS, the FDA and the National Institutes of Health must put essential safeguards in place to stop people profiting on drug approvals 1.

The companies' side

Kalshi and Polymarket, the two leading platforms, both offer the contracts. Polymarket's can be found only on its international exchange, which is not regulated in the U.S. 1.

Kalshi launched its drug-related markets in July. It said it allows only late-stage trials and lists a contract only after a trial has finished enrolling. It also said it uses employee verification technology for all traders 1. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said the company is "committed to doing it right" 1.

Kalshi said it picked its first markets with AppliedXL, a company that tracks and predicts trial outcomes 3. One report says the pilot covers roughly a dozen FDA-related contracts, and that trading volume has not been reported 2.

HHS has not publicly responded to the senators' inquiry, according to one report 2. That report also says Public Citizen, a consumer advocacy group, named betting on trial outcomes its "Outrage of the Month" on Nov. 2 2.

Why it matters

That matters because trial results and FDA decisions are known first to a small group of people. The same report notes that this is unlike an election, where many voters shape the outcome in public 2.

Many Americans over 55 take FDA-approved medicines and are asked to join trials. If bets can sway who enrolls, or tempt insiders, the research behind those medicines could suffer. That is the senators' argument, and they have not shown that any insider trading has occurred. The letter asks HHS what it knows.

The letter requests documents and does not itself change any rule. The next thing to watch is whether HHS answers, and whether Kalshi expands or trims its drug contracts 2.

CNBC disclosed that it has a commercial relationship with Kalshi, including customer acquisition and a minority investment 1.

The Record

  1. Kalshi announces it will take bets on clinical trials and regulatory approvals, starting with a small number of markets chosen with AppliedXL 3.
  2. Public Citizen names betting on clinical trial outcomes its "Outrage of the Month" 2.
  3. Alsobrooks and Wyden send a letter asking HHS Secretary Kennedy what it has done to limit risks from the markets 1.
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Sources

  1. CNBC, “Prediction markets tied to clinical trials and drug approvals draw lawmakers' ire” (2026-11-11). cnbc.com/2026/11/11/kalsi-polymarket-prediction-market-senat
  2. Crypto Briefing, “Senators press HHS on prediction markets tied to drug trials” (2026-11-11). cryptobriefing.com/senators-press-hhs-drug-trial-prediction-
  3. STAT, “Kalshi comes for biopharma, with prediction markets for clinical trials and FDA approvals” (2026-07-16). statnews.com/2026/07/16/kalshi-new-offering-prediction-marke

Found an error? Tell the newsroom. Corrections are noted at the top of the story.

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