Sabato's Crystal Ball, a well-known nonpartisan election forecaster run out of the University of Virginia, moved Ohio's race for governor on Thursday from Toss-up to Leans Democratic. The change favors Democrat Amy Acton over Republican Vivek Ramaswamy. 2
The move follows a Ramaswamy campaign ad that shows Acton's mother calling her daughter a liar. The ad appeared amid Acton's accounts of an abusive childhood, NPR reported. 1
What the forecaster said
The Crystal Ball's editors, Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman, were direct about the shift. 2
We're going to go ahead and move the gubernatorial race from Toss-up to Leans Democratic.
They called the ad "an awfully risky and desperate move" for Ramaswamy. They also noted that an average of polls from Silver Bulletin, a polling analysis site, shows Acton ahead by about 4.7 points, 48.7% to 44.0%. 2
The forecasters also added a warning. In 2018, they wrote, Republicans in Ohio's top races did about six points better than the October and November poll average. Polls here have missed before. 2
Republicans split over the ad
Ramaswamy's campaign confirmed it ran the ad, which features Acton's estranged mother, Donna Stearns Arthur. The Crystal Ball described the reaction as widespread condemnation. 2
Vice President JD Vance defended the ad. But Ohio's Republican U.S. Sen. Jon Husted said he would not have run it, and Secretary of State Frank LaRose said he "probably" would not have either. 2
Pollster Frank Luntz called the ad a "Hail Mary," a last-ditch throw when a team is behind. 2
The history behind the ad
Acton, a former Ohio health director, grew up in Youngstown. WVXU, a Cincinnati public radio station, reported in April that she and her mother once lived in a tent on the city's streets because of sexual abuse by her stepfather. 3
Ramaswamy had already drawn criticism in April. He said Ohio needs a governor with a positive vision, rather than one whose only message is "to complain about what someone else did to her." WVXU read that as an attack on Acton for speaking about her abuse. 3
Acton's campaign manager, Phil Stein, answered at the time that it was "shameful" to attack someone for seeking treatment after childhood sexual abuse. 3
What happens next
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, less than two weeks away. The Crystal Ball did not move Ohio's U.S. Senate race, where Democrat Sherrod Brown leads by about 3.7 points in the same polling average. It said it would not do that "just yet." 2
The authors also said Acton has run a cautious campaign and has declined to debate Ramaswamy. They flagged two possible problems for Democrats: weak Black voter turnout in Ohio and a left-wing third-party Senate candidate who could draw votes from Brown. 2
The pattern is worth watching. A forecaster's rating is a judgment, not a vote. But it matters when a campaign's own ad prompts Republican officials to say they would not have run it. 2
The Record
- WVXU reports on Ramaswamy's remarks about a governor who complains about what someone else did to her; Acton's campaign calls the attacks on a survivor shameful 3
- Sabato's Crystal Ball moves Ohio's governor race from Toss-up to Leans Democratic after the Ramaswamy ad featuring Acton's mother 12
- Election Day in Ohio and across the country 2
Sources
- NPR, “Backlash from attack ad upends Ohio gubernatorial race” (2026-10-22). npr.org/2026/10/22/nx-s1-6011216/backlash-from-attack-ad-upe
- Sabato's Crystal Ball, “The Governors: Ohio to Leans Democratic Among Other Changes as Dems Eye Gubernatorial Majority” (2026-10-22). centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/the-governors-ohio-to-lean
- WVXU, “Analysis: Ramaswamy seems to criticize Acton for being a victim of child sex abuse” (2026-04-17). wvxu.org/politics/2026-04-17/ramaswamy-criticize-acton-child
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