Halloween candy now costs 15.3% more than it did a year ago. That is more than four times the overall inflation rate, according to an analysis released Tuesday, Oct. 20, by two economic policy groups, the Groundwork Collaborative and The Century Foundation 1. The report compares average prices in the week ending Oct. 3, 2026, with the same week in 2025 2.
The groups say rising costs don't explain the jump. Cocoa prices have fallen a long way from their 2024 peak, Scripps News reported. Wholesale sugar is down 10% this year and corn syrup is down 4% 2. Even so, the biggest candy makers kept raising prices while their profit margins grew, according to the report 1.
For many older Americans, this is the bowl by the front door on Oct. 31, or the bag of treats bought for grandchildren. A few dollars more per bag adds up for anyone living on a fixed income.
Which candies went up the most
The biggest increase in the report was on Mondelez's sour gummy candy variety pack. It rose from $3.02 in 2025 to $4.20 this fall, a 39% jump 2. Hershey's seasonal peanut butter cups now average $8.23, up 23% 2. Ferrero's chocolate candy packs rose nearly 19% 1.
Common Dreams reported more figures from the analysis. The Hershey variety pack is up nearly 20%, the Mars chocolate variety pack is up more than 13%, and Tootsie's seasonal lollipops are up more than 7% 5.
Trick-or-treaters will have to make due with miniature candy bars this year to accommodate Trump's king-size price hikes.
Tariff refunds, but not lower prices, the groups say
In February, the Supreme Court struck down the tariffs President Trump had imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, an emergency-powers law 6. A judge on the U.S. Court of International Trade then ordered Customs and Border Protection to refund the money. The judge ruled that "all importers of record whose entries were subject to IEEPA were entitled to benefit" 6.
According to the report, Hershey received a $9 million tariff refund and Mondelez received $6 million 2. The groups say Hershey's refund did not lead to lower prices for shoppers 1. Candy makers also benefited from a federal tariff exemption for cocoa that was announced last year 4.
Groundwork said Hershey's profit margin jumped 50% compared with a year earlier, and Mondelez's rose about 30% 1. Scripps News looked at a narrower measure, gross profit margin in the second quarter of 2026. It found Hershey up 30% and Mondelez up 33% from a year earlier 2.
Hershey defended its prices. In a statement to Scripps News, the company said it "has faced significant increases across ingredients, packaging, manufacturing and transportation" and "did not pass the full impact of those higher costs on to consumers." It added: "More than 75% of our U.S. confection portfolio is available for less than $4" 8. Mondelez did not respond to a request for comment 2. Manufacturers point to higher ingredient and packaging costs, and tariffs on aluminum have pushed packaging costs up 4.
Borrowing to pay for Halloween
About 74% of Americans plan to celebrate Halloween this year, according to the National Retail Federation 4. A LendingTree survey found that about one in four Americans expect to take on debt for the holiday. Among parents with children under 18, the figure is 40% 2.
Kyle K. Moore, chief economist at The Century Foundation, said, "Corporations realize that consumers are continuing to pay for those higher prices, they don't drop those prices" 2. He warned that consumers cannot keep paying forever.
At some level, folks are going to hit credit limits, and then you're looking at a real crunch situation
The bigger picture, and the president's own words
Candy is one part of a larger price problem. The Associated Press reported on Oct. 21 that the Consumer Price Index, the government's main inflation measure, rose 3.7% over the past 12 months. That is the last report before Election Day 3.
When Mr. Trump returned to office in January 2025, the index was rising about 3% a year. AP found that inflation kept slowing until April 2025, then started climbing again after Mr. Trump announced a sweeping set of tariffs. This year, the Iran war has also pushed up gasoline prices 3.
The president describes it differently. At a campaign stop in Vandalia, Ohio, on Oct. 3, AP reported, he said this 3:
We have almost no inflation.
Rep. Brendan Boyle of Pennsylvania, the top Democrat on the House Budget Committee, answered the September inflation report on Oct. 14. He said Mr. Trump broke his promise to lower costs, accusing the president of 7:
driving up costs for American families with his disastrous war in Iran and reckless tariff taxes.
The report's authors describe a pattern: when costs rise, prices go up quickly, but when costs fall, or companies get money back, prices don't come down 12. With Republicans in control of the House, the Senate and the White House, voters can weigh that record on Nov. 3.
The Record
- After the Supreme Court struck down Trump's emergency-powers tariffs, a trade court judge orders refunds for the importers who paid them 6
- At a campaign stop in Vandalia, Ohio, Trump says, "We have almost no inflation" 3
- Annual inflation for September comes in at 3.7%; Rep. Brendan Boyle blames the Iran war and tariffs 7
- Groundwork Collaborative and The Century Foundation report Halloween candy prices are up 15.3% from a year earlier 1
- An AP fact check finds inflation has risen since the April 2025 tariff announcement and calls 3.7% the last reading before Election Day 3
Sources
- Groundwork Collaborative, “Halloween Candy Prices Up 15%, Giving American Families a Jump Scare” (2026-10-20). groundworkcollaborative.org/news/halloween-candy-prices-up-1
- Scripps News (News 5 Cleveland), “Halloween candy costs surge as Americans increasingly take on debt to cover purchases” (2026-10-20). news5cleveland.com/life/holidays-and-celebrations/halloween-
- AP (via ClickOnDetroit), “FACT FOCUS: When it comes to Trump's economy, these are the numbers that matter before Nov. 3” (2026-10-21). clickondetroit.com/news/politics/2026/10/21/fact-focus-when-
- Supermarket News, “Halloween candy prices jump 15.3%” (2026-10-21). supermarketnews.com/grocery-trends-data/halloween-candy-pric
- Common Dreams, “'Consumers Are Feeling Spooked': Trump's Failed Economic Policies Send Price of Halloween Candy Soaring” (2026-10-20). commondreams.org/news/trump-halloween-candy-prices
- FashionUnited, “US court orders refunds on IEEPA tariffs” (2026-03-05). fashionunited.com/news/business/us-court-orders-refunds-on-i
- House Budget Committee Democrats, “Boyle Statement on September 2026 CPI Inflation Data” (2026-10-14). democrats-budget.house.gov/news/press-releases/boyle-stateme
- Scripps News (KKTV), “Halloween candy costs surge as Americans increasingly take on debt to cover purchases” (2026-10-20). kktv.com/2026/10/20/halloween-candy-costs-surge-americans-in
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