One week before the Nov. 3 midterm elections, rising prices are hurting Republicans. Voters say they are struggling to afford fuel and groceries, and they blame President Donald Trump's tariffs and the unpopular war with Iran, according to The Associated Press 1.
Filling up a basic Ford F-150 truck now costs about $100, up $30 from a year ago. Over the past 12 months, consumer prices have risen faster than paychecks 1. Inflation was 3% when Trump took office and reached 3.7% last month 1.
What Trump says
Trump says the country has entered an economic golden age. He has also dismissed the word affordability as a con job by Democrats 1. He says interest rates and oil prices will fall once the Iran war, which he started, ends 1. He has claimed inflation is under 2% and under control, which does not match the 3.7% figure 1.
Trump promised in 2024 to bring down costs. "With your vote in this election, I will end inflation," he said 1.
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What voters say
Record-high diesel prices have raised shipping and farming costs. That is causing trouble for Republicans in usually conservative states such as Iowa, Kansas, Ohio and Texas, where Democrats look unusually competitive 1.
Misty Reeder, 48, of Easley, South Carolina, receives disability payments and picked all Democrats on her ballot. She said rent on her home has risen by hundreds of dollars in six years 1. Beti Rosales, who runs a Mexican restaurant in Allentown, Pennsylvania, gave Trump a chance two years ago. "The reality now is that it actually didn't get better," she said 1.
Not everyone agrees. Sandra Capell, 69, voted Republican but wants change. Renee Blood, 57, of Round Rock, Texas, says the economy has "improved quite well" and plans to vote Republican 1.
The Democratic pitch and a Republican warning
Democrats are using the cost of living against vulnerable Republicans. Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff said Trump promised to lower prices on Day One, but now "it costs more than ever in American history to fill up your truck, stock your fridge, visit the doctor or power your home" 1.
Stephen Moore, a former Trump economic adviser, also sees the danger. "Republicans may pay a high price for that," he said of the Iran situation's effect on the economy 1.
What is at stake
Republicans hold a narrow House majority, and Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control. In the Senate, Republicans hold 53 seats, and Democrats need to gain four for a majority 2.
The president's party has lost House seats in 18 of the past 20 midterm elections, going back to 1946 2. The RealClearPolitics average of national polls showed Democrats leading by 8.2 points in early October 2.
That matters because history and polls are only part of the story. Only about 40 to 50 House races are truly competitive, Reuters has estimated, so a national mood may not translate directly into seats 2. Voting ends Tuesday, Nov. 3.
The Record
Sources
- PBS NewsHour (AP), “Trump promised to stop inflation. Now Republicans may pay the price in the midterm elections” (2026-10-26). pbs.org/newshour/politics/trump-promised-to-stop-inflation-n
- The Guardian, “What are the US midterm elections and why do they matter?” (2026-10-26). theguardian.com/us-news/2026/oct/26/what-are-midterm-electio
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