A new CNBC poll finds that the coalition that put President Donald Trump back in the White House in 2024 is "seriously weakened." That coalition joined his base with unusual support from Hispanics and young people. The poll was released Oct. 26, one week before the Nov. 3 midterm elections. 1
Where support has dropped
Net approval is the share who approve minus the share who disapprove. Since the start of Trump's second term, it has fallen from -22 to -38 among Latino voters. Among voters 18 to 34 it has fallen from -28 to -53, and among Black respondents from -55 to -67. 1
Among all registered voters, net approval has gone from -7 to -19. 1 Self-described Trump voters have moved from a net +85 in 2025 to +65. In the South, his net approval has turned negative, from +2 to -20. 1
The economy is the weak spot
Trump's economic approval is 34%, and 65% disapprove, according to a report on the poll. In July it was 38% approve and 60% disapprove. 2 CNBC says 65% is the highest economic disapproval for any president it has measured back to Barack Obama. It is one point higher than Joe Biden's worst showing. 1
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CNBC ties the slide to the start of the Iran war. It also points to rising disapproval of Trump's handling of inflation, and to headlines about Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers shooting Americans. 1 About eight in 10 voters rate the economy fair or poor. 2
What voters say about Congress
The survey shows a 7-point preference for Democratic control of Congress, a 3-point gain since July. 1 Another report on the poll puts it at 52% for Democrats and 45% for Republicans. 2
Asked about their biggest worry if Republicans control Congress, 44% said allowing Trump to operate beyond his constitutional power. If Democrats control it, 28% named passing policies of Democratic Socialists. Voters in both cases worry Congress won't do enough to bring down prices. 1
Not all bad news for Republicans
Republicans in the survey still give Trump an 82% approval rating, and self-described MAGA supporters give him 90%. Republican preference for a GOP-run Congress rose from 85% in July to 87% in October. 1
Blue-collar workers show the same pattern. Their economic approval of Trump is down 22 points to -15, but their overall approval is still +6. They prefer a Republican Congress by 21 points, down from 33 in July. 1
Enthusiasm may matter most. Interest in the election is 10 points lower among Republicans than among Democrats. CNBC notes that in tight races, the party that turns out its voters better has the advantage. 1
CNBC says Trump's travel to red states in recent days suggests concern about base enthusiasm. It also says the visits could fire up that base and limit Democratic gains. 1
The survey polled 1,000 registered voters nationwide from Oct. 14 to 18. Democratic pollster Hart Research Associates and Republican pollster Public Opinion Strategies co-led it. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. 12
That matters because the groups slipping away from Trump are the same ones that helped him sweep the battleground states in 2024. CNBC's conclusion is that extra votes from that coalition would be a reach for Republican congressional candidates in 2026. 1
The Record
- Trump's economic approval was already underwater in CNBC's April 2025 survey, after the tariff rollout and market turmoil. 1
- CNBC/Hart/Public Opinion Strategies poll of 1,000 registered voters finishes fieldwork; it began Oct. 14. 1
- CNBC reports Trump's net approval among Latino voters fell from -22 to -38 since the start of his term. 1
Sources
- CNBC, “The arc of Trump: How the president lost the coalition that put him in the White House” (2026-10-26). cnbc.com/2026/10/26/trump-approval-midterms-cnbc-survey.html
- Yahoo News (NJ.com), “Trump hits all-time low approval on No. 1 issue ahead of midterms: New poll” (2026-10-23). yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/trump-hits-time-low-approva
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