Republicans redrew dozens of congressional districts to be friendlier to conservatives, hoping to avoid losses in the midterms. Many of those seats are now competitive battlegrounds, Newsweek reported Monday 1. The election is Tuesday, Nov. 3.
Districts in Alabama, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas became much more conservative in mid-decade redistricting. Many of those seats now backed President Donald Trump by double digits under the new lines 1. The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan race rater, now calls many of them competitive anyway 1.
Where the new maps are close
In North Carolina, Republicans tried to put Democratic Rep. Don Davis in a seat Trump won by nearly 12 points, up from roughly three on the old map. Cook still rates it a toss-up 1. In Ohio's 9th District, Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur faces Republican Derek Merrin in a toss-up. The district moved from Trump +7 to more than Trump +10 1.
In Florida, Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor's Tampa-area seat now favors Trump by 10 points, yet it is a toss-up. The 22nd District, where Democrat Pia Dandiya faces Republican Casey Askar, is also a toss-up 1. Cook gives Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz an edge in the 25th District, which Trump would have won by nine points under the new lines 1.
From Channel GOPPatel agrees he cleaned house, then blames retirementsAdam Schiff · 160 plays · captioned, with the source named
In Alabama, Democratic Rep. Shomari Figures was moved into a district Trump won by double digits. Cook rates that race Lean Republican, so it is still seen as competitive 1. In Texas, the 35th District, which Trump carried by about 10 points, is a toss-up 1.
Some Republican incumbents are also under pressure. Rep. Mike Turner of Ohio is in a Lean Republican race against Democrat Kristina Knickerbocker. Rep. Anna Paulina Luna of Florida, rated Lean Republican, faces Democrat Leela Gray 1.
The national mood
Trump's approval rating has fallen to record lows in recent weeks, and Democrats lead the generic ballot by 8.3 points in RealClearPolitics' polling average. The generic ballot asks voters which party they want in Congress 1. A CBS News/YouGov poll from Oct. 21-23 put Democrats ahead 53% to 45%. A New York Times/Siena poll of likely voters from Oct. 12-19 had them ahead 52% to 41% 1.
House Republicans thought they could ruin the economy, raise the cost of everything, and then rig the maps to save their seats. They’re going to get crushed in November and they have only themselves to blame.
Newsweek said it also asked the National Republican Congressional Committee for comment 1. Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, a California Republican, told Bloomberg News last week that he believes Democrats are likely to retake the House 1.
What the maps still did
The new maps are not a failure for Republicans. Some Democratic-held seats around Dallas, Memphis and Louisiana became more conservative and are not seen as competitive. Republicans are favored to pick up at least a few seats that way 1.
In July, Cook found the number of competitive seats had fallen from 87 to 77 under new maps in 10 states. Democrats would need 57 of those 77 to win the House 2. Cook expected Republicans to gain eight seats from redistricting and Democrats to net two 2.
That matters because Republicans have also spent money defending seats they hoped to win easily. That money could otherwise have gone to more traditional battlegrounds 1. Competitive does not mean lost: Republicans could still win these races 1.
The Record
- Cook found competitive House seats fell from 87 to 77 under new maps in 10 states; Democrats need 57 of them 2.
- A CBS News/YouGov poll finished surveying, with Democrats ahead 53% to 45% on the generic ballot 1.
- Newsweek reported that many GOP-redrawn seats are competitive, with Democrats up 8.3 points in RealClearPolitics' average 1.
Sources
- Newsweek, “Republicans on Defense in Districts GOP Redrew to Win Midterm: Full List” (2026-10-26). newsweek.com/republicans-defense-districts-midterms-full-lis
- Colorado Politics, “Democrats must win 57 out of 77 competitive House seats to take majority: Cook Political Report” (2026-07-29). coloradopolitics.com/2026/07/29/democrats-must-win-57-out-of
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