With 11 days left before the Nov. 3 midterm election, the fight for the Senate is coming down to a few close races. Two of them, in Texas and Maine, are polling at or near ties. Republicans now hold a 53-47 Senate majority 1.
Texas: a nominee the party leader did not back
In Texas, Republican Ken Paxton, the state attorney general, beat Sen. John Cornyn in the party's runoff after President Trump endorsed him. Senate Majority Leader John Thune had backed Cornyn 1.
AP reported in June that Paxton has faced an indictment, an impeachment and allegations of marital infidelity. Senate Republicans feared he would be a weaker candidate against Democrat James Talarico 1. An indictment is a charge, not a conviction.
A Fox News poll taken Sept. 24-28 found Talarico ahead of Paxton 51% to 49% among likely voters. That is inside the 3-point margin of error 3. Talarico was rated favorably by 52% and unfavorably by 44%. Paxton was at 40% favorable and 58% unfavorable 3.
From Channel GOPTalarico: Elon Musk is trying to buy Texas Senate seatJames Talarico · 131 plays · captioned, with the source named
Ken Paxton is absolutely necessary as far as keeping that majority.
Sen. Roger Marshall, a Kansas Republican, made that case when Paxton visited Washington in June 1. Paxton's weak ratings make that argument harder to sustain now.
Maine: a tie for Susan Collins
In Maine, Republican Sen. Susan Collins is seeking a sixth term against Democrat Troy Jackson. A Fox News poll taken Oct. 16-20 found them tied at 49% each. Its margin of error is 2.5 points among likely voters 2.
In that poll, 53% of Maine voters said they were concerned that Collins votes with Trump too much. Another 46% said they were concerned that Jackson is too liberal 2. Fifty-three percent preferred a Democratic-led Senate and 45% preferred Republican control 2.
A CBS News/YouGov poll taken Sept. 23 to Oct. 1 also found a tie. It said four in 10 Democrats and most independents wish someone else were the Democratic nominee 4. Democrats have their own candidate-quality worries.
We're going to beat Susan Collins and take back the Senate
Schumer, the Senate Democratic leader, said that in June when reporters asked about the Democratic candidate in Maine at the time 1. Jackson is now the nominee 4.
What happens next
Voters decide Nov. 3. The CBS poll found that 10% of Maine voters said they could still change their minds 4. The Texas survey is three weeks old, so the race may have moved.
That matters because Trump's approval is low in both states. It was 37% in Maine and 44% in Texas 23. Whether voters see these races as a vote on Trump or on the candidates may settle who controls the Senate.
The Record
- Paxton and a Maine Democratic candidate visited Washington to shore up support. Thune had backed Paxton's primary opponent, Cornyn 1.
- A Fox News poll in Texas ended with Talarico at 51% and Paxton at 49% among likely voters 3.
- A Fox News poll in Maine ended with Collins and Jackson tied at 49% each 2.
Sources
- PBS NewsHour (AP), “Amid controversial Senate campaigns, Paxton and Platner visit Washington to shore up support” (2026-06-02). pbs.org/newshour/politics/amid-controversial-senate-campaign
- Fox News, “Fox News Poll: Maine Senate race” (2026-10-22). foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-nail-biter-maine-senate-r
- Fox News, “Fox News Poll: Lone Star Senate showdown between Talarico and Paxton” (2026-10-01). foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-its-lone-star-senate-show
- CBS News, “CBS News poll finds voters split on state v. national focus in tied Maine Senate race” (2026-10-02). cbsnews.com/news/maine-senate-poll-2026-10-02/
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