Forecaster DDHQ flips Texas, Alaska and Maine Senate races to Democrats on eve of vote

Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), an election forecasting outlet, is now projecting that the Senate races in Texas, Alaska and Maine will flip to Democrats on Tuesday, enough to put the party in a strong position to win back the Senate ¹.

DDHQ gives Democrats James Talarico in Texas and Mary Peltola in Alaska each a 61 percent chance of winning, and Maine Democrat Troy Jackson a 63 percent chance of beating Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) ¹. Overall, DDHQ puts Democrats at a 64 percent probability of winning the Senate and Republicans at 36 percent, with a likely 52-48 Democratic edge ¹.

On tapeThe Hill · Oct 30

▶4:12

The forecast comes with a caution: many Senate contests are still polling within the margin of error, meaning they are statistically tied ¹. The Hill reports that a year ago a serious Democratic chance at the Senate seemed unthinkable, given the number of traditionally red states Republicans were defending ¹.

The copy attributes the shift to President Trump's rapidly declining approval ratings and to voters who still say the cost of living is too high ¹. It also cites the war in Iran and the tariff war with Canada, which increased prices for goods like gas and fertilizer, particularly affecting agricultural states ¹.

From Channel GOPTalarico: Elon Musk is trying to buy Texas Senate seatJames Talarico · 142 plays · captioned, with the source named

Polls show a tight field

Surveys from The New York Times and Siena University released over the weekend showed Democrats edging out Republicans in seven competitive Senate races, according to the copy ¹. Only Talarico and Michigan Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed were polling outside the full margin of error spread ¹. Many on both sides still expect tighter matchups ¹.

In Texas, the Senate campaign is on track to be part of a billion-dollar midterm cycle, with more than half spent on the Senate race, which CBS News says could be the most expensive non-presidential race in American history ². Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, Trump's hand-picked candidate, is facing state Rep. James Talarico, a Presbyterian seminarian and former middle-school teacher, in a race polls show locked tight ².

On tapeCBS News · Oct 30

▶4:01

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), campaigning for Paxton, said: "Look, this race is neck-and neck; it is a dead heat" ². He added: "These races are all about turnout. The left is going to show up. They hate Donald Trump. They're going to show up. The question is, does everybody else? Do regular people come out and vote? If regular people come out and vote, we'll win Texas and have a good election" ².

Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-Texas) told CBS that economic concerns are paramount even when culture fights get the headlines: "Prices are so high, you know, people are really feeling it economically" ².

A late Democratic distraction

Democrats got unwelcome news on Sunday when Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) reversed her endorsement of El-Sayed and backed GOP nominee Mike Rogers instead ¹. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), who backed Stevens in the Michigan Senate primary, sharply criticized the move ¹.

Some Democrats and experts believe Stevens's last-minute move is unlikely to change the overall trajectory of the race, but they see it as an unwelcome distraction that could needlessly cost votes on Tuesday ¹.

That matters because with one day left, the forecast is a snapshot, not a result. The copy itself notes many races are statistically tied, and the Texas contest is described as a dead heat ¹². Voters will settle it Tuesday.

The Record

1. Oct 23, 2026Ken Paxton rallies in Texas, asking supporters about protecting Texas and stopping Sharia law ²
2. Oct 24, 2026James Talarico tells a San Antonio crowd the campaign must execute and leave it all on the field ²
3. Nov 1, 2026Rep. Haley Stevens reverses her endorsement of Abdul El-Sayed and backs Republican Mike Rogers ¹
4. Nov 2, 2026Decision Desk HQ forecasts Texas, Alaska and Maine Senate seats flipping to Democrats ¹

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<h2>Forecaster DDHQ flips Texas, Alaska and Maine Senate races to Democrats on eve of vote</h2> <p><em>By The GOP Files Campaign Desk. This article first appeared on <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/story/forecaster-ddhq-flips-texas-alaska-and-maine-senate-races-to-democrats-on-eve-of">The GOP Files</a> on Monday, November 2, 2026.</em></p> <p>Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), an election forecasting outlet, is now projecting that the Senate races in Texas, Alaska and Maine will flip to Democrats on Tuesday, enough to put the party in a strong position to win back the Senate .</p> <p>DDHQ gives Democrats James Talarico in Texas and Mary Peltola in Alaska each a 61 percent chance of winning, and Maine Democrat Troy Jackson a 63 percent chance of beating Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) . Overall, DDHQ puts Democrats at a 64 percent probability of winning the Senate and Republicans at 36 percent, with a likely 52-48 Democratic edge .</p> <p>The forecast comes with a caution: many Senate contests are still polling within the margin of error, meaning they are statistically tied . The Hill reports that a year ago a serious Democratic chance at the Senate seemed unthinkable, given the number of traditionally red states Republicans were defending .</p> <p>The copy attributes the shift to President Trump&#39;s rapidly declining approval ratings and to voters who still say the cost of living is too high . It also cites the war in Iran and the tariff war with Canada, which increased prices for goods like gas and fertilizer, particularly affecting agricultural states .</p> <h2>Polls show a tight field</h2> <p>Surveys from The New York Times and Siena University released over the weekend showed Democrats edging out Republicans in seven competitive Senate races, according to the copy . Only Talarico and Michigan Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed were polling outside the full margin of error spread . Many on both sides still expect tighter matchups .</p> <p>In Texas, the Senate campaign is on track to be part of a billion-dollar midterm cycle, with more than half spent on the Senate race, which CBS News says could be the most expensive non-presidential race in American history . Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, Trump&#39;s hand-picked candidate, is facing state Rep. James Talarico, a Presbyterian seminarian and former middle-school teacher, in a race polls show locked tight .</p> <p>Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), campaigning for Paxton, said: &quot;Look, this race is neck-and neck; it is a dead heat&quot; . He added: &quot;These races are all about turnout. The left is going to show up. They hate Donald Trump. They&#39;re going to show up. The question is, does everybody else? Do regular people come out and vote? If regular people come out and vote, we&#39;ll win Texas and have a good election&quot; .</p> <p>Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-Texas) told CBS that economic concerns are paramount even when culture fights get the headlines: &quot;Prices are so high, you know, people are really feeling it economically&quot; .</p> <h2>A late Democratic distraction</h2> <p>Democrats got unwelcome news on Sunday when Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) reversed her endorsement of El-Sayed and backed GOP nominee Mike Rogers instead . Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), who backed Stevens in the Michigan Senate primary, sharply criticized the move .</p> <p>Some Democrats and experts believe Stevens&#39;s last-minute move is unlikely to change the overall trajectory of the race, but they see it as an unwelcome distraction that could needlessly cost votes on Tuesday .</p> <p>That matters because with one day left, the forecast is a snapshot, not a result. The copy itself notes many races are statistically tied, and the Texas contest is described as a dead heat . Voters will settle it Tuesday.</p> <p><em>Read the original, with every source linked, at <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/story/forecaster-ddhq-flips-texas-alaska-and-maine-senate-races-to-democrats-on-eve-of">thegopfiles.com</a>. Republished under The GOP Files' <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/republish">free republishing terms</a>.</em></p> <img src="https://thegopfiles.com/api/rp/forecaster-ddhq-flips-texas-alaska-and-maine-senate-races-to-democrats-on-eve-of.gif" alt="" width="1" height="1" style="border:0;width:1px;height:1px">

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Sources

1. The Hill, “Texas, Alaska, Maine Senate races flip blue on DDHQ map” (2026-11-02). thehill.com/homenews/6188072-ddhq-senate-forecast-texas-alas
2. CBS News, “The issue that could tip the scales in the Texas Senate race” (2026-11-01). cbsnews.com/news/texas-senate-race-james-talarico-ken-paxton

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