Trump is underwater in 39 states and every battleground a week before the midterms

One week before the midterm elections, President Donald Trump is underwater in 39 states and in every major battleground, according to new polling. "Underwater" means more voters disapprove of his job performance than approve ¹.

The numbers come from a rolling tracker by the polling firm Civiqs. It is based on 138,839 responses from registered voters collected between January 20, 2025, and October 26, 2026 ¹². Nationally, 34 percent approve and 60 percent disapprove, a net rating of minus 26 ¹².

On tapeCNN · Oct 19

▶1:37

Where the president stands in key states

Trump's net rating is lower in every state than it was on January 20, 2025 ¹. Since then it has fallen 27 points in Ohio, 23 points in Florida and Nevada, and 17 points in North Carolina ¹.

In the six Senate races Newsweek highlighted, his net rating is minus 29 in Maine, minus 25 in Michigan, minus 20 in Iowa, minus 19 in Ohio and Texas, and minus 13 in Alaska ¹. The Cook Political Report rates all six races as tossups ¹. Sabato's Crystal Ball rates Alaska and Michigan as Lean Democratic and the other four as tossups ¹.

From Channel GOPEl-Sayed's Detroit record: Marathon, 16,000 pairs of glassesAbdul El-Sayed · 123 plays · captioned, with the source named

Civiqs' state figures also show Trump at 34 percent approval and 58 percent disapproval in Georgia, and 36 percent and 57 percent in Pennsylvania ². In Wisconsin it is 35 percent and 58 percent ².

Older voters are less negative, but still negative

Voters aged 50 to 64 split 43 percent approve to 51 percent disapprove ¹. Those 65 and older split 43 percent to 52 percent ¹. Younger voters are far more negative: among those 18 to 34, 21 percent approve and 71 percent disapprove ¹.

On tapeWUSA9 · Oct 25

▶1:35

Independents disapprove 66 percent to 26 percent. Republicans approve 78 percent to 11 percent ¹. Women disapprove 66 percent to 29 percent, and men 54 percent to 39 percent ¹.

Trump still has positive ratings in some Republican states. Arkansas is at plus 9 and West Virginia at plus 8, and Montana is tied at 46 percent to 46 percent ¹. Even there, his net approval has dropped 21 points in Arkansas, 27 in West Virginia and 32 in Wyoming since January 2025 ¹.

The races and the White House response

Newsweek lists Democratic candidates ahead in several of those contests. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton by 1.5 points in the RealClearPolling average ¹. In Maine, Democrat Troy Jackson leads Republican Sen. Susan Collins by 1.4 points ¹. In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads former Rep. Mike Rogers by 1.9 points ¹.

In Ohio, Democrat Sherrod Brown leads Republican Sen. Jon Husted by 3.3 points ¹. In Alaska, Democrat Mary Peltola leads Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan by 0.8 points ¹. In Iowa, Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson leads Democrat Josh Turek by 0.6 points in that same average ¹.

Trump has campaigned in Iowa, Florida, Georgia and Michigan in the past week. He has urged supporters to "pretend I’m on the ballot" ¹. White House spokesman Davis Ingle called Trump the party's "unequivocal leader, best messenger, and unmatched motivator" ¹.

pretend I’m on the ballot

That matters because Republicans are asking voters to treat the midterms as a vote on Trump. Approval ratings do not predict individual races, and these figures do not measure support for specific candidates ¹. But they describe the conditions Republicans face in the final week, and the president has tied his name to their campaigns.

Election Day is Tuesday, November 3 ¹.

The Record

1. Jan 20, 2025Civiqs begins tracking Trump's second-term approval; his net rating has since fallen in every state ¹².
2. Oct 26, 2026Latest Civiqs data show 34% approve and 60% disapprove nationally ¹².
3. Nov 3, 2026Midterm Election Day, with control of Congress at stake ¹.

Sources

1. Newsweek, “Map Shows Donald Trump Approval Rating in Every State 1 Week Until Midterms” (2026-10-27). newsweek.com/map-donald-trump-approval-rating-state-week-mid
2. Civiqs, “Donald Trump job approval (second term) tracker, registered voters” (2026-10-26). civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump_2025

Found an error? Tell the newsroom. Corrections are noted at the top of the story.