Final PBS/NPR/Marist poll: Democrats lead by 8 among likely voters a week out

Democrats lead Republicans by 8 points among likely voters in the final PBS News/NPR/Marist poll before the Nov. 3 midterm election, with independents breaking for Democrats by 13 points ¹. The survey of 1,289 registered voters was conducted Oct. 19-20, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points for registered voters and 3.8 points for likely voters ².

Enthusiasm favors Democrats: 71% of Democratic likely voters say they are very enthusiastic about voting, compared with 61% of Republicans and 48% of independents ¹. More than 30 million ballots have already been cast nationwide, including more than 15.1 million by mail and 15.5 million in person, according to the University of Florida Election Lab ¹. About 1 in 5 likely voters in the poll say they have already voted, and that group favors Democrats 68% to 31% ¹.

Republicans are counting on Election Day. Half of Republican likely voters plan to vote in person on Nov. 3, compared with 31% of Democrats ¹.

Trump is the issue, in both directions

Forty percent of likely voters approve of the job President Donald Trump is doing, while 59% disapprove, including 53% who strongly disapprove ¹. Among registered voters, 38% approve and 61% disapprove, the highest disapproval Marist has recorded in either of his terms, though the shift is within the margin of error ¹². Forty-four percent of likely voters say their congressional vote is mostly a vote against Trump, more than double the 21% who say it is a vote for him ¹.

From Channel GOPTrump on the Alaska ballot and the DOJ suitDonald Trump · 214 plays · captioned, with the source named

Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, said the president's decision to put himself at the center of the campaign is unusual given those numbers.

If your approval rating is upside down, the president doesn't usually say, 'I'm on the ballot.'

The cost of living (34%) and preserving democracy (33%) are the top issues for likely voters; immigration trails at 12% ¹. A third of respondents said they experienced financial hardship in the past year and 4 in 10 said their personal finances have gotten worse ².

Both parties see limits

Democratic strategist Joel Payne said the House looks close to decided but the Senate is tighter. Republican strategist Melik Abdul said the House is out of reach for his party but predicted Republicans keep the Senate, possibly by a seat or two ¹.

I don't think it will be the blue wave that people are suspecting.

The poll carries warnings for Democrats too. Just 42% of likely voters under 45, 53% of non-white voters and 56% of white women with college degrees say they are very enthusiastic about voting, while 68% of MAGA voters and 66% of white women without degrees say the same ². Fifty-five percent of likely voters said it is more important to vote for candidates with new ideas who will bring about change ².

That matters because the poll is a snapshot, not a result. In October 2018, Democrats held a 9-point edge among likely voters before picking up 40 House seats ¹. This year, Marist applied a likely-voter screen for the first time this cycle, and likely voters were slightly less likely than registered voters to disapprove of Trump, within the margin of error ². The pattern is that Democratic gains may be real but smaller than the registered-voter numbers suggest.

The Record

1. Oct 19, 2026The PBS News/NPR/Marist poll of 1,289 registered voters is conducted Oct. 19-20 ².
2. Oct 27, 2026The poll finds Democrats leading by 8 points among likely voters a week before the election ¹.
3. Nov 3, 2026The midterm election is Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026 ¹.

Sources

1. PBS NewsHour, “Poll: Likely voters favor Democrats as Trump disapproval drives early turnout” (2026-10-27). pbs.org/newshour/politics/poll-likely-voters-favor-democrats
2. NPR, “Democrats still poised to make gains, but poll shows warning signs for just how many” (2026-10-27). npr.org/2026/10/27/nx-s1-6017479/2026-midterms-npr-poll-demo

Found an error? Tell the newsroom. Corrections are noted at the top of the story.