Early voting is running well ahead of 2022 in many states that could decide control of the Senate. An Associated Press (AP) analysis found more than 13 million mail-in and early in-person ballots cast nationally as of Tuesday. At the same point in 2022, the count was 9 million 1.
By Friday morning, nearly 21 million Americans had voted, according to the University of Florida's Election Lab 2. The two counts come from different dates and trackers, so they should not be compared directly. Part of the increase also reflects states that expanded early voting or released more data since 2022 1.
Where turnout is up
Early voting in Texas is up 74 percent from the same point in 2022. Kansas has more than doubled its total. Maine, North Carolina and Ohio are each up more than 30 percent 1.
Democrats are chasing Republican-held Senate seats in all five states. AP found Republicans make up a smaller share of advance voters in most of them than four years ago 1.
From Channel GOPTalarico: Elon Musk is trying to buy Texas Senate seatJames Talarico · 134 plays · captioned, with the source named
Texas has close to 1 million ballots in, up from about 550,000 at this point in 2022. Early in-person voting there opened only on Monday, and the state does not report ballots by party. State Rep. James Talarico, a Democrat, faces Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in the Senate race 1.
North Carolina offers a partisan snapshot. Through five days of early voting, Democrats cast nearly 45 percent of ballots, unaffiliated voters about 34 percent and Republicans nearly 21 percent 1.
What voters want next
A new AP-NORC poll found about 80 percent of respondents want lower prices among the next Congress' top priorities. Roughly 7 in 10 want lawmakers focused on ending the war with Iran. About 4 in 10 named investigating the Trump administration, and about 2 in 10 named supporting the president's agenda 1.
I think we're going to see a record turnout.
Why caution is warranted
Not every battleground is surging. Michigan and Georgia, where Democrats are defending Senate seats, are high but similar to 2022. Iowa is down about 6 percent 1.
Charles Stewart, an MIT political scientist, told NPR that many early voters would have voted on Election Day anyway. He said the rise also reflects the money campaigns are spending to get supporters out early 2.
Republicans also tend to vote heavier on Election Day. In the ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll, likely voters who vote early or already have favored Democrats by 26 points. Those planning to vote in person on Election Day backed Republicans by 11 points 1.
It's more that Republican voters might not be as enthusiastic to vote this year as they have been in the past.
Democratic strategist Doug Gordon saw encouraging signs but warned that "Democrats can't get complacent" 1.
What the forecasts say
As of Wednesday, Decision Desk HQ's model gave Democrats a 78 percent chance of winning the House and a 57 percent chance of taking the Senate 1.
The Senate math is harder. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority, and Democrats must flip four seats outright because Vice President JD Vance would break a 50-50 tie 1. Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3.
The Record
Sources
- Newsweek, “Early Voting Surges in Battlegrounds as Costs Tops List of Voter Concerns” (2026-10-23). newsweek.com/early-voting-surges-in-battlegrounds-as-costs-t
- NPR, “What's behind the early voting surge? It's more than voter enthusiasm, expert says” (2026-10-23). npr.org/2026/10/23/nx-s1-6012308/midterm-elections-early-vot
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