Election Day storms forecast for Texas, Kansas and Iowa, where key races are close

Forecasters say a storm system is likely to sweep across the central United States on Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 3. The roughest weather is expected in states with some of the closest races, including Texas, Kansas and Iowa ¹.

Bob Oravec, a lead forecaster at the National Weather Service's Weather Prediction Center, said the middle of the country is likely to be the most active area. He said turnout could depend on how committed voters are.

Depending on how committed people are going to be to turning out for whatever candidate they’re going to vote for, the weather could have an impact.

Texas: storms in a Senate battleground

Forecast models show thunderstorms hitting north central Texas on Tuesday morning. That area is a critical battleground in the Senate race between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton ¹.

Oravec said the usual severe-weather threats are possible: high winds, large hail and maybe even tornadoes ¹. CNN's forecast says the best chance of rain is in the eastern half of Texas, especially east of Interstate 35 ². AccuWeather lists Houston, Dallas and Oklahoma City in its long-range severe weather outlook ³.

From Channel GOPTalarico: Elon Musk is trying to buy Texas Senate seatJames Talarico · 139 plays · captioned, with the source named

Kansas and Iowa: wind and a lot of rain

Kansas has become a surprise Senate battleground. Polls show Republican Sen. Roger Marshall and Democrat Adam Hamilton neck and neck ¹.

Clint Alexander, a National Weather Service forecaster in Goodland, Kansas, said sustained winds of 20 to 30 miles an hour are possible, with gusts over 40 and maybe over 50. He said the winds could affect travel on Interstate 70, the state's main east-west road, though the forecast is still somewhat uncertain ¹.

Iowa has close races for governor and U.S. Senate, and Tuesday could be very wet there. Justin Schultz, lead forecaster for the National Weather Service in Davenport, said "It’ll be pretty dreary." No flooding is predicted ¹.

Schultz said the amount of moisture in the air could reach an all-time high. That would mean a lot of rain and wet conditions through the day ¹.

It could actually be near record moisture for this time of the year

What could still change

The forecast is not final. Oravec said forecasters are confident the storm will move west to east, but the timing of individual lines of thunderstorms will likely change over the next few days ¹.

CNN says confidence is growing for widespread rain, though exactly who gets the most disruptive soaking is still in question. It names Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Texas and possibly Ohio as areas that could see wet conditions ². Schultz expects Iowa's forecast to firm up over the weekend ¹.

AccuWeather says rain is likely Tuesday in Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Michigan. That includes the Chicago, Detroit and Kansas City, Missouri, areas. It expects dry weather in Los Angeles, Seattle and San Francisco ³.

Why it matters

CNN says more than 39 million people have already voted early. So the storm would mainly affect those who have not yet voted ². CNN also cites academic studies finding that rain tends to lower turnout. It does not estimate how big the effect could be this year ².

That matters because the races in Texas, Kansas and Iowa are close. In a tight contest, even a small drop in turnout in one area could change who wins. Voters who plan to cast ballots on Tuesday may want a backup plan if the weather turns bad.

The Record

1. Oct 29, 2026Forecasters say a storm system is expected to hit the central U.S. on Election Day, with Texas, Kansas and Iowa among the states most affected ¹.
2. Nov 3, 2026Election Day: thunderstorms are forecast from Texas to Missouri, with heavy rain in parts of Iowa and strong winds in Kansas ¹.

Sources

1. NBC News, “Stormy weather could hit key states on Election Day, forecasters predict” (2026-10-29). nbcnews.com/weather/storms/election-day-weather-forecast-sto
2. CNN (via KRDO), “Election Day storm could impact voter turnout in key midterm races in the central US” (2026-10-29). krdo.com/cnn-weather-environment/2026/10/29/election-day-sto
3. AccuWeather (via Yahoo), “Election Day weather: Rain, severe storms could complicate trips to polls across central US” (2026-10-29). yahoo.com/news/weather-news/articles/election-day-weather-ra

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