Early voting tops 52.7 million, a midterm record, as Senate control hangs on tight races

Early voting reached a national midterm record this year, with 52.7 million ballots cast before Election Day, according to Newsweek ¹. That surpasses the previous high of 45.9 million set in 2022 ¹.

The increases are largest in states hosting closely watched Senate contests. North Carolina recorded more than 2.8 million early ballots, compared with roughly 2.15 million at the same point four years ago, a rise of about 31 percent. Michigan has recorded more than 2.3 million early votes as of Monday ¹.

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Georgia passed 2.8 million in-person early votes, topping its previous midterm record of about 2.1 million in 2018. Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Nebraska, Ohio and Texas also saw early voting rise from 2022, though final numbers for this year are not yet in ¹.

Why the Senate map matters

Democrats need a four-seat gain to take control of the Senate, which would give them power to limit President Donald Trump's ambitions, reject his judicial nominations and investigate his administration, the BBC reports ². The Cook Political Report rates seven Senate races as toss-ups ².

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Among them: Alaska, where Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan faces former Rep. Mary Peltola; Maine, where Republican Sen. Susan Collins seeks a sixth term against Democrat Troy Jackson; Michigan, where Democrat Abdul El-Sayed faces Republican former congressman Mike Rogers; Iowa, where Republican Ashley Hinson faces Democrat Josh Turek; and Kansas, where Republican Sen. Roger Marshall is trying to hold a seat Democrats last won in 1932 ².

In Texas, Democrat James Talarico is trying to end a decades-long Democratic drought against Republican Ken Paxton in what the BBC calls the most expensive Senate race ever ².

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What the numbers do and do not show

Registered Democrats lead among early voters in the available data, though only slightly more than half of states report registration breakdowns, limiting how far the figures can be treated as representative of nationwide trends ¹. The Election Lab cautions that more early voters does not necessarily mean more votes will be cast overall ¹.

Charles Stewart III, director of the MIT Election Data and Science Lab, told Newsweek the surge was likely a combination of two related things: "The greater interest in the election among Democrats (or voters who plan to vote for Democrats) and the resources campaigns have to turn out supporters."

In any event, it’s probably all part of the same story, which is that this is likely to be a good Democratic year, and it’s starting a little earlier than it has in previous elections.

Michael McDonald, the University of Florida political science professor who runs the Election Lab, told Time that sustained patterns across days and states build confidence. "Once you start seeing consistency across multiple days of voting and across multiple states, it starts giving us more confidence that whatever we're seeing in terms of relative engagement, that's likely going to carry through to election day," he said ¹.

Trump has often cast doubt on early voting, particularly by mail, and has urged voters to head to the polls in person on Election Day ¹.

What happens next

Most early voting wrapped up Monday, with mail ballots still arriving at elections offices. Some states allow those ballots to be counted for a few days after polls close, so the picture could shift as states publish more current information ¹.

That matters because the Senate is the chamber that confirms judges and can investigate an administration. With seven races rated toss-ups and Democrats needing four seats, the early-vote surge is the first hard measure of engagement in a midterm that will decide whether Republicans keep unified control of Congress and the White House ¹².

The Record

1. Nov 8, 2022The previous midterm early-voting high was 45.9 million ballots, set in 2022 ¹.
2. Nov 2, 2026Early voting hit a national midterm record of 52.7 million ballots before Election Day ¹.
3. Nov 2, 2026North Carolina recorded more than 2.8 million early ballots, up about 31 percent from roughly 2.15 million in 2022 ¹.
4. Nov 3, 2026Election Day, with 35 Senate races on the ballot and seven Senate races rated toss-ups ².

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<h2>Early voting tops 52.7 million, a midterm record, as Senate control hangs on tight races</h2> <p><em>By The GOP Files Campaign Desk. This article first appeared on <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/story/early-voting-tops-52-7-million-a-midterm-record-as-senate-control-hangs-on-tight">The GOP Files</a> on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.</em></p> <p>Early voting reached a national midterm record this year, with 52.7 million ballots cast before Election Day, according to Newsweek . That surpasses the previous high of 45.9 million set in 2022 .</p> <p>The increases are largest in states hosting closely watched Senate contests. North Carolina recorded more than 2.8 million early ballots, compared with roughly 2.15 million at the same point four years ago, a rise of about 31 percent. Michigan has recorded more than 2.3 million early votes as of Monday .</p> <p>Georgia passed 2.8 million in-person early votes, topping its previous midterm record of about 2.1 million in 2018. Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Nebraska, Ohio and Texas also saw early voting rise from 2022, though final numbers for this year are not yet in .</p> <h2>Why the Senate map matters</h2> <p>Democrats need a four-seat gain to take control of the Senate, which would give them power to limit President Donald Trump&#39;s ambitions, reject his judicial nominations and investigate his administration, the BBC reports . The Cook Political Report rates seven Senate races as toss-ups .</p> <p>Among them: Alaska, where Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan faces former Rep. Mary Peltola; Maine, where Republican Sen. Susan Collins seeks a sixth term against Democrat Troy Jackson; Michigan, where Democrat Abdul El-Sayed faces Republican former congressman Mike Rogers; Iowa, where Republican Ashley Hinson faces Democrat Josh Turek; and Kansas, where Republican Sen. Roger Marshall is trying to hold a seat Democrats last won in 1932 .</p> <p>In Texas, Democrat James Talarico is trying to end a decades-long Democratic drought against Republican Ken Paxton in what the BBC calls the most expensive Senate race ever .</p> <h2>What the numbers do and do not show</h2> <p>Registered Democrats lead among early voters in the available data, though only slightly more than half of states report registration breakdowns, limiting how far the figures can be treated as representative of nationwide trends . The Election Lab cautions that more early voters does not necessarily mean more votes will be cast overall .</p> <p>Charles Stewart III, director of the MIT Election Data and Science Lab, told Newsweek the surge was likely a combination of two related things: &quot;The greater interest in the election among Democrats (or voters who plan to vote for Democrats) and the resources campaigns have to turn out supporters.&quot;</p> <blockquote><p>In any event, it’s probably all part of the same story, which is that this is likely to be a good Democratic year, and it’s starting a little earlier than it has in previous elections.</p><p>&mdash; Charles Stewart III, Director, MIT Election Data and Science Lab</p></blockquote> <p>Michael McDonald, the University of Florida political science professor who runs the Election Lab, told Time that sustained patterns across days and states build confidence. &quot;Once you start seeing consistency across multiple days of voting and across multiple states, it starts giving us more confidence that whatever we&#39;re seeing in terms of relative engagement, that&#39;s likely going to carry through to election day,&quot; he said .</p> <p>Trump has often cast doubt on early voting, particularly by mail, and has urged voters to head to the polls in person on Election Day .</p> <h2>What happens next</h2> <p>Most early voting wrapped up Monday, with mail ballots still arriving at elections offices. Some states allow those ballots to be counted for a few days after polls close, so the picture could shift as states publish more current information .</p> <p>That matters because the Senate is the chamber that confirms judges and can investigate an administration. With seven races rated toss-ups and Democrats needing four seats, the early-vote surge is the first hard measure of engagement in a midterm that will decide whether Republicans keep unified control of Congress and the White House .</p> <p><em>Read the original, with every source linked, at <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/story/early-voting-tops-52-7-million-a-midterm-record-as-senate-control-hangs-on-tight">thegopfiles.com</a>. Republished under The GOP Files' <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/republish">free republishing terms</a>.</em></p> <img src="https://thegopfiles.com/api/rp/early-voting-tops-52-7-million-a-midterm-record-as-senate-control-hangs-on-tight.gif" alt="" width="1" height="1" style="border:0;width:1px;height:1px">

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Sources

1. Newsweek, “How Early Voting Surged in Senate Battlegrounds Compared to Prior Midterms” (2026-11-02). newsweek.com/how-early-voting-surged-senate-battlegrounds-co
2. bbc.com, “The US Senate races to watch in this year's midterm elections” (2026-11-02). bbc.com/news/articles/cqy7ljkprvjko

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