Storms forecast for four Senate battlegrounds on Election Day

Thunderstorms and rain showers are forecast across a large stretch of the central United States on Tuesday, Election Day, and the weather could complicate in-person voting in four states holding competitive Senate races: Iowa, Texas, Michigan and Kansas ¹.

Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win control of the Senate and a net gain of three to seize control of the House, according to Newsweek ¹. Several Senate races are close enough that a few hundred votes could decide the winner, the outlet reported ¹.

The forecast, published earlier this week by AccuWeather, shows rain in North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Wisconsin, Illinois, Tennessee, Mississippi, Michigan and New York ¹.

In Iowa, Republican U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson and Democratic state Representative Josh Turek are competing for an open Senate seat, and recent polls have shown them neck-and-neck ¹. Rain is likely across the entire state on Election Day, the forecast showed ¹.

From Channel GOPTalarico: Elon Musk is trying to buy Texas Senate seatJames Talarico · 140 plays · captioned, with the source named

In Texas, Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico are battling for a Senate seat in a race Newsweek describes as surprisingly competitive given the state's Republican lean ¹. Thunderstorms are forecast across eastern Texas, with severe weather possible in Houston and Dallas ¹.

In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers are in a closely contested race for an open Senate seat, with both parties pouring resources into the state ¹. In Kansas, Republican Senator Roger Marshall faces Democrat Adam Hamilton in a race polls have shown to be tight ¹.

There is the risk for severe weather from the southern and central parts of the Plains late Monday to the middle and lower parts of the Mississippi Valley on Tuesday

Turnout has already been high this year. Early voting began in Texas with a record 19 million registered voters eligible to cast ballots, and Georgia saw record-breaking statewide in-person early voting with more than 2 million votes, Newsweek reported ¹. Alaska is on track to meet or exceed its record from 2024 ¹.

Millions more Americans have yet to vote and plan to do so on Tuesday, when the weather could disrupt those plans ¹. Voters who want to avoid the storms may still be able to vote early, though the last day to do so has already passed in Tennessee and Louisiana ¹.

Why the Senate map is wider than expected

NPR reported that when the election cycle began, Democrats were seen as a longshot to pick up the Senate because so many seats up for election are in red states, but the field has widened as the year went on and the war in Iran continued ². Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio and Texas are all considered toss-ups by the Cook Political Report, and the races in those states are within the margin of error, NPR reported ².

NPR reported that North Carolina is now seen as a likely flip for Democrats and Georgia as a likely hold for Democrats, while South Carolina is only leaning Republican ².

I'm very energized

NPR reported that the key to whether Democrats win the Senate is likely Republican turnout, and that low GOP turnout could mean the difference between Democrats netting one or two seats and picking up six or seven ².

That matters because the four states facing storms are among the toss-ups NPR lists, and the copy reports that a few hundred votes could decide some of these races ¹².

The Record

1. Oct 13, 2026Early voting began in Georgia, with in-person early voting running through October 30 ².
2. Oct 30, 2026NPR reports Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio and Texas are toss-ups in the Cook Political Report ratings ².
3. Nov 3, 2026Election Day; storms and rain are forecast across the central U.S., including Iowa, Texas, Michigan and Kansas ¹.

Sources

1. Newsweek, “Election Day Storms Could Complicate Voting in 4 Senate Battlegrounds” (2026-10-30). newsweek.com/election-day-weather-forecast-storms-midterms-s
2. NPR, “Here are the Senate races to watch ahead of Election Day” (2026-10-30). npr.org/2026/10/30/g-s1-149975/2026-midterms-senate-map

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