CNN polls put Democrats ahead in Texas and Michigan Senate races before Nov. 3

New CNN polls show Democrats ahead in the Texas and Michigan Senate races five days before Election Day. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton 49% to 43% among likely voters. In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers 49% to 42% ¹.

The Texas poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 points, and the Michigan poll has one of plus or minus 4.7 points. The margin of error is the range within which the true result could fall. Both leads are only slightly larger than those margins, so neither race is settled ¹.

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The list of CNN polls was not limited to those two states. Political Wire reports CNN also had Democrat Troy Jackson ahead of Republican Sen. Susan Collins 49% to 45% in Maine. It had Democrat Adam Hamilton ahead of Republican Sen. Roger Marshall 49% to 45% in Kansas ¹. Political Wire did not give the dates the polls were taken, so we can't say how fresh each one is.

Other polls show a similar tilt

A separate poll in Michigan points the same way. Mitchell Research, working for CBS Detroit, surveyed 636 likely voters on Oct. 26 and 27. It found El-Sayed at 51% and Rogers at 44%, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 points ².

From Channel GOPTalarico: Elon Musk is trying to buy Texas Senate seatJames Talarico · 139 plays · captioned, with the source named

That lead is up from 4.2 points in the same pollster's survey earlier in October. Among independents, El-Sayed led 52% to 38% ². Voters 65 and older were a weak spot for him: Rogers led that group 62% to 35% ².

Averages of many polls are tighter than the CNN numbers. Al Jazeera cited RealClearPolling averages that show Talarico ahead 48.5% to 46.7% in Texas. In Michigan, the average has El-Sayed at 48% and Rogers at 46% ³.

What Democrats say

Democratic Rep. Maxwell Frost of Florida told Al Jazeera that El-Sayed has faced attacks, and that voters have not yet had enough direct conversations about him ³. El-Sayed, a Democrat, has been the target of ads that Frost called bigoted ³.

Frost said everyone has seen the negative bigoted and Islamophobic ads ³.

What happens next

Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3 ³. Al Jazeera reports Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats to reach 51, which would give them control of the chamber ³.

Polls are snapshots, not results. A lead inside the margin of error can vanish or grow by Tuesday, and turnout will decide both races. That matters because Texas and Michigan are two of the seats Democrats would likely need if they are to reach 51.

Nationally, RealClearPolling's average has Democrats ahead of Republicans 51.4% to 43.2% on the generic ballot, an 8.2-point gap ³. That question asks voters which party they plan to back for Congress.

The Record

1. Oct 1, 2026Mitchell Research's early-October Michigan poll had El-Sayed ahead of Rogers by 4.2 points. ²
2. Oct 27, 2026Mitchell Research finished a Michigan poll with El-Sayed at 51% and Rogers at 44%. ²
3. Oct 29, 2026CNN polls reported with Talarico up 49%-43% in Texas and El-Sayed up 49%-42% in Michigan. ¹

Sources

1. Political Wire, “Democrats Lead in Four Key Senate Races” (2026-10-29). politicalwire.com/2026/10/29/democrats-lead-in-four-key-sena
2. CBS Detroit, “Abdul El-Sayed widens lead over Mike Rogers to 7 points in newest Michigan Senate poll” (2026-10-28). cbsnews.com/detroit/news/el-sayed-widens-lead-rogers-michiga
3. Al Jazeera, “US midterms: Five days to go, what the polls say” (2026-10-29). aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/29/us-midterms-five-days-to-go-wh

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