Talarico leads Paxton 48% to 46% in Texas Senate poll; Abbott ahead for governor

Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton are in a dead heat for the U.S. Senate seat in Texas, a new poll finds. Talarico has 48 percent to Paxton's 46 percent, according to Emerson College Polling and The Hill ¹. That gap is within the poll's margin of error ¹.

Another 5 percent of voters were undecided, and 1 percent chose Libertarian Ted Brown ¹. When undecided voters were pressed on which way they lean, Talarico rose to 49 percent, Paxton to 48 percent and Brown to 3 percent ¹.

A slow shift toward Talarico

Emerson's last Texas poll was taken Aug. 9-10. It had Paxton at 47 percent and Talarico at 46 percent ². Emerson's executive director, Spencer Kimball, says the trend since then has been small but steady ¹.

Since August, Talarico’s support has slowly inched up by about a point each month, from 46% to 48%, while Paxton has hovered between 46% and 47%,

Kimball also pointed to the Libertarian candidate as a wild card. He said Paxton likely gains if Brown's support melts away, because those voters are independents or Republicans ¹. If Brown's support holds, Kimball said, Talarico benefits ¹.

Abbott holds a lead for governor

In the governor's race, Republican Greg Abbott, who is seeking a fourth term, has 49 percent to Democrat Gina Hinojosa's 45 percent ¹. Libertarian Pat Dixon has 1 percent, and 4 percent are undecided ¹. With undecided voters pushed to choose, Abbott leads 51 percent to 47 percent ¹.

The August Emerson poll had the same 49 to 45 split for governor ². Decision Desk HQ, an election-results and forecasting firm, rates the governor's race "lean Republican." It rates the Senate race a toss-up, with Talarico narrowly favored ¹.

Money pours in

The race has drawn huge fundraising and national attention in the fight for control of the Senate ¹. Talarico raised $64 million in the third quarter, compared with Paxton's $18 million ¹. Billionaire Elon Musk put $158 million into a super PAC (an outside group that can spend without limit) backing Paxton, according to filings last week ¹.

The poll surveyed 1,000 likely Texas voters from Oct. 17 to 19. Its credibility interval, which works like a margin of error, is plus or minus 3.1 percent ¹.

What happens next is simple: Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3. Texas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate in decades, and the race is close enough that turnout could decide it ¹.

That matters because a two-point lead with a 3.1-point cushion is not a lead anyone can bank. It does show a tightening map for Republicans in a state they have long dominated ¹.

The Record

1. Aug 10, 2026Emerson's August Texas poll ends with Paxton at 47%, Talarico at 46% ².
2. Oct 19, 2026Emerson's latest Texas poll closes after interviewing 1,000 likely voters from Oct. 17 ¹.
3. Oct 22, 2026Emerson and The Hill release the poll showing Talarico 48%, Paxton 46% ¹.

Sources

1. The Hill, “Talarico, Paxton in dead heat for Texas Senate, Abbott leads governor's race: Poll” (2026-10-22). thehill.com/homenews/6163841-emerson-polling-texas-senate-ra
2. Border Report, “Paxton, Talarico still fighting in tight Senate race, per latest Emerson-Nexstar poll” (2026-08-10). borderreport.com/news/elections/paxton-talarico-still-fighti

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