Talarico leads Paxton 50% to 43% in NYT/Siena poll, his best result in Texas Senate race

Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton 50% to 43% among likely voters in the Texas Senate race, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll released Sunday, Nov. 1 ¹. Newsweek calls it Talarico's strongest result yet from a nationally recognized pollster ¹. The election is Tuesday.

The poll surveyed 1,215 likely voters from Oct. 27 to Nov. 1, according to the University of Texas Texas Politics Project's poll tracker ². It lists another candidate at 0.5% and 6% of voters undecided ².

On tapeCBS News · Oct 30

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A shift from earlier in the year

The same pollster found the two tied at 47% each in late June, the tracker shows ². A Sept. 21-30 Times/Siena poll had Talarico ahead 49% to 43% ². Sunday's result shows Talarico at 50% to Paxton's 43%, up from 49% to 43% in that survey.

Other recent polls also lean his way, but by less. YouGov, a polling firm, had him ahead 51% to 47% from Oct. 26-29, and a Texas Southern University poll had him up 49% to 47% ². A Fox News poll from mid-October found the two tied at 49% ².

From Channel GOPTalarico: Elon Musk is trying to buy Texas Senate seatJames Talarico · 142 plays · captioned, with the source named

RealClearPolitics, a site that averages polls, put Talarico at 49% and Paxton at 46.5% in surveys taken Oct. 15 to Nov. 1. That is a 2.5-point edge ¹.

Betting markets move his way

Prediction markets, where traders bet on outcomes, also favor Talarico. Newsweek reported that Polymarket had him at about 76% to win and Kalshi at about 74% ¹. Kalshi's margin forecast suggested a win of about 3.8 percentage points ¹.

Those numbers are implied odds based on trading prices, not polls, and they can change quickly as traders react to news ¹. They are not votes.

What the candidates said

the powers that be and the powers that ought to be

Talarico has cast the race as a fight between ordinary Texans and powerful interests. He said his campaign stands with "teachers and nurses, farmers and ranchers" ¹.

Every poll shows it's gonna come down to the wire.

Paxton spoke at a San Antonio rally Sunday. He promoted a plan he calls the "Protecting the Texas Promise Plan" and urged Republicans to turn out ¹. Newsweek said it contacted both campaigns for comment on Monday ¹.

What happens next

Texas votes Tuesday. Talarico is trying to win a seat for Democrats in a state that has not sent one to the Senate since 1988 ¹. Polls can miss, especially in a race this close. The Times/Siena result is within the range of other recent surveys, and several of them show a smaller gap ².

That matters because Texas has backed Republican Senate candidates for decades, and the markets now treat Talarico as the favorite ¹. Voters who have not yet cast a ballot can still decide it.

The Record

1. Jun 27, 2026A Times/Siena poll fielded June 19-27 found Talarico and Paxton tied at 47% each ².
2. Sep 30, 2026A Times/Siena poll fielded Sept. 21-30 had Talarico ahead 49% to 43% ².
3. Nov 1, 2026A Times/Siena poll fielded Oct. 27-Nov. 1 put Talarico ahead 50% to 43% among likely voters ¹².

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<h2>Talarico leads Paxton 50% to 43% in NYT/Siena poll, his best result in Texas Senate race</h2> <p><em>By The GOP Files Campaign Desk. This article first appeared on <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/story/talarico-leads-paxton-50-to-43-in-nyt-siena-poll-his-best-result-in-texas-senate">The GOP Files</a> on Monday, November 2, 2026.</em></p> <p>Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton 50% to 43% among likely voters in the Texas Senate race, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll released Sunday, Nov. 1 . Newsweek calls it Talarico&#39;s strongest result yet from a nationally recognized pollster . The election is Tuesday.</p> <p>The poll surveyed 1,215 likely voters from Oct. 27 to Nov. 1, according to the University of Texas Texas Politics Project&#39;s poll tracker . It lists another candidate at 0.5% and 6% of voters undecided .</p> <h2>A shift from earlier in the year</h2> <p>The same pollster found the two tied at 47% each in late June, the tracker shows . A Sept. 21-30 Times/Siena poll had Talarico ahead 49% to 43% . Sunday&#39;s result shows Talarico at 50% to Paxton&#39;s 43%, up from 49% to 43% in that survey.</p> <p>Other recent polls also lean his way, but by less. YouGov, a polling firm, had him ahead 51% to 47% from Oct. 26-29, and a Texas Southern University poll had him up 49% to 47% . A Fox News poll from mid-October found the two tied at 49% .</p> <p>RealClearPolitics, a site that averages polls, put Talarico at 49% and Paxton at 46.5% in surveys taken Oct. 15 to Nov. 1. That is a 2.5-point edge .</p> <h2>Betting markets move his way</h2> <p>Prediction markets, where traders bet on outcomes, also favor Talarico. Newsweek reported that Polymarket had him at about 76% to win and Kalshi at about 74% . Kalshi&#39;s margin forecast suggested a win of about 3.8 percentage points .</p> <p>Those numbers are implied odds based on trading prices, not polls, and they can change quickly as traders react to news . They are not votes.</p> <h2>What the candidates said</h2> <blockquote><p>the powers that be and the powers that ought to be</p><p>&mdash; James Talarico, Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate, Texas</p></blockquote> <p>Talarico has cast the race as a fight between ordinary Texans and powerful interests. He said his campaign stands with &quot;teachers and nurses, farmers and ranchers&quot; .</p> <blockquote><p>Every poll shows it&#39;s gonna come down to the wire.</p><p>&mdash; Ken Paxton, Republican candidate for U.S. Senate, Texas</p></blockquote> <p>Paxton spoke at a San Antonio rally Sunday. He promoted a plan he calls the &quot;Protecting the Texas Promise Plan&quot; and urged Republicans to turn out . Newsweek said it contacted both campaigns for comment on Monday .</p> <h2>What happens next</h2> <p>Texas votes Tuesday. Talarico is trying to win a seat for Democrats in a state that has not sent one to the Senate since 1988 . Polls can miss, especially in a race this close. The Times/Siena result is within the range of other recent surveys, and several of them show a smaller gap .</p> <p>That matters because Texas has backed Republican Senate candidates for decades, and the markets now treat Talarico as the favorite . Voters who have not yet cast a ballot can still decide it.</p> <p><em>Read the original, with every source linked, at <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/story/talarico-leads-paxton-50-to-43-in-nyt-siena-poll-his-best-result-in-texas-senate">thegopfiles.com</a>. Republished under The GOP Files' <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/republish">free republishing terms</a>.</em></p> <img src="https://thegopfiles.com/api/rp/talarico-leads-paxton-50-to-43-in-nyt-siena-poll-his-best-result-in-texas-senate.gif" alt="" width="1" height="1" style="border:0;width:1px;height:1px">

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Sources

1. Newsweek, “James Talarico Chances of Victory Hit Record High After Best Poll Yet” (2026-11-02). newsweek.com/james-talarico-chances-victory-record-high-poll
2. University of Texas at Austin, Texas Politics Project, “Texas 2026 U.S. Senate poll tracker” (2026-11-01). texaspolitics.utexas.edu/blog/texas-2026-u-s-senate-poll-tra

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