New polls show Democrats gaining in red-state Senate races with one week to go

New polling suggests Democrats are making surprising gains in Senate races in states that usually vote Republican. The shift comes with less than one week left before the Nov. 3 midterm election ¹.

A New York Times/Siena University poll has Republican Darline Graham tied with Democrat Annie Andrews in South Carolina. Graham was appointed to fill the seat of her late brother, Sen. Lindsey Graham ¹. South Carolina is a reliably red state.

The tie fits with earlier signs of a close race. A Trafalgar Group poll taken Sept. 23-25 had Graham at 43.4% and Andrews at 42.3%, with 8.5% undecided. The margin of error was 2.9 percentage points ². That is a different poll from the Times/Siena survey.

North Carolina and Texas

In North Carolina, former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper leads Republican Michael Whatley by double digits, according to PBS NewsHour. A Democrat has not been elected to the Senate there in nearly 20 years ¹. Cooper has centered his campaign on affordability ¹.

From Channel GOPTalarico: Elon Musk is trying to buy Texas Senate seatJames Talarico · 139 plays · captioned, with the source named

Vice President J.D. Vance was in North Carolina to make the Republican case ¹. In Texas, President Trump and Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico held rallies a few miles apart in Lubbock on Monday night. Texas has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate in more than three decades ¹.

Trump used an insulting nickname for Talarico. Talarico told the crowd that he knew they were not the only show in town that night and thanked the 4,000 people who showed up ¹. Republican candidate Ken Paxton, the state attorney general, called Talarico "the most radical Democrat to ever run in Texas history." ¹

What happens next

Trump heads to Ohio to rally voters in a race that could decide Senate control ¹. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to retake the majority ¹.

Pennsylvania shows the pressure on Republicans. It helped return Trump to the White House two years ago. Now worries about the economy and corruption have weakened support for Trump and the Republican base there, PBS reported ¹. Some voters still back him. One said Trump is "doing more for us than anybody else has." ¹

Polls are snapshots, not results, and one survey cannot settle a race. A tie in South Carolina and a lead in North Carolina still depend on who actually votes. The Trafalgar poll's margin of error also means the South Carolina race could lean either way ².

The pattern is worth watching. When Democrats compete in states Republicans once took for granted, the Senate map gets harder for the GOP.

The Record

1. Sep 28, 2026Trafalgar Group poll of South Carolina's Senate race has Graham 43.4%, Andrews 42.3% ².
2. Oct 27, 2026Trump and Democrat James Talarico hold rival rallies in Lubbock, Texas ¹.
3. Oct 28, 2026PBS reports a Times/Siena poll with South Carolina's Senate race tied; Trump heads to Ohio ¹.

Sources

1. PBS NewsHour, “New polls suggest surprising Democratic gains in red-state Senate races” (2026-10-28). pbs.org/newshour/show/new-polls-suggest-surprising-democrati
2. ABC News 4 (Charleston), “Candidates, experts react after new poll shows SC's US Senate race as neck and neck” (2026-09-28). abcnews4.com/news/local/candidates-experts-react-after-new-p

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