Final Marquette poll has Crowley up 7 points on Tiffany in Wisconsin governor race

Democrat David Crowley leads Republican Tom Tiffany by 7 percentage points in the race for Wisconsin governor. That is the finding of the final Marquette University Law School poll before the Nov. 3 election ¹. It is Crowley's largest lead since Marquette began polling the two men against each other ¹.

Among likely voters, 51 percent said they would vote for Crowley and 44 percent for Tiffany. Another 4 percent were undecided ¹. Among all registered voters, Crowley led 47 percent to 44 percent, with 9 percent undecided ¹.

On tapeWISN 12 News · Oct 28

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Independents move toward Crowley

Marquette surveyed 818 registered Wisconsin voters from Oct. 14 to 22. The sample included 668 likely voters ¹². The margin of error was plus or minus 4.7 points for likely voters and 4.3 points for registered voters ¹.

That matters when reading the 7-point gap. The margin of error on the difference between two candidates is about double the figure for each candidate, so the lead is within the poll's margin of error ². It is a clear edge, but not a sure thing.

The trend is favorable for Crowley. Marquette's late-September poll had him ahead by 3 points among likely voters and 1 point among all voters ¹. Independents account for most of the gain. Among likely independent voters, 56 percent chose Crowley and 26 percent chose Tiffany ².

Independents are not wildly enthusiastic about Crowley. Among all registered voters, 37 percent view him favorably and 44 percent unfavorably ². Tiffany fares worse: 40 percent favorable and 50 percent unfavorable ². Franklin put it this way: “Though Crowley is seen unfavorably by independents, Tiffany is especially seen unfavorably by them.” ¹

Trump and prices weigh on the race

The poll also shows President Donald Trump at a low in Wisconsin. Among registered voters, 37 percent approve of his job performance and 61 percent disapprove ¹. Marquette's polls have shown his standing declining steadily since February ¹.

Prices are the top concern. Of those surveyed, 67 percent said Trump's policies, including his tariffs and the war in Iran, have increased inflation. Only 19 percent said they have decreased it ¹. Inflation and the cost of living were the most important issue for 48 percent of respondents. Illegal immigration and border security were a distant second at 12 percent ¹.

The attorney general race is much quieter. Seventy-two percent of registered voters said they don't know much about Republican Eric Toney, the Fond du Lac County district attorney. Fifty-six percent hadn't heard enough about Democratic Attorney General Josh Kaul, who has served nearly eight years ¹.

What happens next

Wisconsin votes on Tuesday, Nov. 3. Polls are snapshots taken days earlier, and turnout will decide the result. The pattern is still worth noting: the final poll moved toward Crowley, and voters who say they are worried about prices say they blame Trump's policies ¹.

The Record

1. Sep 30, 2026Marquette's September poll had Crowley ahead of Tiffany 49% to 46% among likely voters ³.
2. Oct 28, 2026Marquette's final poll, taken Oct. 14-22, put Crowley ahead 51% to 44% among likely voters ¹.
3. Nov 3, 2026Wisconsin's general election is scheduled for Nov. 3 ¹.

Sources

1. WPR, “David Crowley leads Tom Tiffany in final Marquette poll before Election Day” (2026-10-28). wpr.org/news/marquette-poll-crowley-tiffany-october-28-2026
2. Marquette Law School Poll, “Marquette Law School Poll release, Oct. 28, 2026” (2026-10-28). law.marquette.edu/poll/
3. Fox 11, “Governor's race continues to be tight, Marquette poll finds” (2026-09-30). fox11online.com/news/election/2026-wisconsin-governor-race-d

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