Fox News shifts Ohio Senate and governor races to Lean Democratic a week before midterms

Fox News moved both of Ohio's marquee statewide races toward Democrats on Tuesday, one week before the Nov. 3 midterm election. The Ohio Senate and governor's races shifted from toss-ups to "Lean Democratic" in the network's latest power rankings, according to Newsweek ¹.

The Senate race pits Republican Jon Husted against Democratic former Senator Sherrod Brown. The governor's race matches Republican Vivek Ramaswamy against Democrat Amy Acton ¹.

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Brown led Husted by 3.3 points and Acton led Ramaswamy by 4.4 points in RealClearPolitics' polling aggregate as of Tuesday ¹. A Fox News poll conducted by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research gave Brown a 5-point lead, 52 percent to 47 percent, among 1,592 likely voters from October 15 to 19, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points ¹.

In the governor's race, the Fox News poll had Acton ahead by 2 points, 50 percent to 48 percent. A Marist poll put her up 7 points, 50 percent to 43 percent ¹.

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Why the forecaster moved

Rémy Numa, who leads the Fox News Power Rankings, wrote that Ohio voters' familiarity with Brown, who served in the Senate from 2007 to 2025, makes it harder for Husted to "campaign on socialism and woke politics" ¹.

On the governor's race, Numa wrote the change is "less about the response to the ad," but more about the campaign feeling the need to run it, adding that Ramaswamy "has struggled in favorability ratings throughout his political career" ¹. The ad features Acton's estranged mother, Donna Arthur, accusing Acton of lying ¹.

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Republican Governor Mike DeWine told reporters last week he believed the Ramaswamy campaign running the ad was "wrong," and that it should have been taken down ¹. Trump defended the ad, telling reporters it was a mother speaking badly against Amy Acton and that to him it was very easy ¹.

The new ratings align with other forecasters on the governor's race but are more bullish for Democrats on the Senate race. Both the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball give Acton a modest edge in the governor's race, placing it in their "Lean Democratic" categories, but both viewed the Ohio Senate race as a pure toss-up as of Tuesday ¹.

Ohio has voted for Trump in all three of his runs, and his 11-point win in 2024 was the largest Republican margin in decades ¹. The shift comes as Trump's approval rating has slipped due to voter frustration with the state of the economy and cost of living, according to Newsweek ¹.

That matters because Ohio was once one of the most important swing states in the country, and Democrats are now contesting it in the final week. Historically, the party in the White House loses seats in the midterms when the president is unpopular, and Democrats believe Trump's low national approval rating will translate into electoral gains ¹.

Data centers have also become a central issue. Democrats argue that Husted's work to bring data centers into the state as lieutenant governor leaves him at odds with voters who are less supportive of their development. Husted's campaign has noted that he introduced the Ratepayer Protection Act in the Senate, which would have required states to consider standards for when data centers and other large electricity users connect to the grid ¹.

Newsweek said it contacted the Acton, Brown, Husted and Ramaswamy campaigns for comment via email ¹. The election is Tuesday, Nov. 3.

The Record

1. Oct 15, 2026A Fox News poll of 1,592 likely voters from October 15 to 19 gave Brown a 5-point lead over Husted, 52 percent to 47 percent ¹.
2. Oct 21, 2026An InsiderAdvantage poll of 1,200 likely voters from October 21 to 22 had Brown up 2.3 points, 46.7 percent to 44.4 percent ¹.
3. Oct 27, 2026Fox News moved the Ohio Senate and governor's races from toss-ups to Lean Democratic ¹.

Sources

1. Newsweek, “Ramaswamy, Husted Dealt Blow in Fox News Forecast One Week Before Midterms” (2026-10-27). newsweek.com/ramaswamy-husted-dealt-blow-fox-news-forecast-w
2. The Hill, “Who has the edge one week before the midterms?” (2026-10-27). thehill.com/homenews/campaign/fight-for-2028/6175006-republi

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