Trump and Paxton rally in Texas as Talarico holds a competing event a few miles away

President Donald Trump and Democrat James Talarico are holding competing rallies in Lubbock on Tuesday night, exactly one week before Election Day, in a Texas Senate race that most polls in the wire copy show Talarico leading by 2 to 5 points ¹.

Trump is scheduled to speak at 6 p.m. Central at the Lubbock Memorial Civic Center alongside Ken Paxton, Texas' attorney general and the Republican nominee for the Senate. Talarico, the Democratic nominee and an Austin state representative, takes the stage about an hour later at the Fiesta Center, less than three miles away ¹.

On tapeUSA TODAY · Oct 27

▶7:23

Trump starts his day in South Texas with a 2 p.m. Central speech at the Port of Corpus Christi, which is 3 p.m. EDT ¹³. Secretary of State Marco Rubio plans to help Trump show off a newly arrived oil tanker filled with Venezuelan crude to be processed in Texas refineries, according to a congressional aide and two U.S. officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity ².

Trump said as he left Washington that the administration would accept a million barrels of oil and give it to people to use the way they want, without mentioning Rubio ².

From Channel GOPTalarico: Elon Musk is trying to buy Texas Senate seatJames Talarico · 139 plays · captioned, with the source named

The race is among the most expensive in the country. Talarico raised $64 million in the third quarter to Paxton's $18 million, while Elon Musk gave $158 million to the Senate GOP's main super PAC, which passed the same amount to a group backing Paxton ¹. In Lubbock County, Talarico raised $96,086 in itemized contributions from 306 donors in the third quarter, compared with $53,204 from 97 donors for Paxton, according to a Newsweek analysis of Federal Election Commission filings ¹.

Tuesday's stops mark Trump's fourth trip to Texas since Labor Day, after the GOP's midterm convention in Dallas, an October 1 event in Denton and a San Antonio rally with Paxton on October 7 ¹. The Lubbock event, organized by the Republican National Committee, opens its doors at 2:30 p.m. Central, with a program starting at 4:30 p.m. ¹.

On tapeCBS19 · Oct 27

▶2:27

Talarico's event is a stop on his "Clear Eyes, Full Hearts" tour. Doors open at 6 p.m. Central, and the program begins at 7 p.m. Central. His campaign moved the rally on Monday from the Frazier Alumni Pavilion on the Texas Tech campus to the larger Fiesta Center, at 1902 East Fourth Street ¹.

The Lubbock County Democratic Party has also promoted a protest outside the Civic Center from 2 to 6 p.m. ¹.

The Univision/YouGov poll gave Talarico his widest lead, 50 percent to Paxton's 45 percent, among 1,000 registered voters surveyed from October 13 to 21. Emerson College/Nexstar found Talarico ahead 48 percent to 46 percent among 1,000 likely voters surveyed from October 17 to 19, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. A Fox News poll conducted from October 15 to 19 found the two candidates tied at 49 percent among 1,398 likely voters ¹.

Republicans need rural counties to supply at least a quarter of all votes to keep winning statewide. Through October 23, voters with a Democratic primary history outnumbered those with a Republican one by about 75,000 ¹.

"This doesn't necessarily mean that a bunch of Republicans have become Democrats in Texas," Brendan Steinhauser, a Republican strategist in Texas, told Newsweek. "It's more that Republican voters might not be as enthusiastic to vote this year as they have been in the past" ¹.

Matt Angle, a Democratic strategist and director of the Lone Star Project, told Newsweek that "Texas is still a state that favors Republicans." His party, he said, has to earn it: "It doesn't just fall to us. We have to take it away from the Republicans" ¹.

Texas is one of three Republican-held Senate seats where the Cook Political Report's October polling found Democrats ahead, alongside Iowa and Ohio. Decision Desk HQ gives Talarico a 55 percent chance of winning ¹.

That matters because Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office in 32 years, according to the Associated Press ². The pattern is that both parties are treating one night in one West Texas city as a test of whether Trump's pull still decides the biggest red state.

The Record

1. Oct 7, 2026Trump held a San Antonio rally with Paxton ¹.
2. Oct 23, 2026Through this date, voters with a Democratic primary history outnumbered those with a Republican one by about 75,000 ¹.
3. Oct 27, 2026Trump speaks in Corpus Christi at 2 p.m. Central and in Lubbock at 6 p.m. Central; Talarico holds a Lubbock rally at 7 p.m. Central ¹.

Sources

1. Newsweek, “Talarico, Trump Face Off with Dueling Texas Rallies a Week Before Midterm” (2026-10-27). newsweek.com/talarico-trump-face-off-with-dueling-texas-rall
2. PBS NewsHour, “WATCH LIVE: Trump campaigns for Ken Paxton at rallies in Texas” (2026-10-27). pbs.org/newshour/politics/watch-live-trump-campaigns-for-ken
3. The Hill, “Watch live: Trump makes final pitch to Texas voters” (2026-10-27). thehill.com/video-clips/6175606-watch-live-donald-trump-gop-

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