Cook moves Ohio governor race to lean Democratic after Ramaswamy ad on Acton's mother

The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election forecaster, has moved Ohio's governor race from "toss up" to "lean Democrat." It now favors Democrat Amy Acton to beat Republican Vivek Ramaswamy ¹. Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3.

The shift follows a Ramaswamy campaign ad featuring Acton's estranged mother. In the ad, the mother claims Acton is a "liar" and urges voters not to elect her ¹.

On tapeNBC News · Oct 23

▶16:20

What the ad said and how it landed

Acton was removed from her mother's custody at age 12. Her campaign says she was sexually abused by her stepfather, and that her mother stayed with him until his death ¹.

Democrats widely condemned the ad. So did some Republicans, including Ohio's current governor, Mike DeWine ¹. President Trump and Vice President Vance have both strongly defended it ¹.

Ramaswamy has owned the ad. At a campaign stop in Westerville, Ohio, he confirmed it came from his campaign ².

It is an ad from our campaign

He also said he has never met Acton and that the woman in the ad was not paid ². Acton, a physician and former director of the Ohio Department of Health, says she was taken from her mother's home because of abuse and neglect ².

On tapeNBC4 Columbus · Oct 23

▶2:50

Why Cook changed its rating

Jessica Taylor, Cook's Senate and governor's editor, wrote that Republicans she spoke with did not think the ad was smart ¹.

This is not the kind of TV ad you run if you’re winning — or even if you’re confident you can.

Cook ran its own poll of the race before the ad came out. It found Acton ahead of Ramaswamy by five points ¹. Taylor wrote that recent polls were trending toward Acton even before the ad became national news ¹.

Sabato's Crystal Ball, another nonpartisan forecaster, moved the race from "toss up" to "leans Democratic" earlier this week ¹. Decision Desk HQ, a partner of The Hill, gives Acton a 62 percent chance of winning ¹.

What happens next

Ramaswamy's campaign is not backing away. It is now spending $4 million to put the ad on the air ¹. Acton's fundraising has surged since the ad's release, according to The Hill ¹.

Ramaswamy has said Acton has declined to debate him and does not allow cameras at her events. He has named property taxes, health care costs and electric bills as key issues ².

That matters because a rating change is a forecast, not a result. "Lean Democrat" means Cook sees Acton as the favorite, not the sure winner. Voters will still decide on Nov. 3.

The pattern is worth noting. Cook's editor says the ad is not what a campaign runs when it is winning, and the campaign is paying millions to air it anyway ¹. Ohio is one of the governor's races Republicans had hoped to hold.

The Record

1. Jan 1, 1978Police and court records show Acton's stepfather was charged with raping his stepdaughter. He pleaded not guilty and died in 2004 ².
2. Oct 20, 2026Ramaswamy confirms the ad featuring Acton's estranged mother came from his campaign ².
3. Oct 23, 2026Cook Political Report moves Ohio's governor race from toss up to lean Democrat ¹.

Sources

1. The Hill, “Cook Political Report shifts Ohio governor's race from toss-up to lean Democrat” (2026-10-23). thehill.com/homenews/campaign/6169489-cook-political-report-
2. WSYX/ABC 6 (via ABC News 4), “Vivek Ramaswamy defends campaign ad featuring Amy Acton's estranged mother” (2026-10-20). abcnews4.com/news/nation-world/vivek-ramaswamy-defends-campa

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