More than 23 million Americans had voted, in person or by mail, as of Friday afternoon, Oct. 23, according to the University of Florida's Election Lab 1. The midterm election is Nov. 3, 11 days away. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to retake the majority in each chamber of Congress 1.
Where the numbers stand
In the battleground states, Texas has recorded more than 2.8 million early votes and Florida almost 2.2 million 1. Georgia is near 1.5 million and North Carolina is above 1.2 million 1. Michigan and Ohio have each passed 900,000 ballots 1.
Compared with the last midterms in 2022, early voting is soaring in many of these states 1. In Georgia, early votes already equal more than 40% of the total 2022 turnout 1. Texas is at 35%, North Carolina at 33% and Florida at 27% 1.
Democrats lead the returned ballots
Registered Democrats account for 45% of early ballots cast, compared with 30% from registered Republicans 1. That counts returned ballots by party registration, not the candidate a voter chose 1. The gap is especially wide in North Carolina, Kansas and Iowa, which traditionally favor Republicans 1.
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Colorado shows the same pattern. As of late Monday, 509,364 voters there had returned ballots, about 12.6% of active voters 2. Democrats cast 33.4% of them and Republicans 24.2%, while unaffiliated voters cast 41.3% 2. Early turnout from all parties is ahead of the 2022 midterm 2.
Voters 55 and older cast about 68.5% of Colorado's returned ballots so far 2.
Why turnout is up
The Guardian reports that turnout is being driven partly by public frustration over Trump's handling of the economy, the cost of living and his war on Iran 1. It also cites the president's record-low approval ratings 1. Republicans are fighting to defend seats in places where Trump won by wide margins two years ago 1.
Republicans have historically preferred to vote on Election Day, the Guardian notes 1. Even so, some strategists worry the wider gap signals a "red undertow," meaning GOP voters staying home over high gas prices, the Iran conflict and sweeping tariffs 1.
Democrats, for their part, have been energized by Trump's growing unpopularity and by voter anger over affordability 1. They believe that gives them chances to flip seats they have not won in decades 1.
Mail ballots and what comes next
More than 57 million mail-in ballots have been requested or sent nationally, up from 52 million requested in 2022, according to NBC News data from the firm TargetSmart 1. The University of Florida's Election Lab puts the number of requested mail ballots above 59 million 1. The Guardian says the Supreme Court struck down Trump administration executive orders aimed at restricting mail voting in September 1.
That matters because early numbers are a snapshot, not a result. Early voters tend to be older and are somewhat less likely to support Republicans, so the final electorate may look different. Election Day on Nov. 3 will fill in the rest of the picture.
The Record
- The Guardian reports the Supreme Court struck down Trump administration executive orders aimed at restricting mail-in voting, in September (exact day not given) 1.
- Colorado had 509,364 returned ballots as of late Monday, with Democrats at 33.4% and Republicans at 24.2% 2.
- More than 23 million Americans had voted early, with registered Democrats at 45% of early ballots and Republicans at 30% 1.
Sources
- The Guardian, “Surging turnout, with Democrats voting more: key takeaways from early voting data” (2026-10-23). theguardian.com/us-news/2026/oct/23/early-voting-data-key-ta
- Colorado Newsline / States Newsroom, “Early voting in Colorado outpaces 2022 midterm election” (2026-10-21). newsfromthestates.com/article/early-voting-colorado-outpaces
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