Nearly 33 million early ballots cast as midterms near, tracking data shows

Nearly 33 million people had voted early as of Tuesday afternoon, with early voting underway in nearly every state and Election Day on Nov. 3 still a week away, according to tracking by the University of Florida's Election Lab ². About half of those ballots were cast in person and half by mail, and the total already represents more than a quarter of the roughly 122 million Americans who voted in the 2022 midterms ².

In the 27 states with a formal party registration system, registered Democrats had cast roughly 45% of early ballots and Republicans about 31%, with another 24% of early voters not registered with either party, the Election Lab data shows ². The figures reflect only a voter's registration, not the candidates they chose ².

Michael McDonald, the political science professor at the University of Florida who runs the Election Lab, told TIME that early voting data cannot by itself be relied on to predict an outcome, but that consistent patterns across days and states build confidence about relative engagement ². He also said Republicans are expected to make up ground on Election Day, as they have in recent years ².

Hispanic turnout draws attention

Hispanic early voting is outpacing its levels at the same point in the 2022 and 2024 cycles, a trend most noticeable in states with large Hispanic populations such as Texas ². In the Texas Senate race between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, more than 4 million votes had been cast early, an estimated 41% of the total votes expected in the race, according to tracking by VoteHub ².

From Channel GOPImpeachment, Super Packs, and the Powers That BeJames Talarico · 140 plays · captioned, with the source named

The state's Hispanic population represented 24% of the vote as of Monday, a percentage point higher than its share of the final vote tally in the 2024 election, VoteHub found ². McDonald called the numbers "eye-popping" and said that if Hispanic voters are showing up in force now, it is almost certain to change the diversity of the electorate this cycle ².

Bernard Fraga, a political science professor at Emory University, told TIME the early data tells a story about which party's 2024 voters are returning. He said it is a story about Democrats who voted in 2024 persisting, and Republicans who voted in 2024 so far at least staying home ².

Longtime Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg pointed to Hispanic participation as the most significant signal in the early numbers. He said it is almost certain that this heightened performance will carry over through Election Day, and that it will become one of the big storylines of the election ².

What happens next

Days of early voting remain before Nov. 3, and tens of millions more Americans are still expected to vote ². McDonald's caution is the key to reading the numbers: early ballots show who has voted so far, not who will win, and Election Day turnout has historically favored Republicans ².

That matters because control of Congress is on the ballot Tuesday, and the early-vote gap is one of the few concrete measures available before the results arrive ². The pattern is a Democratic edge in ballots already cast, with the Republican share of the electorate still to be determined on Election Day ².

The Record

1. Oct 5, 2026A Reuters/Ipsos poll found just 24% of Hispanic Americans approved of Trump's job performance, the lowest of his two terms ².
2. Oct 27, 2026Nearly 33 million people had voted early as of Tuesday afternoon, more than a quarter of the 2022 midterm electorate ².
3. Nov 3, 2026Election Day, with early voting still underway in the days before it ².

Sources

1. Newsweek, “Americans Are Voting With Their Wallets Ahead of the Midterms” (2026-10-28). newsweek.com/americans-politics-shopping-boycotts-midterms-2
2. TIME, “What Early Voting Data Is Showing About the Midterm Elections” (2026-10-27). time.com/article/2026/10/27/midterm-elections-early-voting-d

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