Texas early vote tops 4.5 million, up 74%, as Talarico and Paxton run neck and neck

Texans have cast 4,538,667 early ballots, in person and by mail, as of Monday, Oct. 26, according to unofficial figures from the Texas secretary of state ¹. That is nearly 24 percent of the state's registered voters ¹. Early voting is up 74 percent from the same point in the 2022 midterm cycle ¹.

Early voting began Oct. 19 and runs through Oct. 30. Election Day is Nov. 3 ². Texas entered the election with a record 19 million registered voters ¹.

On tapeABC News · Oct 26

▶2:59

A Senate race within the margin of error

Democratic state Rep. James Talarico is running against Republican state Attorney General Ken Paxton for a U.S. Senate seat ¹. Democrats have not won a statewide race in Texas since 1994 ¹.

The RealClearPolitics polling average, covering surveys from Oct. 8 to 21, has Talarico ahead 48.4 percent to 46.9 percent ¹. A Fox News poll of likely voters had them tied at 49 percent ¹. An Emerson College/Nexstar poll had Talarico at 49 percent and Paxton at 48 percent ¹.

From Channel GOPTalarico: Paxton skipped the Texas Senate debateJames Talarico · 146 plays · captioned, with the source named

Texas Public Opinion Research polled 969 likely voters from Oct. 15 to 18. It found Talarico at 51 percent and Paxton at 47 percent, with a margin of error of 3.9 points ². That four-point margin is one point narrower than in the same firm's poll last month ².

In that poll, independents backed Talarico 66 percent to 28 percent. Men favored Paxton 50 percent to 47 percent ². On cost of living, Talarico led 51 percent to 43 percent ².

On tapeUSA TODAY · Oct 23

▶2:37

D. Stephen Voss, a University of Kentucky political science professor, told Newsweek that a race seen as a toss-up pulls more people to the polls ¹. Voss said the close race could help Republicans rally their own supporters. He also warned that Texas could be showing the same Democratic enthusiasm gap seen in special elections since Trump returned to office ¹.

Musk money and the campaign's tone

Billionaire Elon Musk gave $158 million to the Senate Leadership Fund, which passed the same amount to Texas PAC, a major outside group backing Paxton ¹. Musk also gave $10 million to the Lone Star Liberty PAC, which also supports Paxton ¹.

Paxton has said the race is tight. On Oct. 21 he posted on X that every bit of support matters ¹. Newsweek said it had asked both campaigns for comment ¹.

What happens next

Early voting continues through Oct. 30, and the remaining ballots will be cast on Election Day, Nov. 3 ². The early numbers show turnout, not who is winning. Texas does not report results by party registration, so these totals do not show how the ballots were cast.

That matters because Texas has long been treated as out of reach for Democrats. A Senate race inside the margin of error, with turnout running far above 2022, shows the state is competitive.

The Record

1. Nov 8, 1994Last year Democrats won a statewide election in Texas, according to Newsweek's account ¹.
2. Oct 19, 2026Early voting began in Texas with a record 19 million registered voters ¹.
3. Oct 26, 2026Texas had recorded 4,538,667 early votes, up 74 percent from the same point in 2022 ¹.

Sources

1. Newsweek, “What Record-Breaking Texas Early Voting Says About Talarico vs. Paxton Race” (2026-10-27). newsweek.com/what-record-breaking-texas-early-voting-says-ab
2. FOX 7 Austin, “Talarico leads Paxton in new poll as early voting continues in Texas” (2026-10-23). fox7austin.com/news/talarico-leads-paxton-new-poll-early-vot

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