RNC chair Gruters says Republicans have a turnout problem as Democrats lead early vote

Republican National Committee (RNC) Chair Joe Gruters acknowledged Sunday that Republicans have a voter turnout problem. He was asked about it on The Hill's Sunday program, according to a republished report, and he answered affirmatively ¹.

Gruters tied the gap to habit. Democrats usually vote early, he said, while Republicans are more likely to vote on Election Day ¹. He said the party expects high turnout nationwide and considers its base motivated, and that a Republican win depends on supporters actually voting ¹.

On tapeFOX 4 Dallas-Fort Worth · Oct 27

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What the early numbers show

The early-vote data in some states backs up the worry. In North Carolina, Democratic early in-person votes rose from about 214,000 in 2022 to more than 327,000 this year, a 53% increase, through the first five days of early voting ². Republican turnout fell nearly 5% ².

Through that Monday, 14.1% of registered North Carolina Democrats had voted, compared with 6.5% of Republicans ². In 2022 at the same point, the rates were 8.6% for Democrats and 7.2% for Republicans ².

From Channel GOPRepublican senator: House is lost, Trump must own itThom Tillis · 244 plays · captioned, with the source named

New Jersey shows a similar split. On Friday, Republicans cast 20,564 in-person early votes, down 26.5% from the same day in 2025, while Democrats cast 33,803 ³. Counting mail ballots reported through Thursday, Democrats led Republicans by 353,045 votes ³.

There is a caveat. Those figures reflect party registration, not votes for individual candidates ³. Some Democrats who would otherwise vote on Election Day may simply be voting early, and the reverse may be true for Republicans ².

The receipts

Last week, Gruters made turnout the party's central hope. He said Republicans have a path to win if they turn out their voters, and he called President Donald Trump a turnout machine ⁴. He also said he never thought he would see Texas as close as it is ⁴.

The president is a turnout machine. That's what he's done.

Texas Democratic Party Chair Kendall Scudder, appearing alongside Gruters, recounted his own early doubts about whether Texas could ever turn blue, and said the state will not be won overnight ⁴.

Republicans are not unanimous in their confidence. Sen. Thom Tillis, a retiring North Carolina Republican, told Politico he is predicting a shellacking for his party and said Election Day will amount to a whoop-ass for the GOP ². He also cautioned against denying measurable facts ².

What happens next

Polls close Tuesday, November 3. The RNC says Trump will hold telephone rallies in 19 states during the final 72 hours ¹.

Emerson College Polling and CNN/SSRS both show Democrats leading Republicans by 10 points nationally ¹. Decision Desk HQ, a partner of The Hill, projects an 83% chance of Democratic control of the House and a 62% chance of a Democratic Senate win ¹.

That matters because the party in power is now openly counting on a late surge. Early voting can't settle the outcome. But the head of the Republican Party's national committee has said out loud that his side has a gap to close in two days.

The Record

1. Oct 27, 2026Gruters says Trump is a turnout machine and Republicans just have to turn out their voters, at a Texas event with Democratic chair Kendall Scudder ⁴.
2. Oct 31, 2026New Jersey Republicans cast 20,564 in-person early votes, down 26.5% from the same day in 2025 ³.
3. Nov 1, 2026Gruters answers affirmatively when asked if Republicans have a turnout problem, per a report republished from The Hill ¹.

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<h2>RNC chair Gruters says Republicans have a turnout problem as Democrats lead early vote</h2> <p><em>By The GOP Files Campaign Desk. This article first appeared on <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/story/rnc-chair-gruters-says-republicans-have-a-turnout-problem-as-democrats-lead-early">The GOP Files</a> on Sunday, November 1, 2026.</em></p> <p>Republican National Committee (RNC) Chair Joe Gruters acknowledged Sunday that Republicans have a voter turnout problem. He was asked about it on The Hill&#39;s Sunday program, according to a republished report, and he answered affirmatively .</p> <p>Gruters tied the gap to habit. Democrats usually vote early, he said, while Republicans are more likely to vote on Election Day . He said the party expects high turnout nationwide and considers its base motivated, and that a Republican win depends on supporters actually voting .</p> <h2>What the early numbers show</h2> <p>The early-vote data in some states backs up the worry. In North Carolina, Democratic early in-person votes rose from about 214,000 in 2022 to more than 327,000 this year, a 53% increase, through the first five days of early voting . Republican turnout fell nearly 5% .</p> <p>Through that Monday, 14.1% of registered North Carolina Democrats had voted, compared with 6.5% of Republicans . In 2022 at the same point, the rates were 8.6% for Democrats and 7.2% for Republicans .</p> <p>New Jersey shows a similar split. On Friday, Republicans cast 20,564 in-person early votes, down 26.5% from the same day in 2025, while Democrats cast 33,803 . Counting mail ballots reported through Thursday, Democrats led Republicans by 353,045 votes .</p> <p>There is a caveat. Those figures reflect party registration, not votes for individual candidates . Some Democrats who would otherwise vote on Election Day may simply be voting early, and the reverse may be true for Republicans .</p> <h2>The receipts</h2> <p>Last week, Gruters made turnout the party&#39;s central hope. He said Republicans have a path to win if they turn out their voters, and he called President Donald Trump a turnout machine . He also said he never thought he would see Texas as close as it is .</p> <blockquote><p>The president is a turnout machine. That&#39;s what he&#39;s done.</p><p>&mdash; Joe Gruters, chair, Republican National Committee</p></blockquote> <p>Texas Democratic Party Chair Kendall Scudder, appearing alongside Gruters, recounted his own early doubts about whether Texas could ever turn blue, and said the state will not be won overnight .</p> <p>Republicans are not unanimous in their confidence. Sen. Thom Tillis, a retiring North Carolina Republican, told Politico he is predicting a shellacking for his party and said Election Day will amount to a whoop-ass for the GOP . He also cautioned against denying measurable facts .</p> <h2>What happens next</h2> <p>Polls close Tuesday, November 3. The RNC says Trump will hold telephone rallies in 19 states during the final 72 hours .</p> <p>Emerson College Polling and CNN/SSRS both show Democrats leading Republicans by 10 points nationally . Decision Desk HQ, a partner of The Hill, projects an 83% chance of Democratic control of the House and a 62% chance of a Democratic Senate win .</p> <p>That matters because the party in power is now openly counting on a late surge. Early voting can&#39;t settle the outcome. But the head of the Republican Party&#39;s national committee has said out loud that his side has a gap to close in two days.</p> <p><em>Read the original, with every source linked, at <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/story/rnc-chair-gruters-says-republicans-have-a-turnout-problem-as-democrats-lead-early">thegopfiles.com</a>. Republished under The GOP Files' <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/republish">free republishing terms</a>.</em></p> <img src="https://thegopfiles.com/api/rp/rnc-chair-gruters-says-republicans-have-a-turnout-problem-as-democrats-lead-early.gif" alt="" width="1" height="1" style="border:0;width:1px;height:1px">

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Sources

1. UA.NEWS (republishing The Hill), “RNC chair Gruters acknowledges Republican turnout problem” (2026-11-01). ua.news/en/world/golova-rnc-gruters-viznav-problemu-z-iavkoi
2. The Assembly NC, “Democrats Are Trouncing Republicans In Early Voting” (2026-10-20). theassemblync.com/news/politics/early-voting-turnout-north-c
3. New Jersey Globe, “Democrats widen early voting lead as Republican turnout drops sharply on Friday” (2026-10-31). newjerseyglobe.com/campaigns/democrats-widen-early-voting-le
4. Fox 7 Austin, “Election 2026: Top political party leaders speak on polls, voter surges” (2026-10-27). fox7austin.com/news/election-2026-top-political-party-leader

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