RNC chair predicts GOP Senate wins in Alaska, Texas, Maine, Ohio and North Carolina

Republican National Committee (RNC) Chair Joe Gruters predicted Friday evening that his party will win Senate races in Maine, Texas, Ohio and Alaska. He also predicted a Republican win in North Carolina. He spoke to NewsNation's Blake Burman four days before the Nov. 3 election ¹.

Decision Desk HQ, The Hill's nonpartisan forecasting partner, tilts toward Democrats in Maine, Texas, Ohio and Alaska. It says North Carolina will likely go Democratic ¹.

On tapeFOX 4 Dallas-Fort Worth · Oct 27

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Admits the generic ballot looks bad

Burman pressed Gruters on polls asking voters which party they would back for Congress. That is called the generic ballot. Gruters said Republicans have well-known candidates with "common-sense mainstream" appeal, and he conceded the national numbers are weak ¹.

maybe the generic ballot, we’re not doing so hot

A final national poll from Emerson College Polling, released Friday, shows why. It found Democrats at 52% and Republicans at 42% on the congressional ballot. The survey of 1,000 likely voters ran Oct. 24-26 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points ².

From Channel GOPPeltola: Tariffs doubled Alaska air taxi's parts billMary Peltola · 142 plays · captioned, with the source named

The same poll put President Trump's approval at 37%, with 57% disapproving ². Emerson's executive director said about 5% of voters are undecided, and that most of them are independents ².

Decision Desk HQ puts Democrats' chances of winning the House at 82 percent. It puts their chances of taking the Senate at around 62 percent ¹.

Alaska certification and rally changes

Burman asked whether the RNC would try to stall certification of the Alaska election if Democrat Mary Peltola wins. Gruters said he would "follow the governor’s lead." Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy, a Republican, has responded to reports about a possible spoiler candidate in the race ¹.

Those reports say Peltola's campaign helped recruit a candidate with the same name as Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan. Peltola and her campaign have denied any involvement ¹. Alaska's top federal prosecutor said Friday that his office is part of a separate investigation into whether any laws were broken ¹.

Gruters also spoke about Trump's reversal on two rallies. The president had canceled events in Iowa and Kansas. On Friday he said both are back on and will be held in person Sunday ¹.

Gruters said the campaign is moving fast. "Listen, all these decisions are being made in real time," he said, and he added that "there may be some more changes" ¹.

Why it matters

Party chairs are paid to sound confident, so a prediction like this is not evidence. The test is Tuesday. Gruters is calling five seats for Republicans that forecasters tilt the other way, and he called the national mood "not doing so hot" himself ¹.

The vote itself comes Tuesday. Close Senate races could take days to call, so readers should not expect a final answer on election night.

The Record

1. Oct 24, 2026Emerson College Polling began its final national survey of 1,000 likely voters, which ran through Oct. 26 ².
2. Oct 30, 2026Emerson released the poll showing Democrats ahead 52% to 42% on the congressional ballot ².
3. Oct 30, 2026RNC Chair Joe Gruters predicted GOP Senate wins in Maine, Texas, Ohio, Alaska and North Carolina ¹.

Sources

1. The Hill, “RNC chair predicts GOP wins in Alaska, Texas, 3 other battlegrounds” (2026-10-30). thehill.com/homenews/campaign/6185743-rnc-chair-predicts-mid
2. Emerson College Polling, “October 2026 National Poll: Democrats Hold 10-Point Midterm Advantage” (2026-10-30). emersoncollegepolling.com/october-2026-national-poll-democra

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