Polls show Latino voters tilting to Democrats in Texas and Florida as midterms near

Both parties are fighting for Latino voters in the last week before the Nov. 3 midterms. Recent polling and race ratings show Republicans defending ground in places they won in 2024. Most of the figures below are from September polls and earlier.

What the polls show

A Cook Political Report and TelevisaUnivision survey of Hispanic likely voters in Texas put Trump's job approval at 33%. Trump carried Texas Hispanics by 10 points in 2024, Newsweek reported. ¹

On tapeFOX 4 Dallas-Fort Worth · Oct 24

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In the same survey, Democrat James Talarico led Republican Ken Paxton 63% to 30% among Hispanic voters in the Texas Senate race. Democrat Gina Hinojosa led Gov. Greg Abbott, a Republican, 60% to 33%. ¹

Cook also moved six House races toward Democrats on Sept. 25, three in Texas and three in Florida. One example is Texas' 15th District, which went from Lean Republican to Toss-Up. ¹

From Channel GOPTalarico: Elon Musk is trying to buy Texas Senate seatJames Talarico · 139 plays · captioned, with the source named

Florida is less clear-cut. UnidosUS, a Latino advocacy group, found Republican Ashley Moody leading Democrat Angie Nixon 40% to 32% among Hispanic voters in the Senate race, with more than a quarter undecided. ¹

Republicans acknowledge a problem

In a CBS News poll, 48% of Latinos wanted Democrats to control Congress, compared with 34% for Republicans. ² Texas primary turnout pointed the same way. Roughly three in four Latino primary voters chose the Democratic ballot, CBS reported in March. ³

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House Speaker Mike Johnson, a Republican, said then that “we are in a course correction mode right now.” ³ The White House said it had not changed course. Press secretary Karoline Leavitt said, “Nobody is changing the Administration's immigration enforcement agenda.” ³

we are in a course correction mode right now.

Democrats are not taking it for granted

Four Latino civic groups, UnidosUS, the LULAC Institute, Mi Familia en Acción and Latino Victory Foundation, have combined their voter outreach for the first time. They aim to reach more than 5 million Latino voters. ²

Newsweek also reported that nearly two-thirds of Texas Hispanic respondents said they would be less likely to back a candidate who supports Trump's deportation policy. The economy ranked as their top concern, about 2-to-1 over immigration. ¹

Caution is warranted. Republican strategist Mike Madrid described these voters as a swing group, not a settled Democratic bloc. ¹ Newsweek also reported that an NRCC poll in late April had Eric Flores leading Rep. Vicente Gonzalez in Texas' 34th District, and a mid-June Ragnar Research poll had him up 44-41. ¹

People, I think, broadly are failing to understand that the Latino vote is the largest swing vote in America

What happens next

Texas and Florida will show whether the polling holds. The Texas results in the 15th, 28th and 34th Districts and Florida's 27th are among the races Cook flagged. ¹ Latinos are more than 36 million eligible voters nationally, so turnout in these districts could help decide who controls the House. ²

The Record

1. Nov 5, 2024Trump carried Texas Hispanic voters by 10 points, Newsweek reported ¹
2. Mar 3, 2026Texas primary turnout topped 4.4 million, with roughly three in four Latino voters choosing the Democratic primary ³
3. Jul 30, 2026Four Latino civic groups announced a joint voter outreach effort at the UnidosUS conference in Austin ²
4. Sep 25, 2026Cook Political Report moved three Texas and three Florida House races toward Democrats ¹

Sources

1. Newsweek, “Trump and GOP see reversal with Latinos in 2 strongholds ahead of midterms” (2026-09-25). newsweek.com/trump-and-gop-see-reversal-with-latinos-in-2-st
2. CBS News, “Latino civic groups join forces ahead of the 2026 midterm elections” (2026-07-30). cbsnews.com/news/latino-organizations-voters-2026-midterm-el
3. CBS News, “Latino Texans fueled a surge in Democratic primary turnout” (2026-03-11). cbsnews.com/news/latino-texas-voters-democrats-primary-talar

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