Only 3 of 20 GOP Senate candidates back raising Social Security's tax cap, tally finds

The senators chosen this week will likely still be in office when Social Security's main trust fund is projected to run short. Senators elected this year would likely serve until at least 2033 ¹⁰, and the fund may be depleted in the last three months of 2032 ¹. If Congress does nothing, benefits could be cut by 22% ¹.

A tally published Oct. 27 shows how differently the two parties are approaching that deadline. Economist Jon Schwabish and co-author Zane Snyder Cox reviewed 41 candidates in 20 Senate races. They found that 20 have endorsed raising or eliminating the cap on income subject to Social Security taxes ².

That group includes 13 of 17 Democrats, all four independents and three of 20 Republicans ². Jon Husted, a Republican, was the only candidate to come out against the idea ². Most Republicans have not publicly taken a position ².

What the cut would look like

The trust fund is the program's reserve account. Even if it empties, payroll taxes would still cover about 78% of promised benefits, CNBC reported ¹. So the program would not stop paying, but checks could shrink for everyone already receiving them ⁵.

From Channel GOPTurek: Trump's bill costs 110,000 Iowans health careJosh Turek · 8 plays · captioned, with the source named

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a budget watchdog group, estimated an average loss of $500 a month nationally. Its state figures include $523 in Michigan, $504 in Iowa, $501 in North Carolina, $489 in Texas and $487 in Ohio ⁵. Those estimates assume a 24% cut, a bit larger than the Social Security trustees' current estimate of about 22% ⁵. The group also notes that the Congressional Budget Office projects an average 28% reduction from 2032 to 2036 ⁵.

The trustees, who oversee the program's finances, point mainly to lower projected birth rates and reduced immigration. They also cite lost revenue from the tax and spending law President Trump signed last summer, the Associated Press reported ⁶.

Why the cap is at the center of this fight

Social Security is funded by a 12.4% payroll tax, split evenly between workers and employers ³. This year, the tax applies only to the first $184,500 of earnings. That limit rises to $192,300 in 2027 ¹. Many proposals would leave the tax in place up to the cap, then apply it again above a higher level, such as $250,000 or $400,000 ¹.

Democrat Josh Turek of Iowa told a Sept. 9 town hall, "One of the best ways to keep Social Security solvent is we have to remove the cap" ¹. Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan wants to eliminate the cap, and Sherrod Brown in Ohio wants to raise it ¹. Dan Osborn, the independent running in Nebraska, wants to raise or remove it ¹.

Social Security is a promise, and I intend to keep it.

Not every Democrat has gone that far. Roy Cooper in North Carolina and Chris Pappas in New Hampshire say wealthier Americans should pay more but have not endorsed a specific change to the cap. Jon Ossoff in Georgia and Scott Colom in Mississippi have not addressed it directly ².

The Republican receipts

The three Republicans who back a change are Maine Sen. Susan Collins, Roger Marshall of Kansas and John Deaton, a challenger in Massachusetts ². Collins said in an October debate that "we simply are going to have to adjust the cap" ². She has not said whether it should be lifted, raised or applied above a higher threshold, the Bangor Daily News reported ⁷.

Husted has said he is "not on board" with the plan from Sens. Elizabeth Warren, a Massachusetts Democrat, and Bernie Moreno, an Ohio Republican, to eliminate the cap ².

Rep. Ashley Hinson, the Iowa Republican running against Turek, takes a firm line against cuts. Her record is more complicated ¹.

Anyone who's going to propose cuts to Social Security is going to get a 'hell, no' from me.

In 2020, Hinson was open to raising the retirement age, though she now says she opposes that change. In 2024, she voted on the House Appropriations Committee to cut Social Security Administration funding by up to $452 million ¹.

The commission answer

Another popular response is to hand the problem to a panel. Michigan Republican Mike Rogers supports a bipartisan committee and has described wanting to put lawmakers in a room and keep them there until they reach a real solution ¹. PolitiFact has reported that he said in the past he would support raising the retirement age, though he has not proposed that in this campaign ¹. Collins has suggested a panel of financial experts, possibly led by former Sen. Mitt Romney ⁷.

This is not only a Republican idea. Sen. Dick Durbin, an Illinois Democrat, and Sen. Bill Cassidy, a Louisiana Republican, are among the sponsors of the PROMISE Act, introduced in July. It would create an independent advisory committee and force an up-or-down vote on a plan to keep the program solvent for at least 50 years ⁶.

We were elected to solve problems — we owe it to our kids and grandkids to protect and strengthen this critical program.

That matters because a commission, by itself, does not say who pays. Past panels have also run into opposition from anti-tax groups. Americans for Tax Reform helped sink a 2024 House debt commission effort and has campaigned against the Warren-Moreno plan, the AP reported ⁶.

Democrats also point to what House Speaker Mike Johnson said before the trustees' report this year. He said Social Security needs to be "adjusted and fixed" and that Republicans would release a plan next year, without giving details ⁸. Sens. Warren, Tammy Duckworth and Richard Blumenthal wrote to Trump in June asking whether he would veto cuts. They cited a Congressional Budget Office finding that a 2024 Republican proposal to raise the full retirement age would cut benefits an average of 13% for people born after 1971 ⁸.

What voters say, and what the numbers leave out

A poll of 2,500 registered voters in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas found 81% more likely to support a candidate with a plan to prevent the cuts. Just 17% preferred one who promises not to touch the program ⁴. Support for reform rose from 49% to 91% once voters were told about the projected cuts ⁴.

The Peter G. Peterson Foundation released the survey, which was conducted Aug. 20 to 27 by a Democratic firm and a Republican firm. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.4 points ⁴. In the poll, 72% backed an additional 1% tax on income above $184,500, while borrowing to prevent the cuts drew just 29% ⁴.

The cap is also not a complete answer. A Tax Foundation economist estimated that eliminating it would raise $3.2 trillion from 2027 through 2036 but would at best close 67% of the long-run shortfall ⁹. The Schwabish tally has limits too: it covers 20 of this year's 35 Senate contests, and having no stated position is not the same as favoring cuts ¹².

The pattern is still clear. Most Democrats in these races have named a source of money, while most Republicans have offered promises, a process or nothing specific on the cap. Voters will have to weigh that difference with the deadline about six years away ²⁶.

The Record

1. Jun 3, 2026The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget publishes state-by-state estimates, with an average monthly loss of $500 nationally at a 24% cut ⁵.
2. Jun 16, 2026Sens. Warren, Duckworth and Blumenthal write to President Trump asking whether he would veto cuts to Social Security, Medicare or Medicaid ⁸.
3. Jul 14, 2026A bipartisan group of senators introduces the PROMISE Act, which would force an up-or-down vote on a plan to keep Social Security solvent for at least 50 years ⁶.
4. Sep 16, 2026The Peterson Foundation releases a five-state poll finding 81% of voters more likely to back a candidate with a plan to prevent the cuts ⁴.
5. Oct 27, 2026A tally of 41 Senate candidates finds 20 back raising or eliminating the cap, including 13 of 17 Democrats and three of 20 Republicans ².

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<h2>Only 3 of 20 GOP Senate candidates back raising Social Security&#39;s tax cap, tally finds</h2> <p><em>By The GOP Files Kitchen-Table Desk. This article first appeared on <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/story/only-3-of-20-gop-senate-candidates-back-raising-social-security-s-tax-cap-tally">The GOP Files</a> on Sunday, November 1, 2026.</em></p> <p>The senators chosen this week will likely still be in office when Social Security&#39;s main trust fund is projected to run short. Senators elected this year would likely serve until at least 2033 , and the fund may be depleted in the last three months of 2032 . If Congress does nothing, benefits could be cut by 22% .</p> <p>A tally published Oct. 27 shows how differently the two parties are approaching that deadline. Economist Jon Schwabish and co-author Zane Snyder Cox reviewed 41 candidates in 20 Senate races. They found that 20 have endorsed raising or eliminating the cap on income subject to Social Security taxes .</p> <p>That group includes 13 of 17 Democrats, all four independents and three of 20 Republicans . Jon Husted, a Republican, was the only candidate to come out against the idea . Most Republicans have not publicly taken a position .</p> <h2>What the cut would look like</h2> <p>The trust fund is the program&#39;s reserve account. Even if it empties, payroll taxes would still cover about 78% of promised benefits, CNBC reported . So the program would not stop paying, but checks could shrink for everyone already receiving them .</p> <p>The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a budget watchdog group, estimated an average loss of $500 a month nationally. Its state figures include $523 in Michigan, $504 in Iowa, $501 in North Carolina, $489 in Texas and $487 in Ohio . Those estimates assume a 24% cut, a bit larger than the Social Security trustees&#39; current estimate of about 22% . The group also notes that the Congressional Budget Office projects an average 28% reduction from 2032 to 2036 .</p> <p>The trustees, who oversee the program&#39;s finances, point mainly to lower projected birth rates and reduced immigration. They also cite lost revenue from the tax and spending law President Trump signed last summer, the Associated Press reported .</p> <h2>Why the cap is at the center of this fight</h2> <p>Social Security is funded by a 12.4% payroll tax, split evenly between workers and employers . This year, the tax applies only to the first $184,500 of earnings. That limit rises to $192,300 in 2027 . Many proposals would leave the tax in place up to the cap, then apply it again above a higher level, such as $250,000 or $400,000 .</p> <p>Democrat Josh Turek of Iowa told a Sept. 9 town hall, &quot;One of the best ways to keep Social Security solvent is we have to remove the cap&quot; . Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan wants to eliminate the cap, and Sherrod Brown in Ohio wants to raise it . Dan Osborn, the independent running in Nebraska, wants to raise or remove it .</p> <blockquote><p>Social Security is a promise, and I intend to keep it.</p><p>&mdash; Troy Jackson, U.S. Senate candidate and former Maine Senate president, D-Maine</p></blockquote> <p>Not every Democrat has gone that far. Roy Cooper in North Carolina and Chris Pappas in New Hampshire say wealthier Americans should pay more but have not endorsed a specific change to the cap. Jon Ossoff in Georgia and Scott Colom in Mississippi have not addressed it directly .</p> <h2>The Republican receipts</h2> <p>The three Republicans who back a change are Maine Sen. Susan Collins, Roger Marshall of Kansas and John Deaton, a challenger in Massachusetts . Collins said in an October debate that &quot;we simply are going to have to adjust the cap&quot; . She has not said whether it should be lifted, raised or applied above a higher threshold, the Bangor Daily News reported .</p> <p>Husted has said he is &quot;not on board&quot; with the plan from Sens. Elizabeth Warren, a Massachusetts Democrat, and Bernie Moreno, an Ohio Republican, to eliminate the cap .</p> <p>Rep. Ashley Hinson, the Iowa Republican running against Turek, takes a firm line against cuts. Her record is more complicated .</p> <blockquote><p>Anyone who&#39;s going to propose cuts to Social Security is going to get a &#39;hell, no&#39; from me.</p><p>&mdash; Ashley Hinson, U.S. representative and Senate candidate, R-Iowa</p></blockquote> <p>In 2020, Hinson was open to raising the retirement age, though she now says she opposes that change. In 2024, she voted on the House Appropriations Committee to cut Social Security Administration funding by up to $452 million .</p> <h2>The commission answer</h2> <p>Another popular response is to hand the problem to a panel. Michigan Republican Mike Rogers supports a bipartisan committee and has described wanting to put lawmakers in a room and keep them there until they reach a real solution . PolitiFact has reported that he said in the past he would support raising the retirement age, though he has not proposed that in this campaign . Collins has suggested a panel of financial experts, possibly led by former Sen. Mitt Romney .</p> <p>This is not only a Republican idea. Sen. Dick Durbin, an Illinois Democrat, and Sen. Bill Cassidy, a Louisiana Republican, are among the sponsors of the PROMISE Act, introduced in July. It would create an independent advisory committee and force an up-or-down vote on a plan to keep the program solvent for at least 50 years .</p> <blockquote><p>We were elected to solve problems — we owe it to our kids and grandkids to protect and strengthen this critical program.</p><p>&mdash; Dick Durbin, U.S. senator, D-Ill.</p></blockquote> <p>That matters because a commission, by itself, does not say who pays. Past panels have also run into opposition from anti-tax groups. Americans for Tax Reform helped sink a 2024 House debt commission effort and has campaigned against the Warren-Moreno plan, the AP reported .</p> <p>Democrats also point to what House Speaker Mike Johnson said before the trustees&#39; report this year. He said Social Security needs to be &quot;adjusted and fixed&quot; and that Republicans would release a plan next year, without giving details . Sens. Warren, Tammy Duckworth and Richard Blumenthal wrote to Trump in June asking whether he would veto cuts. They cited a Congressional Budget Office finding that a 2024 Republican proposal to raise the full retirement age would cut benefits an average of 13% for people born after 1971 .</p> <h2>What voters say, and what the numbers leave out</h2> <p>A poll of 2,500 registered voters in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas found 81% more likely to support a candidate with a plan to prevent the cuts. Just 17% preferred one who promises not to touch the program . Support for reform rose from 49% to 91% once voters were told about the projected cuts .</p> <p>The Peter G. Peterson Foundation released the survey, which was conducted Aug. 20 to 27 by a Democratic firm and a Republican firm. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.4 points . In the poll, 72% backed an additional 1% tax on income above $184,500, while borrowing to prevent the cuts drew just 29% .</p> <p>The cap is also not a complete answer. A Tax Foundation economist estimated that eliminating it would raise $3.2 trillion from 2027 through 2036 but would at best close 67% of the long-run shortfall . The Schwabish tally has limits too: it covers 20 of this year&#39;s 35 Senate contests, and having no stated position is not the same as favoring cuts .</p> <p>The pattern is still clear. Most Democrats in these races have named a source of money, while most Republicans have offered promises, a process or nothing specific on the cap. Voters will have to weigh that difference with the deadline about six years away .</p> <p><em>Read the original, with every source linked, at <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/story/only-3-of-20-gop-senate-candidates-back-raising-social-security-s-tax-cap-tally">thegopfiles.com</a>. Republished under The GOP Files' <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/republish">free republishing terms</a>.</em></p> <img src="https://thegopfiles.com/api/rp/only-3-of-20-gop-senate-candidates-back-raising-social-security-s-tax-cap-tally.gif" alt="" width="1" height="1" style="border:0;width:1px;height:1px">

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Sources

1. CNBC, “These Senate races may help determine the fate of Social Security” (2026-11-01). cnbc.com/2026/11/01/social-security-senate-races.html
2. PolicyViz, “Where 2026 Senate Candidates Stand on Social Security's Taxable Maximum” (2026-10-27). policyviz.com/2026/10/27/where-2026-senate-candidates-stand-
3. CBS News, “Social Security trust fund and the midterm elections” (2026-10-29). cbsnews.com/news/social-security-trust-fund-midterm-election
4. Peter G. Peterson Foundation, “Social Security is Critical Issue for Voters in Key US Senate Races” (2026-09-16). pgpf.org/press/social-security-is-critical-issue-for-voters-
5. Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, “No State Spared: Mapping the Impact of Social Security's Insolvency” (2026-06-03). crfb.org/nostatespared
6. AP via Boston.com, “Bipartisan group of senators introduces legislation to avert looming Social Security shortfall” (2026-07-14). boston.com/news/politics/2026/07/14/bipartisan-group-of-sena
7. Bangor Daily News via CPA Practice Advisor, “Susan Collins Floats Mitt Romney to Chart a Long-Term Fix for Social Security” (2026-10-15). cpapracticeadvisor.com/2026/10/15/susan-collins-floats-mitt-
8. Common Dreams via Raw Story, “Senators press Trump on secret GOP plan to cut Social Security after midterms” (2026-06-16). rawstory.com/senators-warn-trump-and-gop-are-considering-rai
9. Tax Foundation, “Save Social Security payroll tax cap proposal analysis” (2026-06-24). taxfoundation.org/blog/save-social-security-payroll-tax-cap-
10. National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare, “Social Security is on the ballot in 2026” (2026-06-08). ncpssm.org/documents/latest-news/social-security-is-on-the-b

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