Final NBC poll has Democrats up 52% to 45% for Congress as Trump's disapproval hits 60%

The final NBC News poll before Election Day shows Democrats with a clear lead in the fight for Congress. Of the registered voters surveyed, 52% want Democrats to control Congress and 45% want Republicans, with 3% undecided ³. Independents favor Democrats by 21 points ³.

NBC surveyed 1,000 registered voters from Oct. 28 to 30. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 points ³.

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Trump's numbers

President Donald Trump's approval rating is 40%, and 60% disapprove. NBC says that is the highest disapproval it has recorded across his two terms ³. In states Trump won in 2024, 53% disapprove and 47% approve ³.

Seventy percent say the country is on the wrong track, up 9 points in a year. About three in four are dissatisfied with the economy ³. And 51% are dissatisfied with their own finances. NBC says that is the first time in 30 years of its polling that dissatisfaction has outnumbered satisfaction ³.

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The Trump presidency can be summarized as the promise of two years ago and the peril of two days from now.

Trump has asked voters to treat this election as a vote on him. He has told them to "pretend I'm on the ballot" ¹. The president's party has lost House seats in 18 of the past 20 midterm elections going back to 1946 ¹.

A warning for Democrats

The poll is not all good news for Democrats. Only 29% of voters view the Democratic Party positively, compared with 38% for the Republican Party ³. About half of voters view each party negatively ³.

Democrats are in total control of the 2026 issue agenda.

Other polls point the same way. The RealClearPolling average has Democrats at 51.5% and Republicans at 43.1% ². An Emerson College poll taken Oct. 24 to 26 had Democrats up 10 points ².

The House is likelier than the Senate

Pollster Natalie Jackson told Al Jazeera: "We can be fairly confident that Democrats will win the House majority, but the Senate picture is unclear." ² Republicans hold the Senate 53 to 47, and Democrats need to gain four seats to win a majority ¹.

Polls can miss. Republican strategist Doug Heye said "A lot of Republicans just don't want to answer calls from pollsters" ². Reuters has estimated that only about 40 to 50 House races are truly competitive ¹.

That matters because a Democratic House could demand documents and testimony from the administration and launch investigations ¹. A Democratic Senate could block or delay Trump's appointments ¹. Polls close Tuesday.

The Record

1. Nov 5, 1946The president's party has lost House seats in 18 of the 20 midterm elections since 1946 ¹.
2. Oct 30, 2026NBC News finishes polling 1,000 registered voters, begun Oct. 28 ³.
3. Nov 1, 2026NBC releases its final poll: Democrats 52%, Republicans 45% for control of Congress ³.

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<h2>Final NBC poll has Democrats up 52% to 45% for Congress as Trump&#39;s disapproval hits 60%</h2> <p><em>By The GOP Files Campaign Desk. This article first appeared on <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/story/final-nbc-poll-has-democrats-up-52-to-45-for-congress-as-trump-s-disapproval-hits">The GOP Files</a> on Sunday, November 1, 2026.</em></p> <p>The final NBC News poll before Election Day shows Democrats with a clear lead in the fight for Congress. Of the registered voters surveyed, 52% want Democrats to control Congress and 45% want Republicans, with 3% undecided . Independents favor Democrats by 21 points .</p> <p>NBC surveyed 1,000 registered voters from Oct. 28 to 30. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 points .</p> <h2>Trump&#39;s numbers</h2> <p>President Donald Trump&#39;s approval rating is 40%, and 60% disapprove. NBC says that is the highest disapproval it has recorded across his two terms . In states Trump won in 2024, 53% disapprove and 47% approve .</p> <p>Seventy percent say the country is on the wrong track, up 9 points in a year. About three in four are dissatisfied with the economy . And 51% are dissatisfied with their own finances. NBC says that is the first time in 30 years of its polling that dissatisfaction has outnumbered satisfaction .</p> <blockquote><p>The Trump presidency can be summarized as the promise of two years ago and the peril of two days from now.</p><p>&mdash; Jeff Horwitt, Democratic pollster, Hart Research Associates</p></blockquote> <p>Trump has asked voters to treat this election as a vote on him. He has told them to &quot;pretend I&#39;m on the ballot&quot; . The president&#39;s party has lost House seats in 18 of the past 20 midterm elections going back to 1946 .</p> <h2>A warning for Democrats</h2> <p>The poll is not all good news for Democrats. Only 29% of voters view the Democratic Party positively, compared with 38% for the Republican Party . About half of voters view each party negatively .</p> <blockquote><p>Democrats are in total control of the 2026 issue agenda.</p><p>&mdash; Bill McInturff, Republican pollster, Public Opinion Strategies</p></blockquote> <p>Other polls point the same way. The RealClearPolling average has Democrats at 51.5% and Republicans at 43.1% . An Emerson College poll taken Oct. 24 to 26 had Democrats up 10 points .</p> <h2>The House is likelier than the Senate</h2> <p>Pollster Natalie Jackson told Al Jazeera: &quot;We can be fairly confident that Democrats will win the House majority, but the Senate picture is unclear.&quot; Republicans hold the Senate 53 to 47, and Democrats need to gain four seats to win a majority .</p> <p>Polls can miss. Republican strategist Doug Heye said &quot;A lot of Republicans just don&#39;t want to answer calls from pollsters&quot; . Reuters has estimated that only about 40 to 50 House races are truly competitive .</p> <p>That matters because a Democratic House could demand documents and testimony from the administration and launch investigations . A Democratic Senate could block or delay Trump&#39;s appointments . Polls close Tuesday.</p> <p><em>Read the original, with every source linked, at <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/story/final-nbc-poll-has-democrats-up-52-to-45-for-congress-as-trump-s-disapproval-hits">thegopfiles.com</a>. Republished under The GOP Files' <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/republish">free republishing terms</a>.</em></p> <img src="https://thegopfiles.com/api/rp/final-nbc-poll-has-democrats-up-52-to-45-for-congress-as-trump-s-disapproval-hits.gif" alt="" width="1" height="1" style="border:0;width:1px;height:1px">

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Sources

1. The Guardian, “What are the races to watch in the US midterm elections and why do they matter?” (2026-11-01). theguardian.com/us-news/2026/oct/26/what-are-midterm-electio
2. Al Jazeera, “US midterms: 2 days to go, what polls say as Trump, El-Sayed hit the trail” (2026-11-01). aljazeera.com/news/2026/11/1/us-midterms-2-days-to-go-what-p
3. NBC News, “Poll: Voters demand change and a check on Trump, fueling a steep Democratic midterm advantage” (2026-11-01). nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/poll-voters-demand-change

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