Midterms 2026 · Report · File No. 261101-223
Final polls show Democrats leading the contest for Congress
Emerson College found Democrats ahead 52% to 42% among likely voters. The NPR/PBS News/Marist poll found an 8-point Democratic lead among likely voters and 10 points among registered voters, and Trump's approval is weak.
Every quote in this story (2) was matched word for word against its source. How we work
Two national polls released in the last week of the campaign show Democrats leading the contest for Congress. The midterm election is Tuesday, Nov. 3.
Emerson College Polling surveyed 1,000 likely voters from Oct. 24 to 26. It found the generic Democratic candidate ahead of the generic Republican, 52% to 42% 1. A "generic" question asks about the party, not a named candidate. The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 3 points 1.
The NPR/PBS News/Marist poll was taken Oct. 19 and 20. Among likely voters, Democrats led by 8 points. Among registered voters, the lead was 10 points 2. Marist applied a likely-voter screen for the first time this cycle 2. A screen tries to filter out people who probably won't vote.
Republicans have not moved
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said the Republican number has held steady. Republicans are at 42%, which he said is "exactly where they started when tracking began 15 months ago" 1.
From Channel GOPTrump on pardoning officials: "I'd be allowed toDonald Trump · 182 plays · captioned, with the source named
Democrats' congressional ceiling could be higher than the poll reports.
Emerson found Trump's approval at 37%, with 57% disapproving, among likely voters 1. Marist found 40% approval and 59% disapproval among likely voters 2. Among registered voters, Marist put Trump at 38% approve and 61% disapprove 2.
What is driving the vote
Emerson asked which issue matters most. Cost of living led at 34%, followed by fighting government corruption at 28% 1. Lowering taxes drew 10%, immigration 8%, ending the Iran war 6% and health care 6% 1.
In the Marist poll, 44% of likely voters said their vote is mainly a vote against Trump. Another 21% said it is mainly a vote for him 2. Also, 71% of Democratic likely voters called themselves "very enthusiastic," compared with 61% of Republicans 2.
Chris Agan, 43, a Democrat in Tyler, Texas, told NPR how the year feels to him 2.
This year is different.
Why it is not a sure thing
Polls measure opinion, not results, and they can miss. NPR noted that Democrats' lead on this question averaged 7 points in 2018 and 12 points in 2006. In both of those years, Democrats won the House 2. NPR also reported that both rounds of redistricting have tilted seats toward Republicans 2. Redistricting is the redrawing of district lines.
Kimball said Democrats' ceiling could be higher than his poll shows 1. Marist found that three-quarters of likely voters are confident their state and local elections will be fair and accurate 2.
What happens next is simple. Polls close on Tuesday, and the results will show whether these leads hold. Those leads are 10 points in the Emerson poll and 8 in the Marist likely-voter result.
The Record
Republish this story on your site or in your newsletter
Any site, blog or newsletter may run this story free of charge. Keep the credit line and its link to the original, do not sell it, and edit only for length or house style (the full terms). Photos carry their own licenses, noted under each photo on this page, so use the text alone unless a credit says otherwise.
Paste it into your editor's HTML view. The one-pixel image at the end tells our newsroom the story ran; it stores no reader data.
Sources
- Emerson College Polling, “October 2026 National Poll: Democrats Hold 10-Point Midterm Advantage” (2026-10-30). emersoncollegepolling.com/october-2026-national-poll-democra
- NPR (via OPB), “Democrats still poised to make gains, but poll shows warning signs for just how many” (2026-10-27). opb.org/article/2026/10/27/new-poll-shows-democrats-have-mid
Found an error? Tell the newsroom. Corrections are noted at the top of the story.
More from the files
NPR poll: Democrats lead House vote 52% to 41% as Trump approval sits at 34%
A Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll shared with NPR finds voters want Congress to check President Trump and trust Democrats more on their top issues. The survey comes less than two weeks before the November 3 election.
Trump's net approval about 21.7 to 27 points underwater in four trackers before Tuesday
Four national polling averages put President Donald Trump's disapproval near 60 percent in the final days before the midterms, and a state tracker shows him negative in all six swing Senate states. That is the backdrop Republicans carry into Tuesday's vote for control of Congress.
Emerson poll: Democrats lead GOP 52% to 42% for Congress four days before midterms
A new national poll finds Democrats 10 points ahead on the generic congressional ballot, with President Trump's approval at 37%. Polls can miss, but the result fits a pattern that has held for 15 months.
Delivered free to your door*
The Morning Edition
One short email at 7 a.m. Eastern: the day's top files, one clip worth your time, and the race to watch. Plain English, large type, no clutter.
*Your inbox. Free. Unsubscribe with one click, any time.