Voters say they would rather elect a Democrat than a Republican to Congress by a double-digit margin, according to a new Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll shared with NPR. Among registered voters, Democrats lead 52% to 41%. Among likely voters, the lead is 54% to 42% 1.
The survey of 2,028 people was taken Oct. 13-19. Its margin of sampling error is 2.2 percentage points, so results could be about 2.2 points higher or lower 1. The poll's author says the Democratic lead is the biggest the series has recorded, and the Republican share among registered voters is the lowest it has measured 2.
Trump's approval and the issues
President Trump's job approval stands at 34%, with 62% disapproving and 50% strongly disapproving 1. That is near the lowest of his second term 1.
G. Elliott Morris, who runs the poll, said the president's numbers are sliding across the board.
Trump's ratings hit new lows on seven of the 10 issues we've tracked since May 2025, from jobs and trade to immigration and border security, and he's now underwater on every issue we ask about,
On immigration, the shift is large. In May 2025, voters trusted Republicans more than Democrats on immigration and deportations by an average of 15 points. Now they trust Democrats by a narrow one point 1. Republicans still hold a slim edge only on crime and public safety and on border security 1.
Asked which party they trust on their own top issue, voters picked Democrats 47% to 35%. That is the widest gap the poll has measured 1.
Voters want a check on the president
Only 25% said it was more important to elect a Congress that will help Trump pass his agenda. By contrast, 58% said it was more important to elect one that acts as a check and balance on him 1.
Two in five voters said their vote would mostly be a statement against Trump and his agenda. One in five said it would be a statement of support 1. A majority want Congress to roll back or check Trump on tariffs and trade, health care, foreign policy, elections and voting, government spending and social programs, immigration and deportations, and artificial intelligence 1.
Prices remain the top worry. Of those surveyed, 63% listed prices and inflation among their three most important problems, and 39% listed it first 1.
The poll also found some buyer's remorse. Nearly one in 10 people who said they voted in the 2024 presidential race regret their choice, including almost 15% of self-described Trump voters 1.
What happens next
Election Day is Nov. 3. NPR reports that both parties are spending heavily in House and Senate races reaching into conservative territory where Trump did well in 2024 1.
That matters because a poll is a snapshot, not a result. This one has a margin of error and was taken before the final two weeks of campaigning. Still, the pattern is consistent: voters are treating this election as a verdict on the president 1.
The Record
- Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll found voters trusted Republicans over Democrats on immigration and deportations by an average of 15 points 1.
- Fieldwork began for the poll of 2,028 respondents; it ran through Oct. 19 1.
- Poll shared with NPR shows Democrats ahead 52% to 41% among registered voters and Trump approval at 34% 12.
Sources
- NPR, “Poll: Voters want Congress to be a check on Trump, trust Democrats more on issues” (2026-10-21). npr.org/2026/10/21/nx-s1-6011179/poll-democrats-republicans-
- Strength In Numbers, “Poll: Democrats post their biggest generic-ballot lead yet, two weeks out” (2026-10-21). gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-10-21-october-strength-in-numbers-
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