President Donald Trump remains deeply unpopular with city voters. But his net approval rating among urban voters in Echelon Insights polling improved by 20 points between July and October, Newsweek reported Saturday 1.
The 20 points is not a 20-point rise in support. It is a 10-point increase in approval and a 10-point drop in disapproval 1. Trump gained in August, slipped three net points in September, then posted his best urban result of the four surveys in October 1.
What the national numbers show
Echelon's October survey questioned 1,010 likely voters from Oct. 15 to 19. It found Trump at 39% approval and 60% disapproval nationally, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 points 1. It also found a five-point Democratic lead on the generic ballot, which asks voters which party they would back for Congress 1.
A separate Reuters/Ipsos poll, released Oct. 19, put Trump's approval at 31%, the lowest of either of his terms. It found Democrats ahead 47% to 35% among registered voters 2.
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Why the city numbers matter
Democrats depend on big margins in major cities to win close statewide races 1. Daniel Schatz, a political scientist, said the figures suggest "an erosion of Democratic dominance, rather than an urban embrace of Trump." 1
He said Republicans could gain by trimming Democratic margins without coming close to winning a city. "In a close statewide contest, narrowing a large Democratic margin can be decisive," he said 1. He also warned that a Trump critic who stays home gives Democrats no protection 1.
an erosion of Democratic dominance, rather than an urban embrace of Trump.
Two races are named as examples. In Georgia, a 270toWin average of five recent polls had Republican Rick Jackson at 48.4% and Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms, the former Atlanta mayor, at 46.6% for governor 1. In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed faces Republican Mike Rogers for an open Senate seat 1.
Jason Cabel Roe, a Michigan Republican strategist, said Rogers has opened an office on Detroit's Avenue of Fashion. He said Democrats have historically needed more than 85% of the vote in Detroit 1.
Cautions about the poll
The urban result comes from a subgroup of a national poll, and Echelon's published results give no separate margin of error for it. That makes it less precise than the national figure 1. Schatz said a national poll can have a respectable overall sample but relatively few urban respondents 1.
Experts also disagreed on the cause. Costas Panagopoulos of Northeastern University said Trump started so low in cities that there was room to recover, and pointed to improvements in crime. He cautioned that federal policy may not deserve the credit 1.
Pew Research Center, in a Sept. 28 to Oct. 4 survey, found Democratic House candidates leading 51% to 24% among Hispanic registered voters and 70% to 7% among Black voters. But 25% of Hispanic voters and 23% of Black voters backed someone else or were unsure 1.
White House spokesman Davis Ingle said Trump had built "one of the most robust coalitions in political history with the MAGA movement." 1
What happens next
Election Day is Nov. 3. Newsweek notes that one urban result cannot prove any single metro area is changing, since statewide outcomes also depend on suburbs, rural turnout and the candidates 1. Whether the shift lasts depends on later polls and, in the end, on who votes 1.
The Record
- Pew finished a survey showing Democratic House candidates leading among Hispanic and Black voters, with many undecided 1.
- Reuters/Ipsos poll put Trump's approval at 31% and Democrats ahead 47% to 35% on the generic ballot 2.
- Newsweek reported Echelon's October poll showing Trump's urban net approval up 20 points since July 1.
Sources
- Newsweek, “Donald Trump's Approval Rating Quietly Shifts in America's Cities” (2026-10-24). newsweek.com/donald-trump-approval-rating-shifts-america-cit
- Reuters (via ThePrint), “Trump approval falls to record low of 31% as midterms near, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds” (2026-10-20). theprint.in/world/exclusive-trump-approval-falls-to-record-l
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