Democrats have national winds at their backs ten days before the Nov. 3 midterms. Gas prices are high and President Trump's approval rating is at a record low, according to The Hill 1. Yet Minnesota's open Senate race is closer than Democrats would like 1.
Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, a Democrat, holds a slim lead over Republican Michele Tafoya, a former sports reporter. According to The Hill, limited public polls show that lead has narrowed 1. The seat is open because Sen. Tina Smith, a Democrat, is retiring 1.
What the polls and forecasters show
A KSTP/SurveyUSA poll put Flanagan at 45% and Tafoya at 42%, with 9% undecided. The two were tied at 42% in September 2. A Mason-Dixon poll of 800 likely voters had Flanagan ahead 47% to 43% 2.
Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan race rater, moved the race from "likely" to "lean" Democratic. It cited Flanagan trailing Sen. Amy Klobuchar's polling, a statewide fraud scandal and Tafoya's strength as a recruit 1. Sabato's Crystal Ball, another forecaster, made a similar shift 2.
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Minnesota has not elected a Republican senator in nearly 25 years 1. Analyst Blois Olson said the race "could be so close we might have a recount" 1.
The fraud scandal
Flanagan's biggest weak spot is her nearly eight years serving under Gov. Tim Walz, a Democrat 1. Allegations of up to billions of dollars in fraud in Minnesota social service programs have engulfed his administration. Walz dropped his bid for a third term in January 1.
Tafoya has made the scandal central to her campaign. She asked, "Why has no one been fired?" 1 Flanagan's campaign says the governor, not the lieutenant governor, oversees state agencies. An official acknowledged more should have been done sooner 1.
The fraud thing — that it hangs over the state of Minnesota — certainly is a bit of a drag for Democrats, but at the same time, the Trump administration, I still think, is a bigger drag on the Republicans
Tafoya's own problems
Tafoya faces headwinds too. Prices for gas and fertilizer have risen during the war with Iran and a tariff war with Canada, The Hill reports. Trump's immigration crackdown in Minnesota earlier this year led to two shootings involving federal immigration agents 1.
She has been putting distance between herself and the president. Asked about Trump's endorsement at a debate, she said "There is one endorsement that I care about and that is the one that happens on Nov. 3." 1 A Flanagan campaign official said Tafoya "earned" that endorsement through past loyalty 1.
There is one endorsement that I care about and that is the one that happens on Nov. 3.
What happens next
National Democrats say they are confident. They note that national Republican groups have spent little on the race 1. A former state Democratic chair said the Trump administration is still "a bigger drag on the Republicans" than the fraud scandal is on Democrats 1.
Flanagan also faced a dispute this week over Phi Beta Kappa, an academic honor society. The Wall Street Journal reported she was not a member. The society later told The Hill and other outlets she was 1.
That matters because Democrats cannot treat any Senate seat as safe. A late slip in Minnesota would make the path to Senate control harder, and the Tuesday, Nov. 3 results will decide it 1.
The Record
- Gov. Tim Walz abandoned his bid for a third term amid fraud allegations in state social service programs (January, exact day not given) 1.
- The Hill reports Flanagan's slim lead over Tafoya has narrowed, and Cook Political Report rates the race lean Democratic 1.
- Election Day: Minnesota voters choose a successor to retiring Sen. Tina Smith 1.
Sources
- The Hill, “Why a blue wave might miss Minnesota's Senate race” (2026-10-24). thehill.com/homenews/campaign/6169517-minnesota-senate-flana
- Newsweek, “Republicans eye historic Minnesota Senate upset as Democrats slip” (2026-10-24). newsweek.com/republicans-eye-historic-minnesota-senate-upset
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