AARP warns a flat-rate COLA would shrink raises for 80% of Social Security recipients

Social Security checks will rise 3.6% in January. Days before Tuesday's election, AARP and its volunteers are warning about what could happen to raises like that one in the years ahead ¹²⁷.

On Saturday, an AARP Minnesota council member, Lisa Radosevich-Craig, wrote in the Duluth News Tribune that "Washington, D.C., insiders are proposing a flat-rate COLA" ¹. COLA stands for cost-of-living adjustment, the yearly raise meant to help benefits keep up with prices. More than 1.1 million Minnesotans receive Social Security, she noted ¹.

For 2027, the average retired worker's monthly check is estimated to rise about $75, from $2,095 to $2,170. The increase starts with December benefits, which are paid in January ⁷.

What a flat-rate raise would do

Today, the COLA percentage is applied to each person's own benefit. Under a flat-rate plan, that percentage would be applied to the benefit of someone at the 20th percentile, meaning a person whose check is larger than only about one in five others. Everyone would then get that same dollar increase, so 80% of beneficiaries would get a smaller raise than they do now, according to AARP's Public Policy Institute ³.

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AARP ran the numbers for 2026. The average retired worker would have received a $34.20 monthly raise instead of $57.90, a loss of about $285 over the year ³.

AARP says the gap would grow with age. In one of its hypothetical cases, a woman who retired at 65 in 1998 would be getting $18,000 a year at age 93 instead of $22,600. AARP says the 2026 check could cover less than three-quarters of what the 1998 check covered ³. These are AARP's own calculations, and the group opposes the idea ³.

The argument for changing the raise

AARP names the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget as a source of these ideas ². It argues that something has to give, because a 22% benefit cut in 2032 could wipe out the previous nine years of COLAs all at once ⁵.

The committee, citing Urban Institute estimates, says the flat-rate version would close about half of the program's 75-year shortfall under 2025 assumptions, and likely less under the newer 2026 projections. On its own, it would delay insolvency by two years ⁴.

It also says the burden would fall mostly at the top. By 2065, benefits would be 3% lower for the bottom fifth of lifetime earners and 19% lower for the top fifth, compared with scheduled benefits ⁴. And because the program could not pay everything scheduled without a fix, the lowest-income retirees would actually collect 13% to 14% more than they otherwise would ⁴.

The group also offers a narrower option: a dollar cap on raises for higher-income retirees. This year's cap could be roughly $1,200, leaving about three-quarters of beneficiaries untouched ⁵. By its own account, a cap would do little to delay insolvency if used alone ⁶.

Where the two parties stand

We did not find a Republican leader publicly endorsing the flat-rate plan. The party's record on the COLA does include a similar idea, though. House Republicans have proposed a slower-growing COLA, and a Forbes report cites the Republican Study Committee's fiscal year 2020 budget in that context. The idea is to use the chained Consumer Price Index, an inflation measure that assumes shoppers switch to cheaper goods and generally grows more slowly. It is sometimes called the cat-food CPI ⁸. A raise 0.3 percentage point lower each year would reduce benefits by about 6% after 20 years ⁸.

The study committee's January 2026 budget announcement said it would balance the books without cutting Social Security or Medicare benefits or raising the Social Security retirement age ¹¹.

Other Republicans have said less about specifics. In June, House Speaker Mike Johnson said on a radio show that entitlement programs, including Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security, need to be adjusted and fixed, according to Common Dreams, a progressive news site. He said a new Social Security plan would come next year but gave no details ¹². In Texas, Senate candidate Ken Paxton was recorded at a private fundraiser calling for cuts to mandatory spending, the budget category that includes Social Security, according to the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare, an advocacy group ¹⁵.

In Ohio, Republican Sen. Jon Husted calls Social Security a sacred commitment. But he rejected a proposal from Sens. Bernie Moreno and Elizabeth Warren that would raise taxes on high earners, and he did not say what he would do instead, the Ohio Capital Journal reported Friday ⁹.

This rifle approach with a giant tax increase is not the way I'd go about it.

Democrats are offering a different formula and a different funding source. Democratic proposals would replace today's inflation measure with the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly, which better reflects older households' spending on medical care and housing. Benefits would then be higher than under current law ⁸.

Rep. John Larson of Connecticut, the top Democrat on the House Social Security Subcommittee, backs the Social Security 2100 Act. It would raise benefits and extend solvency by eliminating the cap on income subject to the payroll tax and adding a net investment income tax on income over $400,000 ¹⁰. Today, the 6.2% tax applies only to about the first $184,000 of income ⁹. Sherrod Brown, Husted's Democratic opponent, also wants to change that ceiling so high earners pay more ⁹.

Americans are depending on their Congress to enhance benefits—not cut them—and Democrats are ready to act.

Why it matters on Tuesday

That matters because the deadline falls inside the coming Senate term. Without new law, continuing revenue would cover about 78% of scheduled retirement and survivor benefits once reserves run out in 2032, and senators elected this week will serve until January 2033 ⁸. In Ohio, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates the average cut at $487 a month ⁹.

Social Security's future is on the ballot this November, and that includes the size of annual COLA adjustments

Voters appear to want action, and they are skeptical of smaller raises. In an August poll commissioned by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, 85% of likely Ohio voters said fixing Social Security is important, including 88% of Republicans, 81% of Democrats and 79% of independents ⁹. In an AARP survey of 1,023 adults age 50 and over, taken Sept. 17-21, 76% said a projected 3.5% COLA would not keep up with rising prices ¹³.

The pattern is that candidates who oppose tax increases on high earners have not said what they would do about the shortfall. Until they do, the raise itself remains one of the options on the table.

The Record

1. Jan 7, 2026The Republican Study Committee announces a budget it says balances the books without cutting Social Security benefits or raising the retirement age ¹¹.
2. Jun 9, 2026A Common Dreams report posted by Rep. Larson's office says Speaker Johnson told a radio show that entitlement programs need to be adjusted and fixed, with a Social Security plan to come next year ¹².
3. Jul 21, 2026The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget publishes its estimates of a flat-rate COLA, saying it would close about half of the 75-year shortfall under 2025 assumptions ⁴.
4. Aug 19, 2026AARP's Public Policy Institute publishes an analysis finding a flat-rate COLA would give 80% of beneficiaries smaller raises ³.
5. Oct 14, 2026The Social Security Administration announces a 3.6% COLA for 2027 ⁷.

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<h2>AARP warns a flat-rate COLA would shrink raises for 80% of Social Security recipients</h2> <p><em>By The GOP Files Kitchen-Table Desk. This article first appeared on <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/story/aarp-warns-a-flat-rate-cola-would-shrink-raises-for-80-of-social-security-recipients">The GOP Files</a> on Sunday, November 1, 2026.</em></p> <p>Social Security checks will rise 3.6% in January. Days before Tuesday&#39;s election, AARP and its volunteers are warning about what could happen to raises like that one in the years ahead .</p> <p>On Saturday, an AARP Minnesota council member, Lisa Radosevich-Craig, wrote in the Duluth News Tribune that &quot;Washington, D.C., insiders are proposing a flat-rate COLA&quot; . COLA stands for cost-of-living adjustment, the yearly raise meant to help benefits keep up with prices. More than 1.1 million Minnesotans receive Social Security, she noted .</p> <p>For 2027, the average retired worker&#39;s monthly check is estimated to rise about $75, from $2,095 to $2,170. The increase starts with December benefits, which are paid in January .</p> <h2>What a flat-rate raise would do</h2> <p>Today, the COLA percentage is applied to each person&#39;s own benefit. Under a flat-rate plan, that percentage would be applied to the benefit of someone at the 20th percentile, meaning a person whose check is larger than only about one in five others. Everyone would then get that same dollar increase, so 80% of beneficiaries would get a smaller raise than they do now, according to AARP&#39;s Public Policy Institute .</p> <p>AARP ran the numbers for 2026. The average retired worker would have received a $34.20 monthly raise instead of $57.90, a loss of about $285 over the year .</p> <p>AARP says the gap would grow with age. In one of its hypothetical cases, a woman who retired at 65 in 1998 would be getting $18,000 a year at age 93 instead of $22,600. AARP says the 2026 check could cover less than three-quarters of what the 1998 check covered . These are AARP&#39;s own calculations, and the group opposes the idea .</p> <h2>The argument for changing the raise</h2> <p>AARP names the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget as a source of these ideas . It argues that something has to give, because a 22% benefit cut in 2032 could wipe out the previous nine years of COLAs all at once .</p> <p>The committee, citing Urban Institute estimates, says the flat-rate version would close about half of the program&#39;s 75-year shortfall under 2025 assumptions, and likely less under the newer 2026 projections. On its own, it would delay insolvency by two years .</p> <p>It also says the burden would fall mostly at the top. By 2065, benefits would be 3% lower for the bottom fifth of lifetime earners and 19% lower for the top fifth, compared with scheduled benefits . And because the program could not pay everything scheduled without a fix, the lowest-income retirees would actually collect 13% to 14% more than they otherwise would .</p> <p>The group also offers a narrower option: a dollar cap on raises for higher-income retirees. This year&#39;s cap could be roughly $1,200, leaving about three-quarters of beneficiaries untouched . By its own account, a cap would do little to delay insolvency if used alone .</p> <h2>Where the two parties stand</h2> <p>We did not find a Republican leader publicly endorsing the flat-rate plan. The party&#39;s record on the COLA does include a similar idea, though. House Republicans have proposed a slower-growing COLA, and a Forbes report cites the Republican Study Committee&#39;s fiscal year 2020 budget in that context. The idea is to use the chained Consumer Price Index, an inflation measure that assumes shoppers switch to cheaper goods and generally grows more slowly. It is sometimes called the cat-food CPI . A raise 0.3 percentage point lower each year would reduce benefits by about 6% after 20 years .</p> <p>The study committee&#39;s January 2026 budget announcement said it would balance the books without cutting Social Security or Medicare benefits or raising the Social Security retirement age .</p> <p>Other Republicans have said less about specifics. In June, House Speaker Mike Johnson said on a radio show that entitlement programs, including Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security, need to be adjusted and fixed, according to Common Dreams, a progressive news site. He said a new Social Security plan would come next year but gave no details . In Texas, Senate candidate Ken Paxton was recorded at a private fundraiser calling for cuts to mandatory spending, the budget category that includes Social Security, according to the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare, an advocacy group .</p> <p>In Ohio, Republican Sen. Jon Husted calls Social Security a sacred commitment. But he rejected a proposal from Sens. Bernie Moreno and Elizabeth Warren that would raise taxes on high earners, and he did not say what he would do instead, the Ohio Capital Journal reported Friday .</p> <blockquote><p>This rifle approach with a giant tax increase is not the way I&#39;d go about it.</p><p>&mdash; Jon Husted, U.S. senator, R-Ohio</p></blockquote> <p>Democrats are offering a different formula and a different funding source. Democratic proposals would replace today&#39;s inflation measure with the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly, which better reflects older households&#39; spending on medical care and housing. Benefits would then be higher than under current law .</p> <p>Rep. John Larson of Connecticut, the top Democrat on the House Social Security Subcommittee, backs the Social Security 2100 Act. It would raise benefits and extend solvency by eliminating the cap on income subject to the payroll tax and adding a net investment income tax on income over $400,000 . Today, the 6.2% tax applies only to about the first $184,000 of income . Sherrod Brown, Husted&#39;s Democratic opponent, also wants to change that ceiling so high earners pay more .</p> <blockquote><p>Americans are depending on their Congress to enhance benefits—not cut them—and Democrats are ready to act.</p><p>&mdash; John B. Larson, ranking member, House Social Security Subcommittee, D-Conn.</p></blockquote> <h2>Why it matters on Tuesday</h2> <p>That matters because the deadline falls inside the coming Senate term. Without new law, continuing revenue would cover about 78% of scheduled retirement and survivor benefits once reserves run out in 2032, and senators elected this week will serve until January 2033 . In Ohio, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates the average cut at $487 a month .</p> <blockquote><p>Social Security&#39;s future is on the ballot this November, and that includes the size of annual COLA adjustments</p><p>&mdash; Nancy Altman, president, Social Security Works</p></blockquote> <p>Voters appear to want action, and they are skeptical of smaller raises. In an August poll commissioned by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, 85% of likely Ohio voters said fixing Social Security is important, including 88% of Republicans, 81% of Democrats and 79% of independents . In an AARP survey of 1,023 adults age 50 and over, taken Sept. 17-21, 76% said a projected 3.5% COLA would not keep up with rising prices .</p> <p>The pattern is that candidates who oppose tax increases on high earners have not said what they would do about the shortfall. Until they do, the raise itself remains one of the options on the table.</p> <p><em>Read the original, with every source linked, at <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/story/aarp-warns-a-flat-rate-cola-would-shrink-raises-for-80-of-social-security-recipients">thegopfiles.com</a>. Republished under The GOP Files' <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/republish">free republishing terms</a>.</em></p> <img src="https://thegopfiles.com/api/rp/aarp-warns-a-flat-rate-cola-would-shrink-raises-for-80-of-social-security-recipients.gif" alt="" width="1" height="1" style="border:0;width:1px;height:1px">

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Sources

1. Duluth News Tribune, “Local View: Protect Social Security cost-of-living adjustments” (2026-10-31). duluthnewstribune.com/opinion/columns/local-view-protect-soc
2. AARP, “Five Ways AARP is Fighting to Protect Social Security” (2026-10-22). aarp.org/advocacy/aarp-fight-for-social-security-2026/
3. AARP Public Policy Institute, “The Flat-Rate Social Security COLA: A Cut By Any Other Name” (2026-08-19). aarp.org/pri/topics/work-finances-retirement/social-security
4. Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, “A Flat-Rate COLA for Social Security” (2026-07-21). crfb.org/blogs/flat-rate-cola-social-security
5. Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, “High Inflation Drives 3.6% Social Security COLA” (2026-10-14). crfb.org/blogs/high-inflation-drives-36-social-security-cola
6. Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, “A Social Security COLA Cap” (2025-10-21). crfb.org/papers/social-security-cola-cap
7. AARP, “Social Security COLA Increase Will Boost 2027 Benefits” (2026-10-14). aarp.org/social-security/cola-increase-for-2027/
8. Forbes, via Yahoo News, “Social Security COLA Rises 3.6% As Congress Faces Bigger Choices” (2026-10-14). yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/social-security-cola-rises-
9. Ohio Capital Journal, via Yahoo News, “Huge bipartisan majorities of Ohioans want a fix to Social Security, new poll shows” (2026-10-30). yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/huge-bipartisan-majorities-
10. Office of Rep. John Larson, “Larson Statement on the 2027 Social Security COLA Announcement” (2026-10-14). larson.house.gov/media-center/press-releases/larson-statemen
11. Republican Study Committee, “RSC Upholds Storied Tradition with Conservative Budget Roadmap to Restore America's Golden Age” (2026-01-07). rsc-pfluger.house.gov/media/press-releases/rsc-upholds-stori
12. Common Dreams, posted by the Office of Rep. John Larson, “Mike Johnson floats Social Security cuts; trustees report shows harm from Trump” (2026-06-09). larson.house.gov/media-center/in-the-news/mike-johnson-float
13. AARP Research, “Social Security COLA 2027 survey” (2026-10-12). aarp.org/pri/topics/work-finances-retirement/social-security
14. Medical Daily, “Medicare Part B Could Rise to $209.50 in 2027 and Take a Bite of Seniors' Social Security Raise” (2026-10-14). medicaldaily.com/medicare-part-b-premium-2027-social-securit
15. National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare, “Trump & GOP Candidates Have Pushed Social Security Privatization, Cuts” (2026-10-09). ncpssm.org/entitledtoknow/trump-gop-candidates-have-pushed-s

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