Social Security's 2032 shortfall becomes a ballot issue as midterms near

With the midterm election on Tuesday, Social Security's money problem has moved onto the ballot. The program's main trust fund is on course to be depleted by late 2032, according to the trustees' most recent report. After that, recipients would face a benefit cut of more than 20% ¹.

The trustees' report puts the cut at about 22% for every recipient if Congress does nothing ². That applies to the retirement fund, formally called Old-Age and Survivors Insurance. Counting the smaller disability fund, the combined date is 2034 ².

Why the money is running low

CBS News reports that the shortfall comes largely from an aging population. More baby boomers are claiming benefits, and fewer workers are paying in, so the program has to draw down its trust funds ¹. The Peter G. Peterson Foundation, a budget-focused research group, adds falling birth rates and lower projected immigration. It also says two recent laws sped up depletion: the Social Security Fairness Act of January 2025 and the One Big Beautiful Bill Act of July 2025 ².

Depletion would not end Social Security. Payroll taxes would keep coming in, but they would cover only part of the scheduled benefits.

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The cap is the main fight

Social Security is paid for mostly by a 12.4% payroll tax, split evenly between workers and employers at 6.2% each. Only earnings up to $184,500 are taxed. Anything above that is exempt ¹.

Many candidates have endorsed raising or scrapping that limit. In an analysis of 20 Senate races, economist Jon Schwabish found that around half of the candidates would support raising or eliminating the cap ¹. His tally covers 41 candidates. Of those, 13 of 17 Democrats and all 4 independents back the change, compared with 3 of 20 Republicans ³.

In Michigan, Republican Mike Rogers answered a question about fixes in an Oct. 25 debate by stressing the need to eliminate fraud. His Democratic opponent, Abdul El-Sayed, backed lifting the cap ¹.

Maine puts the issue front and center

Maine has the oldest population of any state. About 390,000 residents were collecting Social Security as of December 2025, more than a quarter of the state's population ¹. In a September AARP poll of nearly 1,000 likely voters aged 50 and older, 81% said Social Security would factor into their vote ¹.

Democrat Troy Jackson has committed to eliminating the cap. Republican Sen. Susan Collins has proposed a bipartisan commission to study the shortfall. She said it could look at "potentially raising the earnings cap for Social Security taxes," and she vowed not to cut benefits ¹.

Some Republicans are on record for the cap change. Schwabish's analysis credits Collins and Kansas Sen. Roger Marshall as among them, and Ohio Sen. Jon Husted as the one candidate on record opposing it ³.

What happens next

The burden of repairing the program will fall on both sitting and newly elected lawmakers ¹. Congress has put off this problem for decades, and the clock is now short. Martha Shedden of the National Association of Registered Social Security Analysts said the pressure on Congress will be "tremendous" ¹.

That matters because the candidates' positions are now on the record. Voters can compare what each one has said about the cap, benefit cuts and the 2032 date before Tuesday.

The Record

1. Jul 1, 2025The One Big Beautiful Bill Act becomes law; the Peterson Foundation says it sped up trust fund depletion ².
2. Jun 9, 2026The trustees' report projects retirement fund depletion in 2032, with a cut of about 22% ².
3. Oct 25, 2026Rogers and El-Sayed discuss Social Security fixes in a Michigan Senate debate ¹.

Sources

1. CBS News, “Midterm elections put Social Security funding gaps on the ballot” (2026-10-29). cbsnews.com/news/social-security-trust-fund-midterm-election
2. Peter G. Peterson Foundation, “Social Security Will Be Depleted By 2032, and Other Takeaways From the Trustees Report” (2026-06-09). pgpf.org/article/social-security-will-be-depleted-by-2032-an
3. PolicyViz, “Where 2026 Senate Candidates Stand on Social Security's Taxable Maximum” (2026-10-27). policyviz.com/2026/10/27/where-2026-senate-candidates-stand-

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