EPA's own analysis says methane rollback trims oil 11 cents a barrel, adds pollution

At a Texas rally on Tuesday, President Trump said his plan to loosen limits on methane leaks from oil and gas wells "would really bring down the cost." ² The Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) own analysis of the plan tells a different story. It projects that crude oil prices would fall by about 11 cents a barrel in 2027, a drop of 0.14 percent ⁴.

The same analysis projects about 60 million short tons of methane from 2027 through 2050. It also projects 17 million more short tons of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), chemicals that help form smog, and 2.3 million more short tons of hazardous air pollutants ³. The EPA did not put a dollar value on the health effects. It listed the harms from ozone and toxic air pollution as unquantified rather than estimating asthma attacks, emergency visits or cancer cases ³.

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What was announced

Trump and EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin announced the proposal on Oct. 27 in Lubbock, Texas ¹. The event was a campaign rally for Ken Paxton, the Republican state attorney general who is running for the Senate ⁸. The plan would rewrite methane rules for oil and gas operations that the Biden administration finalized in 2024 under the Clean Air Act ¹⁶.

Tonight, I'm officially terminating Biden's expensive and unnecessary methane regulations.

Two changes do most of the work. First, the EPA would create a separate, lighter set of rules for low-producing "marginal" well sites, meaning those producing 15 barrels of oil equivalent or less per day ³. Second, it would end the Super Emitter Program, which lets approved outside monitors flag large leaks spotted by satellites or heat-sensing cameras ¹⁶.

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Those small wells matter much more for pollution than for production. Marginal wells make up about 76 percent of producing wells but only about 6 percent of output. Research cited by the EPA links low-production sites to roughly half of the methane that leaks from well sites ³. Over 20 years, methane traps about 80 times as much heat as carbon dioxide ⁶.

The receipt: pennies on the barrel

The EPA estimates the changes would save about $45 billion through 2050. About $42 billion of that would come from lower compliance costs for producers ⁴. The agency also says the plan could add 210 million barrels of oil and 1.41 trillion cubic feet of natural gas ¹. When the 2024 rule was finalized, it was estimated to cost $18 billion ¹.

For consumers, the payoff is small. The EPA projects that U.S. oil production would rise just 0.09 percent in 2027 ⁴. Semafor's Tim McDonnell wrote that the agency's own analysis shows gasoline prices next year falling by about 0.14 percent at best ⁵.

Here is the math. The national average for gasoline was $4.27 a gallon on Tuesday, up from below $3 at the start of the year. Politico tied that rise to the war with Iran ². A 0.14 percent cut from $4.27 comes to less than one cent a gallon.

When owners and operators can produce, America benefits with lower prices.

Even some energy analysts doubt the rule was what pushed prices up. Andrew Lipow, an oil analyst based in Texas, told Politico that regulations did limit production but were not the main reason prices rose. "I would say that the impact of the conflicts on price over the past year has been far greater," he said ².

Who breathes it

VOCs form ground-level ozone, which can cause coughing and make asthma worse. Long-term exposure to benzene, a known cause of cancer, is linked to blood disorders and leukemia ³. Older adults are among the people most at risk. So are children, pregnant people, oil field workers, and people with asthma or COPD (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) ³.

There were about 793,600 producing onshore oil and gas wells in 2023. About 254,200 were in Texas, 77,800 in Pennsylvania, 64,300 in Oklahoma, 57,700 in Kansas and 49,900 in New Mexico ³. The American Lung Association's Liz Scott said the rollback would also increase VOC pollution, which leaks out along with methane ⁶.

Trump's EPA once again delivers pay-to-play payback to Trump's fossil fuel donors

Rep. Jared Huffman of California, who is expected to lead the House Natural Resources Committee if Democrats win the House, promised his party would push back. "All of these rollbacks of air quality and pollution standards are reckless and against the public interest," he said ². David Doniger of the Natural Resources Defense Council expects a lawsuit if the rule is finalized ⁶.

Republicans support the plan. A spokesperson for Sen. Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia, the top Republican on the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, said she backs the administration's effort to lower prices by cutting regulations ². The Independent Petroleum Association of America said the 2024 rule threatened hundreds of thousands of marginal wells ².

What happens next

The proposal is not final. The EPA will take public comments for at least 45 days after the plan is published in the Federal Register, the government's official daily record of rules ¹. The agency says it will hold a public hearing ¹. Comments can be filed through the federal docket for the proposal ³.

The pattern is clear. Paxton was the first to sue over the 2024 methane rule, and Trump announced its repeal at Paxton's rally a week before Election Day ². Joe Brettell, an energy communications analyst in Texas, doubted the message would win votes: "Trying to use this in a rally a week before the election, that's not exactly 'win one for the Gipper,'" he told Politico ².

The impact is more pollution. It's more methane leaking into the air.

Congress may also have a say. Aaron Weiss of the Center for Western Priorities warned that a pending permitting bill, co-sponsored by Democratic Sen. Martin Heinrich of New Mexico, could make it "almost impossible to modify these standards" later ⁷. That bill is expected to get its first vote the week after the midterms ⁷.

The Record

1. Mar 12, 2025Zeldin announces the EPA will reconsider the 2024 oil and gas methane rule ¹.
2. Jul 31, 2025An interim final rule pushes back several of the 2024 rule's compliance deadlines ¹.
3. Apr 6, 2026The EPA finalizes a first round of changes, including on temporary flaring time limits ¹.
4. Oct 27, 2026Trump and Zeldin announce the broader rollback at a Lubbock, Texas, rally for Ken Paxton ¹⁸.
5. Oct 29, 2026Reports on the EPA's own analysis show a 0.14% crude price drop in 2027 and about 60 million more tons of methane by 2050 ³⁴.

Sources

1. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, “EPA Proposes Major New Revisions to Burdensome, Unworkable Biden-era Oil and Natural Gas Regulations” (2026-10-27). epa.gov/newsreleases/epa-proposes-major-new-revisions-burden
2. Politico (via Yahoo News), “Trump debuts oil rule rollback as Texas wobbles toward blue” (2026-10-28). yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/trump-touts-methane-rollbac
3. Medical Daily, “EPA Methane Rollback Could Add 17 Million Tons of Smog-Forming Pollution From Oil and Gas Wells by 2050” (2026-10-29). medicaldaily.com/epa-methane-rule-rollback-pollution-health-
4. TokenPost (summarizing CNBC), “EPA Projects Methane Rollback Would Cut 2027 Crude Prices by 11 Cents” (2026-10-29). tokenpost.com/news/regulation/43188
5. Semafor (via Yahoo News), “Trump's methane rollback could backfire” (2026-10-29). yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/trumps-methane-rollback-cou
6. NBC News, “Trump says he'll roll back Biden-era methane rules for oil and gas companies” (2026-10-27). nbcnews.com/science/climate-change/trump-methane-rules-leaks
7. KJZZ / KANW New Mexico Public Radio, “President Trump's proposed methane rollbacks mean more pollution, advocate warns” (2026-10-29). kjzz.org/politics/2026-10-29/president-trumps-proposed-metha
8. Fox Business, “Trump ends Biden admin methane rule, says it will unlock 210M barrels of oil” (2026-10-27). foxbusiness.com/politics/trump-announces-end-biden-era-metha

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