Collins and Jackson make final Maine Senate pitches as heating oil costs near $6

Republican Sen. Susan Collins and Democrat Troy Jackson are making closing arguments in a Maine race that could help decide control of the Senate. Newsweek reports that a new Marist poll shows Jackson ahead 49 percent to 47 percent. Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball both rate the race a toss-up ¹.

Take the Marist poll with caution. It was taken October 22 to 25 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 6.6 percentage points, so the 2-point gap is well within the noise ¹.

Two different closing messages

Jackson's new ad frames the race as a choice for the country. He says Mainers will "decide the direction of this whole country." He promises to protect Social Security, get people health care and let them keep more of what they earn ¹.

Is it for the billionaires and Trump, or everyday people like us?

Collins is leaning on her image as an independent. Her new ad features Maine broadcaster Bill Green, who calls her "America's most independent senator" ¹. Democrats objected to his line about "buying a cord of wood," which appeared to nod to Jackson's past as a logger. Jackson called the ad "out of touch" ¹.

From Channel GOPJackson: Collins could defund the Iran warTroy Jackson · 158 plays · captioned, with the source named

Heating oil is the pocketbook issue

About half of Maine homes heat with oil, compared with 3 percent of U.S. homes overall ³. Newsweek reported that the state average was $5.97 a gallon on October 13, up from $3.31 a year earlier ². The Boston Globe, in an October 8 report, said the Iran war disrupted a key oil shipping route and pushed prices up ³.

Last week Collins announced that the Trump administration agreed to release 315,000 barrels from the Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve ¹². Jackson answered that she "cannot erase her responsibility for this crisis with a press release" ². Collins has said she has "repeatedly urged the administration to use every tool available to increase supply and bring down energy costs" ³.

The pattern is clear. Collins has to show she is separate from a president whose Iran war is tied to the price spike. Jackson wants the race to be about that president and those prices ¹².

Other polls and what comes next

A Suffolk University poll and an InsiderAdvantage survey each had Jackson up 49 percent to 47 percent. A Washington Post and George Mason University poll had him ahead 50 percent to 46 percent ¹. Polls underestimated Collins in 2020. She trailed in public surveys, then won with more than 50 percent ¹.

Prediction markets, which are real-money bets and not forecasts, gave Jackson 62 percent on Kalshi and 63 percent on Polymarket on Tuesday ¹. Jackson outraised Collins 4-to-1 last quarter, though he remains behind in overall fundraising and outside assistance ¹.

In-person absentee voting runs through Thursday. As of Monday, 197,104 absentee ballots had been returned and accepted ¹. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3.

The Record

1. Oct 13, 2026Maine's average heating oil price was $5.97 a gallon, up from $3.31 a year earlier ².
2. Oct 21, 2026Collins announced the Trump administration would release 315,000 barrels from the Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve ¹².
3. Oct 27, 2026A Marist poll showed Jackson ahead of Collins 49 percent to 47 percent ¹.

Sources

1. Newsweek, “Susan Collins vs. Troy Jackson: Candidates' Final Appeal to Voters Compared” (2026-10-27). newsweek.com/susan-collins-vs-troy-jackson-candidates-final-
2. Newsweek, “Trump hands Susan Collins an olive branch as she faces tight Maine race” (2026-10-21). newsweek.com/trump-hands-susan-collins-an-olive-branch-as-sh
3. Boston Globe, “Susan Collins, Maine Senate race, heating oil” (2026-10-08). bostonglobe.com/2026/10/08/metro/susan-collinsn-maine-senate

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