A new Fox News Poll finds Maine's U.S. Senate race tied. Republican Sen. Susan Collins and Democrat Troy Jackson each have 49 percent among likely voters 12. The vote is Nov. 3, ten days away.
The poll was conducted Oct. 16-20, after the candidates' Oct. 15 debate. It surveyed 1,514 likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points 12. Among the larger group of registered voters, Jackson led 50 percent to 48 percent, within that group's two-point margin of error 1.
An earlier Marist poll, taken Oct. 1-4, had Jackson ahead 51 percent to 47 percent 1. Newsweek notes that the two surveys measured different groups of voters, so they do not prove a four-point swing. Together, though, they suggest the race has tightened 1. The RealClearPolling average for Sept. 23 to Oct. 20 has Jackson at 48.8 percent and Collins at 47.4 percent 1.
Trump is a weight, and a boost
President Donald Trump is unpopular in Maine. In the Fox poll, 37 percent of likely voters approve of his job performance and 62 percent disapprove 12. Another 53 percent worry that Collins votes with him too often 12.
From Channel GOPJackson: Collins could defund the Iran warTroy Jackson · 153 plays · captioned, with the source named
Still, Collins gets 20 percent support from voters who disapprove of Trump 1. She has won against the polls before. In 2020, every final public poll tracked by RealClearPolling showed her trailing, and she won by nearly nine points 1.
The administration has also handed her some local help. On Oct. 23, the White House announced a seafood plan that specifically promises to help restore the profitability of Maine lobster fisheries 1. A separate tariff change exempts nine categories of Canadian goods used by Maine blueberry, potato, apple and seaweed producers 1.
Sen. Ron Wyden of Oregon, the top Democrat on the Senate Finance Committee, called the moves a "desperate, 11th-hour attempt to save Susan Collins’ political career." 1 Jackson's argument is that Collins is claiming credit for relief from costs created by her own party's trade policy 1.
desperate, 11th-hour attempt to save Susan Collins’ political career.
Enthusiasm and early votes favor Democrats
In the poll, 79 percent of Democrats say they are extremely interested in the election, compared with 61 percent of Republicans 12. Among the most engaged voters, Jackson leads by 16 points 12.
About one in five respondents had already voted, and they favored Jackson by 40 points. Those planning to vote on Election Day favored Collins by 12 points 12. Collins leads among independents by 13 points. Jackson leads among women by five points and among college graduates by 23 1. Those subgroup results carry larger margins of error 1.
Voters are gloomy about money. Only 12 percent say their family is better off than two years ago, while 51 percent say they are worse off 12.
That matters because Republicans control the Senate, and a handful of close races will decide who runs it next year 1. With the race this tight, turnout and a small pool of undecided voters may decide it 1. The Fox poll also asked about worries on each side: 46 percent worry Jackson is too liberal 2.
Collins is no stranger to outrunning her party, but Democrats hold an 18-point enthusiasm advantage.
The Record
- Marist poll, taken Oct. 1-4, had Jackson at 51% and Collins at 47% among registered voters 1.
- Fox News Poll, taken Oct. 16-20, found Collins and Jackson tied at 49% among likely voters 12.
- White House announced a seafood plan that cites Maine lobster fisheries, plus tariff exemptions on nine Canadian product categories 1.
Sources
- Newsweek, “Susan Collins Gets Trump Boost As New Poll Erases Jackson’s Lead” (2026-10-24). newsweek.com/susan-collins-donald-trump-boost-poll-troy-jack
- Fox News, “Fox News Poll: Maine Senate Race” (2026-10-22). foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-nail-biter-maine-senate-r
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