Michigan's two U.S. Senate candidates held their second and final debate Wednesday night at the WXYZ-TV studios in Southfield. They were asked how they would deal with Social Security's coming funding shortfall 16. Republican Mike Rogers, a former congressman, said the answer was rooting out fraud. He called it "a $500 billion shot" 1.
Democrat Abdul El-Sayed warned that talk of fraud can come before cuts. He tied Rogers' answer to Rogers' past support for former President George W. Bush's plan to partly privatize Social Security 1. The two are running for the seat held by retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters, and NBC News calls the race "neck-and-neck" 5.
I can tell you there are a lot of things that we can do to make sure that we get fraud out of the system.
What is at stake for retirees
The Social Security trustees released their yearly report on June 9. It projects that the retirement trust fund, officially called Old-Age and Survivors Insurance, will run short in 2032. That is a year earlier than last year's estimate 8. Medicare's hospital insurance trust fund, which pays for Part A hospital care, is projected to fall short in 2033 8.
If Congress does nothing, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonpartisan budget watchdog, says retirement benefits would be cut automatically by 22% in 2032. The cut would grow to 38% by the end of the century 9. The group has estimated that a cut of that size would cost a typical couple retiring in 2033 about $18,400 a year 9.
From Channel GOPEl-Sayed: Rogers made $14 million advising corporationsAbdul El-Sayed · 126 plays · captioned, with the source named
The Associated Press reported that the earlier date is mainly the result of lower projected birth rates, less immigration, and lower trust fund revenue caused by the tax-and-spending law President Trump signed last summer 8.
Checking the $500 billion
The Detroit Free Press, which covered the debate live, reported no clear evidence of fraud in the program anywhere near the amount Rogers cited. It also noted that blaming fraud for funding problems is a longstanding Republican argument 4.
Social Security's own watchdog has published much smaller numbers. A July 2024 report from the agency's inspector general put the improper payment rate at 0.84% for fiscal years 2015 through 2022. That came to $71.8 billion over the whole period, or about $9 billion a year, and it counts honest mistakes as well as fraud 7. A February 2025 inspector general report found that about 3% of retirement and disability overpayments from 2020 through 2023 were caused by fraud. That averaged nearly $102 million a year 7.
In 2025 the White House defended a similar claim by citing a Government Accountability Office estimate. That estimate says the entire federal government could lose $233 billion to $521 billion a year to fraud, across all programs, not Social Security alone 7. Social Security paid out $1.5 trillion in benefits in fiscal 2024 7.
That matters because Rogers offered fraud as his main answer. By the inspector general's count, all improper payments together, mistakes included, are only a small part of the gap the trustees project. Rogers did call for working toward a bipartisan solution 3, but he did not lay out a revenue or benefit plan on stage.
Be careful when they start talking about fraud because it means that they're going to cut the program.
Rogers' record, and a check on El-Sayed's claim
El-Sayed said Rogers is on record wanting to privatize Social Security and raise the retirement age to 67 2. PolitiFact found that Rogers' record on both points is less clear than El-Sayed made it sound 2.
In 2000, Rogers supported letting people put part of their Social Security tax into a private investment fund. He told a local newspaper, "We need to make it solvent" 3. In Congress, he voted against amendments in 2011 and 2013 that would have barred spending money to privatize the program. PolitiFact points out that voting against such an amendment is not the same as voting for privatization 2.
In 2023, while he was weighing a run for president, Rogers said he was open to changing the retirement age 2. He offered no specific policy 3.
every option's going to have to be on the table.
PolitiFact also found that Rogers has not specifically called for cutting Social Security or Medicare. During his 2024 Senate run he said he does not support such cuts 3. As recently as 2024, a Rogers spokesperson said he did not support raising the retirement age 2. After Wednesday's debate, spokesperson Alyssa Brouillet said he is "committed to protecting Social Security" 2.
El-Sayed's plan
On stage, El-Sayed said he would remove the cap on wages subject to the Social Security payroll tax, so that higher earners pay on more of their income. The Free Press noted that it is unclear whether that change alone would raise enough money 4.
His June platform for seniors, called the Aging Affordably in America plan, also calls for ending taxes on Social Security benefits. It would also end Medicare cost-sharing, such as deductibles and copays, expand Medicare drug price negotiation to all prescription drugs, and add vision, dental and hearing coverage 10. He has not released a funding plan for his broader Medicare for All proposal, though he has acknowledged it would likely raise taxes 2.
Michiganders deserve a future where retirement doesn’t mean anxiety and financial stress
The pattern is clear. One candidate named a specific revenue source, and the other named a fraud total that the government's own audits do not support. Whoever wins will serve a term that runs past 2032, the year the trustees say full retirement benefits are at risk 8.
The Record
- Abdul El-Sayed releases his Aging Affordably in America plan, which includes lifting the payroll tax cap for high earners and ending Medicare cost-sharing 10.
- The Social Security trustees project that the retirement trust fund will run short in 2032, a year earlier than last year's estimate 8.
- In the final Michigan Senate debate, Mike Rogers calls rooting out fraud "a $500 billion shot" for shoring up Social Security 1.
- PolitiFact finds Rogers' record on privatization and the retirement age less clear than El-Sayed claimed 2.
Sources
- WEMU / Michigan Public Radio Network, “Rogers and El-Sayed clash on ICE, Social Security and more in final debate” (2026-10-22). wemu.org/michigan-news/2026-10-22/rogers-and-el-sayed-clash-
- PolitiFact, “Fact check: Abdul El-Sayed, Mike Rogers debate NAFTA, Medicare for All, Social Security” (2026-10-21). politifact.com/article/2026/oct/21/michigan-senate-abdul-el-
- Bridge Michigan, “Fact check: Abdul El-Sayed, Mike Rogers debate trade, money, immigration, more” (2026-10-21). bridgemi.com/michigan-government/fact-check-abdul-el-sayed-m
- Detroit Free Press (via Yahoo News), “Socialism, social security, Trump spotlight El-Sayed, Rogers debate” (2026-10-21). yahoo.com/news/articles/michigans-second-final-us-senate-200
- NBC News, “Abdul El-Sayed and Mike Rogers' second debate clash sets up final sprint in Michigan” (2026-10-21). nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/abdul-el-sayed-mike-roger
- WXYZ-TV Detroit, “Full Recap: Mike Rogers, Abdul El-Sayed face off in final U.S. Senate debate” (2026-10-21). wxyz.com/news/national-politics/america-votes/live-updates-m
- FactCheck.org, “Democrats Question Social Security Administration Changes in Misleading Terms” (2025-04-09). factcheck.org/2025/04/democrats-question-social-security-adm
- AP (via WTOP), “Social Security's retirement trust fund faces a funding shortfall a year earlier than expected” (2026-06-09). wtop.com/business-finance/2026/06/social-securitys-retiremen
- Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, “Analysis of the 2026 Social Security Trustees' Report” (2026-06-09). crfb.org/papers/analysis-2026-social-security-trustees-repor
- El-Sayed for Senate campaign, “Dr. Abdul El-Sayed Announces Platform for Seniors: Aging Affordably in America Agenda” (2026-06-03). abdulforsenate.com/2026/06/dr-abdul-el-sayed-announces-platf
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