Election Day arrives with Congress on the line and results likely to take days

Voting ends today in an election that decides which party controls Congress, and the answer may not come tonight. More than 54 million people had already cast ballots before Election Day, nearly half the total from the last midterm, according to NPR ¹. A separate count from the University of Florida Voting Lab put early voting above 57 million ².

Democrats are favored to win the House. They need to flip three seats, and NPR reports the landscape has shifted in their favor over the past month ¹. In the Senate, Democrats need a net gain of four seats because Vice President JD Vance can break a 50-50 tie for Republicans, ABC News reports ⁴. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 Senate edge ⁴.

On tapeFace the Nation · Nov 2

▶14:46

NPR reports Democrats are favored to flip one Senate seat, North Carolina, while the other races are toss-ups or have Republicans as slight favorites ¹. Five Republican-held toss-up seats besides Maine are in states Trump won by double digits in 2024, which is why Trump campaigned heavily in red states to turn out his base ¹. Republicans' top target is Michigan; a win there would change Democrats' math ¹.

Final polling averages show how close it is. Silver Bulletin gave Democrats an 81.5 percent chance of Senate control at 2 p.m. ET Monday, with an average projection of 53 Democratic seats to 47 Republican seats, Newsweek reported ³. VoteHub put the probability at 68 percent and Decision Desk HQ at 65 percent, projecting a 52-48 chamber ³.

From Channel GOPAds called Vivek a murderer, used the President's familyJD Vance · 177 plays · captioned, with the source named

Costas Panagopoulos, a political science professor at Northeastern University, told Newsweek that small polling leads can be misleading when the ranges overlap.

A 48-44 race that’s within the margin of error is not necessarily implying a lead for one of the candidates.

He also said that identifying likely voters is difficult.

On tapeNBC News · Oct 29

▶6:42

Deciphering who the likely voters are and being accurate about that for Election Day is as much an art as it is a science

When results arrive

Results start coming in at 6 p.m. ET in Kentucky and Indiana, NPR reports ¹. The Associated Press, which calls races, will declare winners in all 435 House districts and the 35 Senate contests on the ballot ⁴. In 2022, the AP called Senate control four days after Election Day and the House eight days after ⁴.

Some states take longer. California, the most populous state, had half its votes counted after Election Day in 2022 ⁴. Alaska and Maine, both with key Senate races, use ranked-choice voting, where the lowest finisher is eliminated and votes are redistributed if no one clears 50 percent, which can significantly delay results ⁴. The AP says it will only declare a winner when there is no scenario for the trailing candidates to close the gap ⁴.

NPR reports that high Republican turnout, since the GOP votes overwhelmingly in person on Election Day, could limit Democrats to one Senate pickup, while low turnout could produce a wipeout of up to six or seven seats and Democratic control ¹. The stakes go beyond Congress: all 435 House seats are on the ballot, voters in 35 states elect senators, 36 states vote in governor's races, and there are more than 150 ballot measures across 40 states, CBS News reports ².

CBS News also reports that most voters in a CBS News/YouGov poll did not believe either party had a plan to make people better off. Kansas voter Tracy Preisser offered a different view.

Your vote is your voice

That matters because, as Columbia University political scientist Donald Green told CBS News, midterms can swing policy on relatively small vote shifts.

because relatively small shifts in the overall vote can lead to dramatic shifts in policy

The Record

1. Nov 8, 2022In the 2022 midterms, the AP called Senate control four days after Election Day and the House eight days after ⁴.
2. Nov 2, 2026Silver Bulletin gave Democrats an 81.5 percent chance of Senate control at 2 p.m. ET Monday, projecting 53 Democratic seats to 47 Republican seats ³.
3. Nov 3, 2026More than 54 million people had cast ballots before Election Day, nearly half the total from the last midterm ¹.
4. Nov 3, 2026Results were expected to start coming in at 6 p.m. ET in Kentucky and Indiana ¹.

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<h2>Election Day arrives with Congress on the line and results likely to take days</h2> <p><em>By The GOP Files Campaign Desk. This article first appeared on <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/story/election-day-arrives-with-congress-on-the-line-and-results-likely-to-take-days">The GOP Files</a> on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.</em></p> <p>Voting ends today in an election that decides which party controls Congress, and the answer may not come tonight. More than 54 million people had already cast ballots before Election Day, nearly half the total from the last midterm, according to NPR . A separate count from the University of Florida Voting Lab put early voting above 57 million .</p> <p>Democrats are favored to win the House. They need to flip three seats, and NPR reports the landscape has shifted in their favor over the past month . In the Senate, Democrats need a net gain of four seats because Vice President JD Vance can break a 50-50 tie for Republicans, ABC News reports . Republicans currently hold a 53-47 Senate edge .</p> <p>NPR reports Democrats are favored to flip one Senate seat, North Carolina, while the other races are toss-ups or have Republicans as slight favorites . Five Republican-held toss-up seats besides Maine are in states Trump won by double digits in 2024, which is why Trump campaigned heavily in red states to turn out his base . Republicans&#39; top target is Michigan; a win there would change Democrats&#39; math .</p> <p>Final polling averages show how close it is. Silver Bulletin gave Democrats an 81.5 percent chance of Senate control at 2 p.m. ET Monday, with an average projection of 53 Democratic seats to 47 Republican seats, Newsweek reported . VoteHub put the probability at 68 percent and Decision Desk HQ at 65 percent, projecting a 52-48 chamber .</p> <p>Costas Panagopoulos, a political science professor at Northeastern University, told Newsweek that small polling leads can be misleading when the ranges overlap.</p> <blockquote><p>A 48-44 race that’s within the margin of error is not necessarily implying a lead for one of the candidates.</p><p>&mdash; Costas Panagopoulos, professor of political science, Northeastern University</p></blockquote> <p>He also said that identifying likely voters is difficult.</p> <blockquote><p>Deciphering who the likely voters are and being accurate about that for Election Day is as much an art as it is a science</p><p>&mdash; Costas Panagopoulos, professor of political science, Northeastern University</p></blockquote> <h2>When results arrive</h2> <p>Results start coming in at 6 p.m. ET in Kentucky and Indiana, NPR reports . The Associated Press, which calls races, will declare winners in all 435 House districts and the 35 Senate contests on the ballot . In 2022, the AP called Senate control four days after Election Day and the House eight days after .</p> <p>Some states take longer. California, the most populous state, had half its votes counted after Election Day in 2022 . Alaska and Maine, both with key Senate races, use ranked-choice voting, where the lowest finisher is eliminated and votes are redistributed if no one clears 50 percent, which can significantly delay results . The AP says it will only declare a winner when there is no scenario for the trailing candidates to close the gap .</p> <p>NPR reports that high Republican turnout, since the GOP votes overwhelmingly in person on Election Day, could limit Democrats to one Senate pickup, while low turnout could produce a wipeout of up to six or seven seats and Democratic control . The stakes go beyond Congress: all 435 House seats are on the ballot, voters in 35 states elect senators, 36 states vote in governor&#39;s races, and there are more than 150 ballot measures across 40 states, CBS News reports .</p> <p>CBS News also reports that most voters in a CBS News/YouGov poll did not believe either party had a plan to make people better off. Kansas voter Tracy Preisser offered a different view.</p> <blockquote><p>Your vote is your voice</p><p>&mdash; Tracy Preisser, Kansas voter</p></blockquote> <p>That matters because, as Columbia University political scientist Donald Green told CBS News, midterms can swing policy on relatively small vote shifts.</p> <blockquote><p>because relatively small shifts in the overall vote can lead to dramatic shifts in policy</p><p>&mdash; Donald Green, professor of political science, Columbia University</p></blockquote> <p><em>Read the original, with every source linked, at <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/story/election-day-arrives-with-congress-on-the-line-and-results-likely-to-take-days">thegopfiles.com</a>. Republished under The GOP Files' <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/republish">free republishing terms</a>.</em></p> <img src="https://thegopfiles.com/api/rp/election-day-arrives-with-congress-on-the-line-and-results-likely-to-take-days.gif" alt="" width="1" height="1" style="border:0;width:1px;height:1px">

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Sources

1. NPR, “It's Election Day. Control of Congress is on the line, and what else you need to know” (2026-11-03). npr.org/2026/11/03/nx-s1-5992757/election-day-live-updates-k
2. CBS News, “"Your vote is your voice": A look at why voting matters” (2026-11-03). cbsnews.com/news/why-voting-midterms-important-2026/
3. Newsweek, “Final Polls Reveal Democrats’ Chances of Flipping the Senate” (2026-11-03). newsweek.com/final-polls-democrats-chances-flip-senate-12651
4. ABC News, “When will we know who controls Congress? It could be a while” (2026-11-03). abcnews.com/Politics/wireStory/controls-congress-137797444

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