Trump promised to beat midterm history. Monday he said 'we gave this a very strong shot'

Two months ago, President Donald Trump promised Republicans he would break one of the oldest patterns in American politics: the president's party losing ground in the midterm elections. He also promised to campaign personally in every race that would decide control of Congress ¹.

On Monday, the day before the vote, he sounded different. Speaking at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool, he said the sitting president "doesn't win the midterms" and added, "we gave this a very strong shot" ⁶⁵. Here is what he said then, what he says now, and what happened in between.

On tapeC-SPAN · Nov 2

▶1:27

Then: A promise to beat midterm history

On Sept. 2, at a dinner in the White House Rose Garden, Trump told Republican lawmakers that control of Congress would come down to about 35 races. He pledged to spend the 30 days before the election campaigning hard in battleground contests, using his 2024 travel schedule as the model, according to the Associated Press (AP) ¹.

He was blunt about the history he was up against, and confident he could beat it ¹.

From Channel GOPOssoff: Trump lines his pockets while Georgians payJon Ossoff · 150 plays · captioned, with the source named

He also made a specific promise about his travel: "I'm going to go to every one of those 35 places, and we're going to see if we can get everyone elected," he said ¹. He told vulnerable Republicans to run on his record, not away from it ¹.

In between: 'I don't feel I have to go to Kansas'

In the final week, that plan wobbled. On Thursday, Oct. 29, Trump canceled in-person rallies set for Kansas on Saturday and Iowa on Sunday. Both states have competitive Senate races ². The Republican National Committee (RNC) said the rallies were dropped because Republicans were "in a strong position in Kansas and Iowa" ³.

On tapeUSA TODAY · Nov 2

▶2:10

Trump told reporters, "I don't feel I have to go to Kansas" ². Asked whether he was tired of traveling, he answered, "You are sick to ask that question" ³. Sen. Roger Marshall of Kansas, the Republican fighting to keep his seat against Democrat Adam Hamilton, offered his own explanation ².

They think that I'm doing so well in the polls that he's probably got better places to spend his time,

Democrats saw it another way. Sen. Jon Ossoff of Georgia criticized Trump and suggested the rallies were canceled "to avoid the humiliation of empty seats and small crowds" ³. David Axelrod, a former senior adviser to President Barack Obama, called the cancellation a "strategic retreat" ².

One day later, the rallies were back on. A source close to the administration announced "Rallies are BACK ON!" and both events were moved to Sunday, with more tele-rallies, where Trump appears by phone or video, added to the schedule ². The Kansas stop was Trump's second rally for Marshall in October, after an Oct. 19 event in Park City ³.

Now: 'A very strong shot' and 'a landslide' on the same day

In Salina, Kansas, on Sunday night, Trump told the crowd, "This is my 30th rally, and I'm closing it down tonight" ⁴. By his own count, that is fewer stops than the 35 places he promised in September, though he did not say exactly which races he had counted ¹⁴. He spent Monday holding tele-rallies from Washington. In the final days of the 2018 midterms, by contrast, he held in-person rallies in three states ⁵.

On Monday morning, he told the New York Post's Pod Force One podcast that he has "never worked the midterms like I have this one" ⁴. That afternoon at the Reflecting Pool, he called Tuesday's vote "the most important midterm, I believe, in our lifetime" and gave a hedged assessment ⁶.

For some reason, the sitting president doesn't win the midterms. But we gave this a very strong shot,

By evening, his tone had changed again. On Fox News' Hannity, he said, "I'm just asking everybody to pretend that I'm on the ballot," and argued that his accomplishments could be "wiped out" if Republicans lose ⁴.

If our people vote, we win in a landslide.

The pattern

The pattern is a president keeping two scripts going at once. One gets his supporters to the polls. The other prepares the country for losses he can blame on history rather than on his record. NBC News reported that Trump was setting the stage for potential Republican losses ⁵.

There was a third script, too. At the Reflecting Pool, Trump called Alaska's Senate race "a fraud, fraudulent election." He was citing a New York Times report that Democrats recruited a candidate with the same name as Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan. Democrat Mary Peltola has denied knowing about any such plan ⁵. A federal judge has already dismissed a Justice Department lawsuit seeking to block certification of Alaska's Senate results, and the department has appealed ⁴.

That matters because the fraud claim came before a single Election Day ballot was counted. Trump also repeated his promise that if Republicans win, "everybody is going to get $5,000" ⁶. In the same podcast interview, he said he would become "Mr. Veto" if Democrats win Congress, though he said he still expected to make some deals ⁴.

In September, he said he could beat the midterm pattern. On the last day before the vote, he described his party's effort as a strong attempt. The voters get the final word today.

The Record

1. Sep 2, 2026At a Rose Garden dinner, Trump pledges to campaign in 'every one of those 35 places' and says he will break the pattern of midterm losses ¹.
2. Oct 29, 2026Trump cancels in-person rallies in Kansas and Iowa, saying 'I don't feel I have to go to Kansas'; the RNC cites a 'strong position' in both states ²³.
3. Oct 30, 2026The rallies are reinstated for Sunday, with more tele-rallies added to Trump's schedule ².
4. Nov 1, 2026In Salina, Kansas, Trump says, 'This is my 30th rally, and I'm closing it down tonight' ⁴.
5. Nov 2, 2026At the Reflecting Pool, Trump says the sitting president 'doesn't win the midterms' but 'we gave this a very strong shot'; on Hannity that night he predicts 'a landslide' ⁶⁴.

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<h2>Trump promised to beat midterm history. Monday he said &#39;we gave this a very strong shot&#39;</h2> <p><em>By The GOP Files Receipts Desk. This article first appeared on <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/story/trump-promised-to-beat-midterm-history-monday-he-said-we-gave-this-a-very-strong">The GOP Files</a> on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.</em></p> <p>Two months ago, President Donald Trump promised Republicans he would break one of the oldest patterns in American politics: the president&#39;s party losing ground in the midterm elections. He also promised to campaign personally in every race that would decide control of Congress .</p> <p>On Monday, the day before the vote, he sounded different. Speaking at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool, he said the sitting president &quot;doesn&#39;t win the midterms&quot; and added, &quot;we gave this a very strong shot&quot; . Here is what he said then, what he says now, and what happened in between.</p> <h2>Then: A promise to beat midterm history</h2> <p>On Sept. 2, at a dinner in the White House Rose Garden, Trump told Republican lawmakers that control of Congress would come down to about 35 races. He pledged to spend the 30 days before the election campaigning hard in battleground contests, using his 2024 travel schedule as the model, according to the Associated Press (AP) .</p> <p>He was blunt about the history he was up against, and confident he could beat it .</p> <p>He also made a specific promise about his travel: &quot;I&#39;m going to go to every one of those 35 places, and we&#39;re going to see if we can get everyone elected,&quot; he said . He told vulnerable Republicans to run on his record, not away from it .</p> <h2>In between: &#39;I don&#39;t feel I have to go to Kansas&#39;</h2> <p>In the final week, that plan wobbled. On Thursday, Oct. 29, Trump canceled in-person rallies set for Kansas on Saturday and Iowa on Sunday. Both states have competitive Senate races . The Republican National Committee (RNC) said the rallies were dropped because Republicans were &quot;in a strong position in Kansas and Iowa&quot; .</p> <p>Trump told reporters, &quot;I don&#39;t feel I have to go to Kansas&quot; . Asked whether he was tired of traveling, he answered, &quot;You are sick to ask that question&quot; . Sen. Roger Marshall of Kansas, the Republican fighting to keep his seat against Democrat Adam Hamilton, offered his own explanation .</p> <blockquote><p>They think that I&#39;m doing so well in the polls that he&#39;s probably got better places to spend his time,</p><p>&mdash; Roger Marshall, U.S. senator, R-Kansas</p></blockquote> <p>Democrats saw it another way. Sen. Jon Ossoff of Georgia criticized Trump and suggested the rallies were canceled &quot;to avoid the humiliation of empty seats and small crowds&quot; . David Axelrod, a former senior adviser to President Barack Obama, called the cancellation a &quot;strategic retreat&quot; .</p> <p>One day later, the rallies were back on. A source close to the administration announced &quot;Rallies are BACK ON!&quot; and both events were moved to Sunday, with more tele-rallies, where Trump appears by phone or video, added to the schedule . The Kansas stop was Trump&#39;s second rally for Marshall in October, after an Oct. 19 event in Park City .</p> <h2>Now: &#39;A very strong shot&#39; and &#39;a landslide&#39; on the same day</h2> <p>In Salina, Kansas, on Sunday night, Trump told the crowd, &quot;This is my 30th rally, and I&#39;m closing it down tonight&quot; . By his own count, that is fewer stops than the 35 places he promised in September, though he did not say exactly which races he had counted . He spent Monday holding tele-rallies from Washington. In the final days of the 2018 midterms, by contrast, he held in-person rallies in three states .</p> <p>On Monday morning, he told the New York Post&#39;s Pod Force One podcast that he has &quot;never worked the midterms like I have this one&quot; . That afternoon at the Reflecting Pool, he called Tuesday&#39;s vote &quot;the most important midterm, I believe, in our lifetime&quot; and gave a hedged assessment .</p> <blockquote><p>For some reason, the sitting president doesn&#39;t win the midterms. But we gave this a very strong shot,</p><p>&mdash; Donald Trump, President, Republican</p></blockquote> <p>By evening, his tone had changed again. On Fox News&#39; Hannity, he said, &quot;I&#39;m just asking everybody to pretend that I&#39;m on the ballot,&quot; and argued that his accomplishments could be &quot;wiped out&quot; if Republicans lose .</p> <blockquote><p>If our people vote, we win in a landslide.</p><p>&mdash; Donald Trump, President, Republican</p></blockquote> <h2>The pattern</h2> <p>The pattern is a president keeping two scripts going at once. One gets his supporters to the polls. The other prepares the country for losses he can blame on history rather than on his record. NBC News reported that Trump was setting the stage for potential Republican losses .</p> <p>There was a third script, too. At the Reflecting Pool, Trump called Alaska&#39;s Senate race &quot;a fraud, fraudulent election.&quot; He was citing a New York Times report that Democrats recruited a candidate with the same name as Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan. Democrat Mary Peltola has denied knowing about any such plan . A federal judge has already dismissed a Justice Department lawsuit seeking to block certification of Alaska&#39;s Senate results, and the department has appealed .</p> <p>That matters because the fraud claim came before a single Election Day ballot was counted. Trump also repeated his promise that if Republicans win, &quot;everybody is going to get $5,000&quot; . In the same podcast interview, he said he would become &quot;Mr. Veto&quot; if Democrats win Congress, though he said he still expected to make some deals .</p> <p>In September, he said he could beat the midterm pattern. On the last day before the vote, he described his party&#39;s effort as a strong attempt. The voters get the final word today.</p> <p><em>Read the original, with every source linked, at <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/story/trump-promised-to-beat-midterm-history-monday-he-said-we-gave-this-a-very-strong">thegopfiles.com</a>. Republished under The GOP Files' <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/republish">free republishing terms</a>.</em></p> <img src="https://thegopfiles.com/api/rp/trump-promised-to-beat-midterm-history-monday-he-said-we-gave-this-a-very-strong.gif" alt="" width="1" height="1" style="border:0;width:1px;height:1px">

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Sources

1. PBS NewsHour (AP), “Trump promises to campaign for Republicans and says they have a winning midterm message” (2026-09-03). pbs.org/newshour/politics/trump-promises-to-campaign-for-rep
2. Al Jazeera, “Trump reverses course, reinstates cancelled campaign rallies” (2026-10-30). aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/30/trump-reverses-course-reinstat
3. Newsweek, “Donald Trump Iowa, Kansas Rallies Back On After Cancellations” (2026-10-30). newsweek.com/trump-cancels-kansas-rally-as-new-poll-shows-re
4. CBS News, “2026 election live updates as candidates make final pitches, Trump says "we win in a landslide" if his supporters vote” (2026-11-02). cbsnews.com/live-updates/2026-elections-monday-november-2/
5. NBC News, “Ahead of Election Day, Trump sets the stage for potential Republican losses” (2026-11-02). nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/ahead-election-day-trump-s
6. CNBC, “Trump focuses on Reflecting Pool in final public speech before election” (2026-11-02). cnbc.com/2026/11/02/trump-midterm-election-speech-reflecting

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