Trump underwater in 39 states on Election Day, new approval map shows

President Donald Trump enters Election Day underwater in 39 states and in every major battleground, according to new polling published Tuesday by Newsweek ¹. Nationally, 33 percent of registered voters approve of his job performance and 60 percent disapprove, a net rating of minus 27 ¹.

The figures come from Civiqs' rolling tracker of registered voters, based on 140,354 responses collected between January 20, 2025 and November 2, 2026 ¹. Newsweek compared the latest state ratings with those recorded when Trump began his second term, calculating net approval as approval minus disapproval ¹.

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Trump's remaining positive ratings are concentrated in Republican territory. Wyoming is his strongest state at plus 18, followed by North Dakota at plus 12, Arkansas at plus 8, West Virginia at plus 6 and Oklahoma at plus 3 ¹. Kansas and South Dakota are evenly divided ¹.

Even in his strongest states, his position is weaker than in January 2025. His net approval has fallen 29 points in Wyoming and West Virginia, 32 points in Idaho and 28 points in Oklahoma ¹. The analysis says his net approval is lower in every state than it was on January 20, 2025 ¹.

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Trump has repeatedly urged Republican supporters to behave as if he were personally on the ballot during a campaign blitz designed to protect the party's congressional majorities ¹. That message makes his own standing particularly relevant as voters decide which party should control Congress ¹.

A professor's view of the map

Costas Panagopoulos, a distinguished professor of political science at Northeastern University, told Newsweek that midterm results are very closely linked to approval of the incumbent president's party ¹.

Panagopoulos said the most likely effect of Trump's rallies is to mobilize committed Republicans rather than persuade undecided voters ¹. He said evidence of Trump's effect in congressional races is mixed at best, with the possibility that his involvement could prove ineffective or even counterproductive for some candidates ¹.

The tracker shows sharp divisions by age and gender. Among voters 50 to 64, 42 percent approve and 52 percent disapprove; among those 65 and older, 43 percent approve and 52 percent disapprove ¹. Women disapprove 66 percent to 28 percent, compared with 54 to 39 among men ¹.

Republicans remain with Trump: 78 percent approve and 12 percent disapprove ¹. Independents split 26 percent approve to 66 percent disapprove ¹.

The White House response

White House spokesman Davis Ingle described Trump as the GOP's "unequivocal leader, best messenger, and unmatched motivator" and said the president is committed to maintaining Republican majorities in Congress ¹. Ingle cited tax cuts, prescription-drug costs, border security, energy production, private-sector employment and retirement accounts as evidence of the administration's record ¹.

Ingle framed the election as a choice between Trump's "winning, commonsense agenda" and what he called Democrats' "extreme liberal policies and obstruction" ¹.

Panagopoulos said congressional elections have become increasingly nationalized, with voters guided more by national issues than local ones, creating a particular challenge for a party that controls the presidency and Congress ¹.

He also urged caution when judging final polls, noting that identifying likely voters is "as much an art as it is a science" ¹. A race showing one candidate narrowly ahead but within the margin of error should be understood as statistically even rather than a firm lead, he said ¹.

That matters because the map is a snapshot of the president's standing, not a result. Republican candidates could still outperform Trump where they have run effective campaigns or face weaker opponents, the analysis notes ¹. Panagopoulos said evidence of a national wave would include numerous competitive races moving in the same direction across a diverse range of states and districts ¹.

The Record

1. Jan 20, 2025Trump's net approval was higher in every state on this date than on Election Day 2026, according to the Newsweek analysis ¹.
2. Nov 2, 2026The Civiqs tracker's 140,354 responses were collected through this date ¹.
3. Nov 3, 2026Trump is underwater in 39 states and every major battleground, with 33 percent approval and 60 percent disapproval nationally ¹.

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<h2>Trump underwater in 39 states on Election Day, new approval map shows</h2> <p><em>By The GOP Files Campaign Desk. This article first appeared on <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/story/trump-underwater-in-39-states-on-election-day-new-approval-map-shows">The GOP Files</a> on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.</em></p> <p>President Donald Trump enters Election Day underwater in 39 states and in every major battleground, according to new polling published Tuesday by Newsweek . Nationally, 33 percent of registered voters approve of his job performance and 60 percent disapprove, a net rating of minus 27 .</p> <p>The figures come from Civiqs&#39; rolling tracker of registered voters, based on 140,354 responses collected between January 20, 2025 and November 2, 2026 . Newsweek compared the latest state ratings with those recorded when Trump began his second term, calculating net approval as approval minus disapproval .</p> <p>Trump&#39;s remaining positive ratings are concentrated in Republican territory. Wyoming is his strongest state at plus 18, followed by North Dakota at plus 12, Arkansas at plus 8, West Virginia at plus 6 and Oklahoma at plus 3 . Kansas and South Dakota are evenly divided .</p> <p>Even in his strongest states, his position is weaker than in January 2025. His net approval has fallen 29 points in Wyoming and West Virginia, 32 points in Idaho and 28 points in Oklahoma . The analysis says his net approval is lower in every state than it was on January 20, 2025 .</p> <p>Trump has repeatedly urged Republican supporters to behave as if he were personally on the ballot during a campaign blitz designed to protect the party&#39;s congressional majorities . That message makes his own standing particularly relevant as voters decide which party should control Congress .</p> <h2>A professor&#39;s view of the map</h2> <p>Costas Panagopoulos, a distinguished professor of political science at Northeastern University, told Newsweek that midterm results are very closely linked to approval of the incumbent president&#39;s party .</p> <p>Panagopoulos said the most likely effect of Trump&#39;s rallies is to mobilize committed Republicans rather than persuade undecided voters . He said evidence of Trump&#39;s effect in congressional races is mixed at best, with the possibility that his involvement could prove ineffective or even counterproductive for some candidates .</p> <p>The tracker shows sharp divisions by age and gender. Among voters 50 to 64, 42 percent approve and 52 percent disapprove; among those 65 and older, 43 percent approve and 52 percent disapprove . Women disapprove 66 percent to 28 percent, compared with 54 to 39 among men .</p> <p>Republicans remain with Trump: 78 percent approve and 12 percent disapprove . Independents split 26 percent approve to 66 percent disapprove .</p> <h2>The White House response</h2> <p>White House spokesman Davis Ingle described Trump as the GOP&#39;s &quot;unequivocal leader, best messenger, and unmatched motivator&quot; and said the president is committed to maintaining Republican majorities in Congress . Ingle cited tax cuts, prescription-drug costs, border security, energy production, private-sector employment and retirement accounts as evidence of the administration&#39;s record .</p> <p>Ingle framed the election as a choice between Trump&#39;s &quot;winning, commonsense agenda&quot; and what he called Democrats&#39; &quot;extreme liberal policies and obstruction&quot; .</p> <p>Panagopoulos said congressional elections have become increasingly nationalized, with voters guided more by national issues than local ones, creating a particular challenge for a party that controls the presidency and Congress .</p> <p>He also urged caution when judging final polls, noting that identifying likely voters is &quot;as much an art as it is a science&quot; . A race showing one candidate narrowly ahead but within the margin of error should be understood as statistically even rather than a firm lead, he said .</p> <p>That matters because the map is a snapshot of the president&#39;s standing, not a result. Republican candidates could still outperform Trump where they have run effective campaigns or face weaker opponents, the analysis notes . Panagopoulos said evidence of a national wave would include numerous competitive races moving in the same direction across a diverse range of states and districts .</p> <p><em>Read the original, with every source linked, at <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/story/trump-underwater-in-39-states-on-election-day-new-approval-map-shows">thegopfiles.com</a>. Republished under The GOP Files' <a href="https://thegopfiles.com/republish">free republishing terms</a>.</em></p> <img src="https://thegopfiles.com/api/rp/trump-underwater-in-39-states-on-election-day-new-approval-map-shows.gif" alt="" width="1" height="1" style="border:0;width:1px;height:1px">

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Sources

1. Newsweek, “Map Shows Donald Trump’s Approval Rating in Every State on Election Day” (2026-11-03). newsweek.com/map-donald-trump-approval-rating-state-election
2. PBS NewsHour, “Live fact check: Election Day 2026” (2026-11-03). pbs.org/newshour/politics/live-fact-check-election-day-2026
3. The Hill, “Trump's closing act before Election Day” (2026-11-02). thehill.com/newsletters/1230-report/6189374-donald-trump-mid

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