Senate Majority Leader John Thune, a South Dakota Republican, has been traveling the country to help GOP candidates in the closest Senate races, The Associated Press reports. He has campaigned in Nebraska, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Mississippi, Kentucky, Florida, Minnesota and Iowa. He is headed to Ohio in the coming days to help Sen. Jon Husted, who faces Democratic former Sen. Sherrod Brown 1.
In Iowa, Thune campaigned Friday with Rep. Ashley Hinson, who is in a tight race against Democratic state legislator Josh Turek for the seat of retiring Sen. Joni Ernst. The AP notes that Republicans could not have pictured Iowa as a tossup a year ago 1.
I'm absolutely convinced that she flat has to win, and if she doesn't, we're not going to be in the majority,
Thune acknowledged the climate is tough for his party. The AP says voters are voicing frustration with President Trump, his war in Iran, and high gasoline and grocery prices 1.
What the odds say
Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority. Vice President JD Vance breaks 50-50 ties, so Democrats need a net gain of four seats, Newsweek reports. Republicans can lose three and still keep control 2.
From Channel GOPBrown: Husted took $116,000 from Epstein co-conspiratorSherrod Brown · 1.9K plays · captioned, with the source named
Forecasts lean toward Democrats, though not by a wide margin. Decision Desk HQ gives Democrats a 57 percent chance of winning the Senate, and RacetotheWH gives them 73 percent. The betting site Polymarket put Democrats at 68 percent as of Friday 2. Newsweek says Hinson is favored in Iowa in both polls and prediction markets 2.
Trump, the filibuster and the war
Thune has taken criticism from the Republican base, and from Trump, over the Senate's failure to pass the SAVE America Act. The bill would require proof of citizenship to vote and voter ID nationwide. Thune supports it, but it cannot reach the 60 votes it needs unless Democrats join in 1.
Trump has pressed Thune to scrap the filibuster, the rule that requires 60 votes. Thune has refused, saying Republicans will need it to stop Democratic bills if they lose power again 1. Both Thune and Hinson have voted with most Republicans against Democratic efforts to stop the Iran war 1.
Thune told Iowans the war is "not going to be a long-term thing" and that fuel prices will eventually come down 1. Democrats on the ground are skeptical. Valerie Conaway Cote, a Democrat from Sioux City, protested outside a Hinson event and said Hinson is "doing Trump's bidding" 1.
he is firmly in Trump's corner, and he seems to bend the knee.
What happens next
Senate Republicans will meet a week after the Nov. 3 election to decide whether to keep Thune as leader. The vote is secret, and no one has stepped up to challenge him 1.
If Republicans keep the Senate, Thune says the agenda would include guardrails on artificial intelligence, housing and tax reform. If Democrats win, he predicts "two years of paralysis" 1.
That matters because the Senate decides which bills reach Trump's desk and who is confirmed to judgeships and top jobs. A few close races, in Iowa, Ohio and elsewhere, may decide who controls it.
The Record
Sources
- PBS NewsHour (AP), “Thune campaigns for Republicans in marquee Senate races in scramble to save majority” (2026-10-26). pbs.org/newshour/politics/thune-campaigns-for-republicans-in
- Newsweek, “Republicans Could Still Keep the Senate. Here's How” (2026-10-26). newsweek.com/republicans-could-still-keep-the-senate-heres-h
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