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Voting Rights · Report · File No. 261113-243

NPR: Black turnout and a Republican drop-off swung six Southern states toward Democrats

An NPR analysis finds Democrats gained in the Deep South because Black voters turned out strongly and Republican-leaning voters stayed home. It matters because the surge followed a Supreme Court ruling that weakened the Voting Rights Act.

By the Campaign Desk · · 2 min read

Every quote in this story (1) was matched word for word against its source. How we work

My clippings
Cindy Hyde-Smith
Cindy Hyde-Smith. Photo: United States Senate, Public domain

Democratic wins in the South this year came as much from who showed up as from who stayed home, according to an NPR analysis of turnout data released Friday 1. The network looked at six states: Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina 1.

Midterm elections normally draw fewer voters than presidential years. In those six states, turnout fell 19% in counties Kamala Harris won in 2024, compared with 26% in counties President Trump won 1. Louisiana's counties are called parishes 1.

The six states swung an average of 22 points toward Democrats, NPR found. The national swing was about 14.5 points 1. NPR says the gap in turnout helped Democrats flip Senate seats in North Carolina, South Carolina and Mississippi, and it narrowed the margin in Louisiana's Senate race 1.

Black turnout and the Supreme Court ruling

NPR reports that earlier special elections and primaries showed a surge in Black voter participation. It was spurred in part by the Supreme Court's decision in Louisiana v. Callais, which gutted part of the Voting Rights Act, the 1965 law that protects minority voters 1. The ruling led to new congressional maps in Tennessee, Alabama, Louisiana and North Carolina 1.

From Channel GOPScott Colom credits Mississippi voters in victory speechScott Colom · 174 plays · captioned, with the source named

In North Carolina, new lines were meant to produce an 11-3 Republican delegation. Democrats are now on track to hold an 11-3 majority instead 1.

Majority-Black counties had turnout of about 85%, compared with 76% in counties where non-Hispanic white residents are the majority 1. Sixteen majority-Black counties cast more Democratic votes than in 2024, 12 of them in Mississippi 1.

In Mississippi, Democrat Scott Colom won about 8,100 more votes than Harris did in 2024. His margin over Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith is just over 5,600 votes as final ballots are counted, NPR reports 1.

A Republican drop-off

Republican nominees drew hundreds of thousands fewer votes than Trump did in 2024 1. In North Carolina, Michael Whatley, a former Republican National Committee chair, got 1.25 million fewer votes than Trump, a drop of roughly 43% 1. Roy Cooper, the former governor, flipped that Senate seat by 20 points 1.

No county in the six states matched Trump's 2024 total. The best Republican showing was in Greene County, Georgia, at 83% of Trump's votes 1. In Georgia, Sen. Jon Ossoff won by 14 points, and all 159 counties shifted toward Democrats 1.

Travis Crum, a Washington University in St. Louis law professor, reached a similar view in a post on the Election Law Blog on Nov. 5 2. He wrote that Callais "sparked a Black backlash that blunted its impact." He also warned that one election cannot show the ruling's long-term effects 2.

Black turnout was massive across the South, as the potential Democratic victory in Mississippi's Senate race demonstrates
Travis Crum, Treiman Professor of Law, Washington University in St. Louis2

Crum said the 2028 and 2030 elections will show more, and that redistricting after 2030 will look very different 2.

That matters for readers who follow voting rights. The turnout surge shows voters responding to a court ruling that weakened the law. But the ruling still stands, and the new maps may matter more in future elections 2.

The Record

  1. Law professor Travis Crum writes that the redistricting Callais spurred 'backfired' in the 2026 midterms 2.
  2. Sen.-elect Scott Colom speaks at a victory rally in Tougaloo, Mississippi 1.
  3. NPR reports Harris-won counties in six Southern states lost 19% of turnout, versus 26% in Trump-won counties 1.
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Sources

  1. NPR, “These two voter turnout trends explain what happened across the South in the election” (2026-11-13). npr.org/2026/11/13/nx-s1-6038701/midterm-election-voter-turn
  2. Washington University in St. Louis, “WashU expert: Callais impact on voting rights extends beyond 2026 midterms” (2026-11-05). source.washu.edu/2026/11/washu-expert-callais-impact-on-voti

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