The number of politically competitive U.S. House seats is shrinking quickly, ABC News reports. North Carolina's 13th District, near Raleigh, is the example the story uses to show how that feeds dysfunction in Congress. 1
In 2022, Democrat Wiley Nickel won the district by about 9,000 votes. Two years later, Republican Brad Knott won it by more than 70,000. 1 The report's summary: "Voters didn't change their minds. Politicians changed their voters." 1
How the district changed
The Republican-controlled state legislature redrew the map. It split the district into an hourglass shape, removed Democratic voters in Raleigh and added rural counties reaching to the Virginia border. 1 Donald Trump received 58% of the vote in the new district. 1
A swing seat is one that a presidential candidate won by 5 percentage points or fewer in the previous election. 1 Over the past year, after Trump sparked a partisan redistricting fight, the number of swing districts fell from 45 to 37. One count put the figure at 96 in 1964. 1
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The biggest divide I found in Congress wasn’t Democrat versus Republican, it was safe seats versus competitive seats
Who really picks the House
When few seats are competitive, the primary election usually decides the winner. Unite America, a group that pushes alternatives to party primaries, calculated that 87% of the House members elected in 2024 were chosen by 7% of the country's voters. 1
NPR reported in February that Cook Political Report analyst David Wasserman said redistricting had cut the competitive range so far that "less than 5% of Americans will truly be deciding who's in control of the House." 2 That was his view of the toss-up races at the time. 2
Nickel, who served one term, said the biggest divide in Congress was not between the parties. 1 He found that no Democratic incumbent had held a seat where Trump took 55% or more of the vote, and he chose not to run again. 1 He is now the Democratic nominee for Wake County district attorney, with no Republican on the ballot, and takes office in January. 1
The least competitive election of our lifetimes will lead to the least accountable and least representative Congress of our lifetimes.
Republicans see a narrow field
Republicans say the small battlefield helps them. A National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman, Mike Marinella, said both sides are fighting over a narrow field. 1
It's a knife fight in a dark alley.
ABC reports Democrats have widened their targets this year because of the unpopular war with Iran and voter anger over high prices. Both parties are spending in Republican areas that would normally not be competitive. 1 Yale political scientist Ian Shapiro said that even in a 2006-style swing, about 20 seats would change hands, not 40. 1
Researchers disagree on how much is due to gerrymandering, which means drawing districts for partisan advantage, and how much is due to Americans living near like-minded neighbors. Multiple studies found that without partisan gerrymandering, the House would have about double the number of competitive seats. 1
What happens next
The midterm election is Tuesday, Nov. 3. Troiano said he expects things to get worse in November. 1
That matters because Shapiro said a Congress filled with safe seats "doesn't do anything besides investigations and positioning." 1 The pattern is that voters in safe districts have little power to punish or reward their representatives. Only a narrow band of swing districts can do that. 1
The Record
Sources
- ABC News (AP), “This US House district was once a political battleground. Now it shows why Congress is dysfunctional” (2026-10-24). abcnews.com/Politics/wireStory/us-house-district-political-b
- NPR via OPB, “How America's most partisan voters hold the most voting power” (2026-02-22). opb.org/article/2026/02/22/how-americas-most-partisan-voters
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